Change in pattern coming?

[N2FSU]

Could this open the door for anything coming out of the Atlantic?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE NE FLOW BECOMING MORE NW AND
SUBSIDING. BEFORE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGED...A FEW STORMS
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT
AND THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER FL...DID MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO
HIT PORTIONS OF THE SE FL BIG BEND. IN FACT...A FAIRLY HEALTHY CELL
IS LINGERING OVER DIXIE COUNTY...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE PUSHING BACK TO THE EAST. ALSO...JUST TO OUR WEST...A
LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...FORMING AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP AND EJECTS OUT OF TX...IS HEADING DUE EASTWARD
TOWARDS SE AL. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKENING STEADILY WITH TIME WITHOUT
THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME INSOLATION...SO CURRENTLY EXPECT SE AL TO
RECEIVE ONLY PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING TX GRADUALLY OPENS UP AND EJECTS
OUT TOWARDS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OUR WAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LOW`S EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP THE ESTABLISHED N-S POP
GRADIENT (WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS) IN OVER THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER OUR
NORTHERN AL AND GA COUNTIES. WITH THE 18 AND 00 UTC GFS TRACKS OF
THE UPPER LOW NOW SLOWING DOWN A BIT...WILL HAVE TO BUMP UP THE POPS
ABOUT 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FCST PACKAGE. FOR TODAY...EXPECT A
TYPE 8 SEA BREEZE DAY WITH THE 1000-700 MB MEAN LAYER VECTOR WIND
OUT OF THE NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT POPS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TYPE 8
CLIMO BASED ON OUR SOUNDING ANALYSIS. MODIFIED THE GFS FCST 18Z
SOUNDING TO A GENEROUS T=95, TD=67 TO GET A PW=1.94",A CAPE=1549
J/KG, AND AN LI=-3.8. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DEWPOINT WERE
ACTUALLY 64 OR 65 IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PUSH THE CAPE DOWN TO
A MEASLY 600 J/KG! THEREFORE...PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR TODAY...WITH PERHAPS 30 PERCENT OVER THE SE FL BIG
BEND...AS THEY ARE CLOSER THE THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.

&&

.LONG TERM...ONCE THE UPPER LOW OR ITS REMNANTS FINALLY EXIT THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF
OVER THE SE U.S. GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE
WHICH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WITH SFC RIDGING ALSO EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA BY MID WEEK. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AM INCLINED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE TEMPS TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER A WED THROUGH FRI PERIOD. FOR MON AND
TUE...WILL PLAN ON STICKING TO MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CLIMO POPS
AND TEMPS AS WE BEGIN THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

[tailgater]

Yes it's going to return to Summertime again. I woke this morning to rain, it's not suppose to rain in the morning this far from coast, that pattren change should put us closer to normal.

[NDG]

This is the pattern change that the NWS out of N.O. was referring to yesterday on their AFD.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have been seeing the same thing from the GFS for a few days now...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml