Possible development in the western Caribbean

[wjs3]

I have a question if that wave along 52w continues west can it keep on going west even though all the convection is being pulled northward into the Central Atlantic?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html


Essentially it would be a naked wave until it enters the western Caribbean,as what Miamiensiswx was eluding to.

Hey, Boca...

I grew up in Pompano. Love it down there and miss it a great deal.

Sure it could continue, even as a naked wave. As I understand it, a wave doesn't need convection to be a wave. As you know, Sometimes you even identify a wave only by turning in the cumulus field--not by any convection associated at all.

The wave itself will probably survive and provide some mild surface convergence as it slides west. Whether or not more than that happens remains to be seen.

Have a good night.

WJS3

[boca]

Thanks for the reply wjs3, I grew up in Coral Springs(boy has that changed). Lets see where Chantal will form in the western Caribbean or like BB stated 24n 92w in the Gulf.Its like watching a TV show wait and see what happens next week.

[wjs3]

Hate to date myself, but Coral Springs was off the western edge of civilization when I was last down there. We NEVER went west of University. There was nothign there.

Every week is like a cliffhanger in the tropics.

Looks like that wave is still around, not surprisingly...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED S OF 13N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
51W-60W.

WJS3

[boca]

The latest 0z NAM on the 10th show a 1008mb low in the SW Caribbean and a low of the northern coast of the Yucatan.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[skysummit]

The NAM doesn't neccesarily show a "low" north of the Yucatan, but it does show cyclonic rotation of precipitation at 84 hours.

[drezee]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO
AFFECT TRINIDAD AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH HELPED IN
ITS PLACEMENT. THE WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL VIA SATELLITE DERIVED
850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TROUGH FROM THE ATLC TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 57W-62W. THIS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[TheRingo]

looking better organized.

[HURAKAN]

Not as organized. There is a lot of dry air in the Eastern Caribbean and still the shear is not that favorable.

[Frank2]

Speaking of shear - this from yesterday afternoon's Miami NWS discussion:

...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD OVER AREA AS 300-200 MB
JET OF 100+ KT MOVES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PROVIDES
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The shear actually is not that bad in the Caribbean right now... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html ...and it seems to be diminishing in a few places too.

[boca]

I wonder if that wave in the islands as it moves west will initiate development in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

[HURAKAN]

The convection is being caused mainly by the shear produced by the ULL.

[SouthFloridawx]

205 twd
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ALONG 47W/48W S OF 11N
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THIS
MORNING'S DISCUSSION...SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THE
FEATURE IS MUCH FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THESE DIAGRAMS
SHOW GOOD WWD CONTINUITY IN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS WHICH BEGAN TO
FADE NEAR 35W ON JUNE 4TH. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND A NOTABLE
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ SEEN ON VIS PICTURES...THIS PSN APPEARS
REASONABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN CARIB ISLANDS ALONG
61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE REGION FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 56W-63W...WHICH INCLUDES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE
DOES HAVE SOME STRUCTURE...EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES...
WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST
AMPLITUDE IS OFF THE SFC. UPPER W TO SWLY FLOW ALONG AND E OF
THE WAVE AXIS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...IS THE CULPRIT IN SPREADING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN A
LINEAR FASHION WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95233 , will play a part in your thread Daniel. It will be interesting to see if the wave and the leftovers from the front interact in a few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like in 72 hours this wave will be in the central Caribbean..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Might once again become something to seriously watch at that point as it moves into the western Caribbean a day or two later.

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS showing a little area of low pressure forming, moving Northward towards and over Cuba, and out to sea.

Most models are showing low surface pressures during the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Currently there is a TW moving into the W. Caribbean. We'll see if it fires up convection there, and then another wave in a couple of days should stir things up a bit more.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/




A little convection starting to fire this morning, in the SW Caribbean and E. Pac. Low level convergence is not lacking, although wind shear remains to be a problem.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[drezee]

looks better now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[NDG]

I give this disturbed area breaking away from the ITCZ in the south central Caribbean better chance of development if it stays clear of Central America if it moves NW slowly into the W Caribbean.

[ronjon]

Looks like the GFS & NAM with some support from the NOGAPs wants to develop low pressure in the southern caribbean and move it slowly NW into the western caribbean and then northward into either the GOM or across the FL peninsula by next weekend. The GFS has been hinting at this situation by developing lows on and off the last several runs. In fact, the GFS seems to want to split the energy from the western caribbean system with one batch heading N-NE over FL and other into the Yucatan and then northward into the central GOM. Don't know this far out how this will evolve, but there looks to be some kinda of disturbance that will move north out of the western caribbean by Thursday or Friday next week. The convective blob just of north of Panama this morning may be the seedling for this system.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml