Subtropical Jet

[SouthFloridawx]

Basically I am posting this because I look at different model runs every night. I have been noticing a pattern developing in the Pacific, that I believe will suppress the southern jet that has been so persistent. Let's first take a look at a wind shear @ 00Z tonight...

[web]http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2007051600&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=000hr[/web]

It is plainly evident where the jet is located on that map.

For color purposes here is the cimss map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Now finally I'd like to post a couple of more images...

Here is the GFS 250mb wind/heights 0 hour @ 00Z This evening...
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/9944 ... 00myn3.gif

You can clearly see the jet split west of 160W.

Next i'm posting the GFS 250mb @ 120 Hours 00Z this evening...

You can see that the jet is moving farther north... It is no longer south of 20N.
http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/7734 ... 20mdb6.gif

You can watch the loop here @
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml



Here is the shear map in 144 hours

[web]http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2007051600&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=144hr[/web]

Notice in the Pacific How much less prevalent the shear is than in my first picture above.


I think we'll be seeing lowered shear sooner than we think, when the subtropical jet moves out.

Anyway... what do you guys think?

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the GFS forecast again, I am noticing a pattern which will affect our weather in 2+ weeks. Currently we have a jet split going on out in the pacific. That is causing Upper Level winds to race from the pacific into the GOM/Caribbean.

I have been seeing a pattern in GFS that has consistently been showing that the southern jet will merge back north with the main jet. I don't like to use long range models to fix in on specific features, but I noticed that when a model shows something over and over again, it shouldn't be discounted. I think the shear in the Basin mostly, the Caribbean and then the GOM... is going to slack off quite a bit in a couple of weeks from now. What we will have in our basin is lower than normal shear from the Below normal sst's in the Eastern Pacific.

Here is the GFS loop...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_mu.shtml

06Z GFS 00 Hour





The wind shear forecast is a good example and it's only for Graphical Representation here...

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007051906&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=000hr[/web]

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007051906&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=168hr[/web]

It will be interesting to watch.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually that is a fairly typical state of affairs for us as the STJ moves north with the STH as it moves towards it's monsoon position in response to heating in the interior of the Continent. Should mention that the same occurs in Asia as the Summer monsoon begins to develop there.

Steve

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for the info Steve...

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS suggesting that the subtropical jet will merge with the Northern Jet this week. Should have a impact on our weather soon.

[wzrgirl1]

please elaborate as to the impact you think it may have

[SouthFloridawx]

One impact it is going to have is mean a lot less west to east windshear.