June 16 00 UTC ECMWF model run

[artist]

I noticted the HPC isn't too concerned:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS CLOSED SFC-500 MB LOW SHOWS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES THAN THE OTHER MODELS ALONG
THE GULF COAST DAYS SIX/SEVEN. NONE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD A CLOSED LOW SFC/ALOFT IN THE REGION...SO THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED THE LEAST. THE GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN
GLOBAL/UKMET MODELS DO AGREE THAT A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

nice to see you posting again stormcloud! Hope to see you here more.

[stormcloud]

Thanks! 0z ECMWF shows no Gulf low. However the 6z GFS places and then loses a surface low underneath the upper system. At best maybe some rain for the southeast.

[Meso]

The 114 hour GFS 12z run : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114s.gif

[flwxwatcher]

Thanks! 0z ECMWF shows no Gulf low. However the 6z GFS places and then loses a surface low underneath the upper system. At best maybe some rain for the southeast.

Yes, saw the latest EURO had no Gulf Low.. 12Z GFS has a weak low in the NE Gulf .. 06Z DGEX developes a Gulf low also.. Keeping fingers crossed we can get some rain here in Central Florida from this later this week.