Interesting tropical waves across the Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[skysummit]

They're lining up! The one to the left is the one mentioned above.

[Sjones]

All I can say is WoW

[AnnularCane]

I like the one coming off Africa. A bit far south though, I guess.

[Opal storm]

Still too early to be looking that far east, but some of them might survive to the Caribbean though.

[MiamiensisWx]

While the wave axis is visible, I do not expect significant development. Sfc covergence is weak, and mid-level shear is significant. In addition, the wave lacks a defined low-level circulation, and I have not noticed any signs of a sfc low. See the latest visible loop. Although the mid-level environment is more favorable in the eastern Caribbean, there is a significant convective cap in place across that region. In addition, note the mid-level dry air. As the wave is weak, the Windward Islands graveyard may claim another victim.

If the wave axis survives this journey, the prospects may become more interesting within the western Caribbean. A sfc trough (and sfc low) has been established over the Yucatan Peninsula, northern BOC, and southern GOM. As the Southeast trough moves away from the region, ridging may build northward over the course of the next several days. If I am correct, this might reduce shear and provide a better environment for slow development. The chances may increase as the wave axis interacts with the low pressure environment south of Jamaica and Cuba. The Miami NWS mentions the the ridge in their discussion.

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH WITH THE RIDGE BUT NOT AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. GPS WATER VAPOR IS RANGING FROM 1.85" OVER THE KEYS TO 1.7"
OVER MIAMI TO 1.4" NEAR THE LAKE. LOWERED THE POPS A TAD FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE GFS40 IS GOING CRAZY WITH THE
POPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO LEANED MORE TO THE
NAM/MET DATA. BUT A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING NORTH, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST. POPS WILL DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY
TO SLGT CHC AS DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS IN. POPS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO CHC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY HAD BEEN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS.

In addition, the GFS and Euro indicates that we may observe the development of lower pressures over the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. The reliable Euro ensembles have been providing some hints of a favorable environment. As I can't find the Euro link, I'll post the latest GFS data.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Note the higher sfc pressures over the region. This provides an easterly flow regime and it aids the development of low-level systems. This could reduce low-level shear. What do you think?

[skysummit]

Still too early to be looking that far east, but some of them might survive to the Caribbean though.

Wait...you just contradicted yourself. We know nothing will form that far east. I'm watching them because they WILL move west. Each one looks better and better. If this continues, the Atlantic will be lit up like Circus Circus come August.

[AnnularCane]

Still too early to be looking that far east, but some of them might survive to the Caribbean though.

I'm afraid I briefly forgot it was only early June.

[Thunder44]

"AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS
SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 5N TO 10N
AROUND THE WAVE. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 49W AND 58W ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 22N52W TO
15N59W TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W."

Getting ready to move into a "little more favorable area".

Water Vapor Imagery is showing an ULL to the NE of Leeward Islands. And it moving westard in tandem with it. The increasing shear from the ULL is what is enhancing the convection. This wave will be getting ripped apart before it gets into the Carribean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

Water Vapor Imagery is showing an ULL to the NE of Leeward Islands. And it moving westard in tandem with it. The increasing shear from the ULL is what is enhancing the convection. This wave will be getting ripped apart before it gets into the Carribean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Maybe so, but the axis will still be there.

[StormTracker]

C'mon ride this train-let's ride it, c'mon ride it, it's the choo-choo train!!!

[southerngreen]

can't help thinking of the mechanical pitcher spitting out baseballs in a batting cage.

[AnnularCane]

Everybody line up now. No pushing or shoving. No cutting in front of the wave ahead of you. Just march off Africa one at a time, in an orderly fashion.

[O Town]

Ha, ha. I like that AnnularCane.