Interesting Discussion from TPA NWS

[Berwick Bay]

Many great posts in this thread. Here's the crux of what you're saying (as I see it). There are BIG changes in progress as we speak, and those changes are occuring in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level lows (possible Tutt's) and even lowering pressure at the surface in some areas. Whats happening is the "set up". Large forces are at work, setting the table for tropical development. But we can't get too antsy, we're only setting the table right now. Its the interaction of these forces which will produce a possible location for tropical develoment. That location might not be apparent to many at this time (I strongly favor the W Central Gulf), yet at this point you might think that the focus would be in the E. But remember the forces are still in a state of flux, and it is not easily apparent to the naked eye where that prime area for development will occur. I still think that "niche" or spot will be at about 24N and 92W. Upper level Low in E Gulf, but upper level high in W Gulf (better for development in West). Moisture flow at surface around instability of Upper Level Low in East. Storms or pulses at surface flung around the Upper Level Low away from the center toward the West. Interaction boundary between ULL to East and Upper Level High to West. In that area of contrast, a classic wave effect with Upper Level High beginning to burgeon North with accumulated moisture at its periphery, we might look for develoment. NW of NW tip of Yucutan. 24N and 92W. Big changes are happening.

[TampaFl]

Friday NWS Tampa AFD:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 080720
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
KJAX. THIS LOW IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 06Z OBS INDICATE THE AXIS IS ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW FORECAST BY GFS/NAM/UKMET TO
SLIDE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE STATE TODAY...THEN TO WESTERN CUBA
SATURDAY...AND TO THE YUCATAN SUNDAY. NAM DEVELOPS MORE OF A SURFACE
REFLECTION TO THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH BASICALLY KEEP
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAKENING
IT. GIVEN LOCATION OF UPPER LOW...EXPECT SOME DRIER AIR TO BEGIN
FILTERING IN TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE HAVING ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...POPS GO BACK
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.

WITH TODAY`S STORMS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO MAY AGAIN SEE SOME HAIL AS WELL AS
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. READINGS WARM UP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE AROUND NORMAL


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 73 90 75 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 89 71 89 72 / 70 30 50 20
GIF 91 70 92 72 / 30 20 30 10
SRQ 89 71 90 71 / 50 20 30 10
BKV 90 68 92 68 / 40 20 30 10
SPG 89 76 89 77 / 50 20 30 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG

[HurricaneBelle]

great... my wife and son just left out of Jax on a cruise to the Bahamas.

For the life of me, I can't understand why anyone would take a Bahamas or Caribbean cruise during hurricane season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Intriguing...might get some rains from this low
here in florida

[O Town]

great... my wife and son just left out of Jax on a cruise to the Bahamas.

For the life of me, I can't understand why anyone would take a Bahamas or Caribbean cruise during hurricane season.

Probably because the chance of a storm effecting you in a big way is slim.
All 3 of my cruises to the Bahamas was during season and all 3 we had great weather.
N2FSU, looks like they are getting some cloud cover but not much in the way of rain.
http://bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/