I'll play. I give the W-NW Caribbean the best chances of development in the basin. Now...it's not a great chance but it has the best chance. Here's why (IMHO):
1) Pre-existing disturbance - There is already disturbed weather in the NW CAR.
2) Wind shear is relatively low and should be a little anticyclonic by the weekend. It already is pretty divergent.
3) It is on the SW edge of the subtropical 500 mb ridge...which is an area that is relatively unstable.
4) The sfc flow is already cyclonic. Note teh slow SW moving flow over the Yucatan channel...and the surge moving WNW through the western Caribbean...this is usually good for development.
So...there are my reasons. I am not saying it will develop...but there is no other place in the basin where the ingredients are as good. If it did form...it wouldn't move much that's for sure....maybe a slow NW drift.
I Want To Play A Game!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Air Force Met
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
-
Berwick Bay
Air Force Met wrote:I'll play. I give the W-NW Caribbean the best chances of development in the basin. Now...it's not a great chance but it has the best chance. Here's why (IMHO):
1) Pre-existing disturbance - There is already disturbed weather in the NW CAR.
2) Wind shear is relatively low and should be a little anticyclonic by the weekend. It already is pretty divergent.
3) It is on the SW edge of the subtropical 500 mb ridge...which is an area that is relatively unstable.
4) The sfc flow is already cyclonic. Note teh slow SW moving flow over the Yucatan channel...and the surge moving WNW through the western Caribbean...this is usually good for development.
So...there are my reasons. I am not saying it will develop...but there is no other place in the basin where the ingredients are as good. If it did form...it wouldn't move much that's for sure....maybe a slow NW drift.
I like your comment about movement should anything develop. I tend to agree (a slow NW drift), not N. Any movement N should then send it NE shortly thereafter. I would think NW is climatologically called for.
0 likes
-
vacanechaser
- Category 5
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
- Location: Portsmouth, Va
- Contact:
Air Force Met wrote:I'll play. I give the W-NW Caribbean the best chances of development in the basin. Now...it's not a great chance but it has the best chance. Here's why (IMHO):
1) Pre-existing disturbance - There is already disturbed weather in the NW CAR.
2) Wind shear is relatively low and should be a little anticyclonic by the weekend. It already is pretty divergent.
3) It is on the SW edge of the subtropical 500 mb ridge...which is an area that is relatively unstable.
4) The sfc flow is already cyclonic. Note teh slow SW moving flow over the Yucatan channel...and the surge moving WNW through the western Caribbean...this is usually good for development.
So...there are my reasons. I am not saying it will develop...but there is no other place in the basin where the ingredients are as good. If it did form...it wouldn't move much that's for sure....maybe a slow NW drift.
what he said!!!
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bobd33, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], wileytheartist and 100 guests