Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:10 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#22 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:33 am

Wow...that eastern low is sitting right on top
of me...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#23 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:36 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow...that eastern low is sitting right on top
of me...


You're sitting in a boat north of the Bahamas? Wow...what a way to celebrate the 4th!!! LOL
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#24 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:38 am

Oh whoops...I mean the western low
the one over tampa bay LOL
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4830
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#25 Postby ronjon » Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:54 am

Here's a nice VIS SAT of the Tampa Bay low pressure. Looks to be elongated W-E but there could be a smaller center just east of Tampa. The sinking air that Aric mentions is due to an ULH over the western gulf. This high will slowly retrograde west. Shear is light in the eastern gulf - less than 10 kts. The Melbourne NWS office mentions a 1014 mb low near Tampa. Just have to see if it pushes westward into the GOM as the NAM, UKMET, and Euro predict.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=5
0 likes   
Top
caneman

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#26 Postby caneman » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:02 pm

Ronjon,

I'm afraid we may have a wash out for fireworks tonight beause of this low. Very tropical aroud here with lots of cloud cover, has the feel and look of a low trying to get going.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15455
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#27 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:13 pm

Had some nice tropical showers pass by my house, moving east to west w/dark clouds, very warm & humid conditions, very little cooling during the showers, thus not much if any lightning, atmosphere is warm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#28 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:20 pm

I would say that the one to watch is over in the GOM actually..

NAM and UKMET transition this low into a warm core system...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07070412/3.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07070406/44.html

Aric Dunn wrote:Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15455
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#29 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:29 pm

I would agree with SFLWX that the one to watch is the one near FL, where pressures are slightly lower than by the Bahamas, the one by the Bahamas is attached more to the dying back door cold front and has a weaker spin mostly in the mid levels.

SouthFloridawx wrote:I would say that the one to watch is over in the GOM actually..

NAM and UKMET transition this low into a warm core system...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07070412/3.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07070406/44.html

Aric Dunn wrote:Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#30 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:46 pm

Satellite/Radar composite of the Tampa area around 12:35pm showing the elongated low. If thunderstorm activity could increase in the eastern Gulf, I'll get more concerned. As for now, just something else to watch.

Image
0 likes   
Top
TheRingo
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 170
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:46 pm

#31 Postby TheRingo » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:49 pm

not to mention the water temps in the gulf are 29 to 30 degrees.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#32 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:49 pm

As usual...the rain has missed my location...grr...
stupid rain missing me...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#33 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:53 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:As usual...the rain has missed my location...grr...
stupid rain missing me...


Well you can have all the rain back here in Texas...Im so sick of it right now and it actually was raining here a few minutes ago
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#34 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:55 pm

Thank you...go ahead and PM me some rain :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#35 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:46 pm

>>Just to clarify... over a 1) surface (not upper) and 2) low (not high)pressure of 1012.

Yeah my bad, I had the heights right and the closed isobars backwards. It identifies okay conditions. I haven't looked at anything all days, but I'm going to see if the 12z or even 18zs have any concurring data.

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:
Contact beachbum_al

Re: Possible Development in the Eastern GOM?

#36 Postby beachbum_al » Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:48 pm

Rain didn't miss me. It has been raining in South Alabama all afternoon. Grrr! :flag:
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#37 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 6:22 pm

what are the odds of getting everyone to post in one thread.. i would say the "off the Fl coast" would work.. since we dont know where it will emerge.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: redingtonbeach and 39 guests