Tropical wave that was associated with DEAD 93L.

[SouthFloridawx]

Taking a look at the latest Surface Map from the TPC, 93L is now classified as a tropical wave. I was particularly interested in the feature because of the latittude of the axis. This is by far the Northern Most wave this year. See surface map and 72 hour surface map forecast below.

If you compare how far North this wave is to all the others we have had thus far, this will be the wave that may have a chance to develop. As the wave moves towards the Caribbean, not only will we have to watch there, but also in the Bahamas and to the North of the Islands... Remember just because there is no convection associated with the wave doesn't mean it won't move west. It will likely continue to move west because of the lack of development, as we saw in 2005. Maybe we'll see something come from it.... Next week.

Showing the Position of the Wave in 72 Hours according to the TAFB.


Also to not is the 500mb ridge finally trying to set up later in the week with a surface ridge to the north of the wave.




We'll have to monitor this wave and see what happens....

I'm not sure if this is going to develop or not, but thought I'd bring it up.

[alan1961]

Think you can forget 93L SouthFla, all but dimished

[skysummit]

Think you can forget 93L SouthFla, all but dimished

You can't say "diminished". It still has an axis and therefore still is a wave.

[alan1961]

The only wave it has is for the fishes in the sea , look to the south..the african wave train has started

[SouthFloridawx]

Think you can forget 93L SouthFla, all but dimished

Are you serious?

[SouthFloridawx]

Also to note is, all but diminished is not a phrase that is used by the TPC.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 6N TO 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
WHILE THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS IT REMAINS ABSENT OF ANY DEEP
CLOUDINESS OR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

72 Hour forecast showing the Northern Extent of the wave moving just to the north of the Islands.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/atls ... estBW2.gif

[HURAKAN]

I will keep an eye once it enters the Caribbean. If conditions are favorable, we may see something. Nonetheless, it has a much better chance in the EPAC.

[hawkeh]

I wouldn't count it out yet, I think theres a small possibility of development once it gets in the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't count it out yet, I think theres a small possibility of development once it gets in the Caribbean.

Yeah... I'm not and wasn't looking for imminent development. Perhaps I should have clarified myself, as I meant that I see it down the road 4-10 days as the wave that may have the best potential yet. If it did develop that far east, it would be taken northward into the Atlantic. I look back to 2005 and all those waves that moved west, void of convection, where they sprouted in Caribbean and home grown waters.

[wxman57]

The actual disturbance that was 93L is not entering the Caribbean, it's already north of 19N. But there still is a weak wave axis to the south that will likely reach the Caribbean. Fortunately, tropical waves have no memory, meaning it won't remember that it was once a strong disturbance with an LLC. It'll just be a plain, ordinary tropical wave just like the dozen or so which have already crossed the Caribbean in recent weeks. It won't have any better chance of development than the waves out ahead of it. Wind shear in the Caribbean is very high, so development chances are excedingly low, maybe 2-5% at best for any wave in the Caribbean Sea now.

So don't focus on the fact that it once was the mighty 93L, that's history. Just a regular wave now, weaker than some others out there.

[SouthFloridawx]

The actual disturbance that was 93L is not entering the Caribbean, it's already north of 19N. But there still is a weak wave axis to the south that will likely reach the Caribbean. Fortunately, tropical waves have no memory, meaning it won't remember that it was once a strong disturbance with an LLC. It'll just be a plain, ordinary tropical wave just like the dozen or so which have already crossed the Caribbean in recent weeks. It won't have any better chance of development than the waves out ahead of it. Wind shear in the Caribbean is very high, so development chances are excedingly low, maybe 2-5% at best for any wave in the Caribbean Sea now.

So don't focus on the fact that it once was the mighty 93L, that's history. Just a regular wave now, weaker than some others out there.

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

[wxman57]

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

I would argue that if anything, it has LESS potential to develop as it has no convection. Again, it doesn't remember it was strong once. It's just a plain, ordinary, convection-free wave now. What it was before has no impact on its chances for development in the future.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

I would argue that if anything, it has LESS potential to develop as it has no convection. Again, it doesn't remember it was strong once. It's just a plain, ordinary, convection-free wave now. What it was before has no impact on its chances for development in the future.

Then came KATRINA

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

I would argue that if anything, it has LESS potential to develop as it has no convection. Again, it doesn't remember it was strong once. It's just a plain, ordinary, convection-free wave now. What it was before has no impact on its chances for development in the future.

Ok, I don't think your getting my point here. I know it is void of convection now... I know it has no memory, I'm not trying to compare it to what it once was. Just because it has no convection now, doesn't mean that in 4 days + it will not. I just noticed that it is the northern most wave so far this year/season. Perhaps when it arrives in the Caribbean and to the north of the Islands, perhaps conditions may or may not be favorable. I'm not calling for development, but merely taking notice to what it is now, and what the surface forecasts are.

[wxman57]

Ok, I don't think your getting my point here. I know it is void of convection now... I know it has no memory, I'm not trying to compare it to what it once was. Just because it has no convection now, doesn't mean that in 4 days + it will not. I just noticed that it is the northern most wave so far this year/season. Perhaps when it arrives in the Caribbean and to the north of the Islands, perhaps conditions may or may not be favorable. I'm not calling for development, but merely taking notice to what it is now, and what the surface forecasts are.

Yes, I see your point. However, any convection that is associated with the lower part of this wave is now south of 8N, just the same as with the wave ahead of it approaching S. America and the wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. No difference in latitude.

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.



I'm not 100% sure on this, and it's purely speculation... I believe that because of the northern latitude of this wave may interact with the area that, for example the Canadian is spinning up. Here is the 72 hour forecast of the wave:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

It maybe be the thing that induces convection and create some type of low in the NW Caribbean/S. GOM.

No time to post my reasons, just wanted to point it out. I'll post more on this later...

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 60W. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W NEAR 25
KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
WITHIN ITCZ. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

[Rainband]

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

I would argue that if anything, it has LESS potential to develop as it has no convection. Again, it doesn't remember it was strong once. It's just a plain, ordinary, convection-free wave now. What it was before has no impact on its chances for development in the future.

Then came KATRINA

bravo

[benny]

Actually I didn't point that out at all. The main point of my thread was it is the northern most tropical wave. I don't care if it was a somewhat organized area before, I do realize that doesn't matter. Yes, that is true... the Caribbean has wind shear, but I think it's kind of hard to tell what it will be down the road in, days to come. IMO, out of all the waves thus far, if any have had potential, I think this one, has more of a potential than any, based on the it's latitude.

EDIT: Changed title...

I would argue that if anything, it has LESS potential to develop as it has no convection. Again, it doesn't remember it was strong once. It's just a plain, ordinary, convection-free wave now. What it was before has no impact on its chances for development in the future.

Then came KATRINA

bravo

Of course, it isn't August either