See How Fast Things Change??

[Berwick Bay]

Remember the overall negativity on the board toward possible development (just in the last 24-48 hours?) Its the reason I started the thread "Want to Play a Game?" "Just pretend that you believe that development might be a possibility". Well look at the change. Sure, we still might not get development in the NW Carribean. But now it is a distinct possibility. About the only member that I can remember who really gave it a pretty good chance (48-72 hours ago) was Caneman. Things change quickly.

[Jagno]

BB; That's why they call it "forecasts or predictions". It's not that someone is right or wrong. Everyone just takes what they observe and bases their best guess upon current and future conditions. Either way, I'm so thrilled to see everyone being alot more civil and respectful towards one another.

[caneman]

Thanks BB. This is a hot spot area. While METS and other sometimes can get too caught up in current synoptics, (Most of the time they are right) I think they can be a little biased because rightfully so they don't want them to develop and most actually don't develop. I see things as ever changing. And of course it helps living here on the West coast of Florida knowing this area very well and how storms this time of year can and do develop under less than ideal conditions and in the same area. And some times actually get stonger with proper positioning of a ULL so throw that in with an area or persistance and it catches my eye. Even if something does develop I don't think it will amount to much but hopefully lots of rain

[dwg71]

You kind of might almost have some sort of a chance for some possible potential development down the road in the Atlantic basin because of these ripe conditions if, big IF everything falls into the right place over the next 5 months, of course that is all just my opinion.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know about distinct possibility... I made a prediction on something troipcal heading towards florida in 72-120 hours. That was based on the current synoptics, as I understand them and taking a look at the short term models. It's always awesome to try to guess when something might happen, you might want to start challenging yourself to trying to find reasons why it will or why it won't. Why will the circumstances be ideal or not for development. I do that a lot actually, sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong, but in the end I learn why a system can and can not form when certain things happen.

Anyway... I said the SE Bahama's/T&C so, that's what I'm sticking with...

[HurricaneRobert]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN