NHC Staff Video

[cycloneye]

In the CNN report John Zarrella said that he has information that another NOAA team visit is planned for next monday.Umm,maybe Proenza will not be there to meet them.

[artist]

I guess I missed it - what else did they say cycloneye?

[canetracker]

In the CNN report John Zarrella said that he has information that another NOAA team visit is planned for next monday.Umm,maybe Proenza will not be there to meet them.

I do believe their early arrival is due to the latest video from Franklin and the other forecasters. Hopefully, it is the case that they are coming to resolve the issue, and more than likely remove Proenza.

[Ixolib]

Video / News Conference = !!WOW... !!WOW... !!WOW...

[artist]

what?!?!

[cycloneye]

I guess I missed it - what else did they say cycloneye?

Look at the NHC News thread where I posted the latest from Bill.

[Frank2]

Hi again...

I thought alot about this entire issue last evening (after crying on a friends shoulder late yesterday - literally - the first time that's happened to me, outside of a death in the family, and, I suppose, as Mark Twain would say, this would amount to the same thing), and, after giving this much thought and a loss of sleep, it seems that the satellite issue was not the only issue, but, the final straw...

Apparently, from bits and pieces that I had heard from Miami (or didn't hear - that's hard to explain, but, is true), things had not gone well with this new Director since the day his selection was annouced.

In my mind, knowing the fact that we had satellite failures in the past (even when Dr. Frank or Dr. Sheets were still there, during my years with the NHC), we always sided on the side of the Director, no matter their opinion of the situation, so, it seems that the recent QuickSCAT issue, though true in it's meaning, just happened to be the topic at hand that finally shattered the fragile relationship in place between the Director and his staff.

Sadly, it seems that someone will get hurt, no matter the final outcome - whether that be the Director, his staff, their internal relationship, or, the relationship between the NHC and HRD, or the public in general.

Of course, the best solution (as told in a telephone interview yesterday by former Miami NWS Meteorologist Jim Lushine), is for Mr. Proenza to remain, and, for all to make the best of the current situation, but, at this moment this looks very unlikely.

Incidentially - if anyone here thinks yesterday's staff press conference was an easy thing for the NHC staff - as all know, there were two or three individuals before the camera at all times, and, without naming names, I can tell you that one individual's face was as grim as I had seen it only two other times - during my Mom and Dad's funerals in the 1980's...

Frank

[gotoman38]

Frank,

My sincerest sympathies - this is obviously quite hard on many people and I hope that the pain passes very quickly.

For those that can't see the video for some reason, Dr Jeff Masters has posted a transcript of the news conference by the NHC staff yesterday on his blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=712&tstamp=200707

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have also changed my opinion on this. Proenza might not have been
the "good hero" I thought he was...

Again this whole thing is a very sad situation...

[StormTracker]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm...makes me wonder if Max had an ulterior motive for bailing when he did!!!

[Aslkahuna]

What I got out of it is that they are unwilling to wait for the official action to be decided upon or taken which is in itself counter to how things should be handled. Proenza will be forced out and he will retire and when he does, I'm sure that the gloves will come off as he will be totally free to speak his mind since CS Regs will no longer apply so this thing will not end soon nor will the staff escape unscathed. It will take years to repair the damage. Sec Commerce needs to bang a lot of heads now. At the very least Congress may decide on asking questions. Wonder if Joel Myers is dancing in the streets right now?

Steve

[HurryKane]

I don't know Avila, but he seemed genuinely hurt in the video linked on the first page of this thread.

I can't see someone with his background being this undesirable. It just doesn't add up. Not to the degree this is being pushed and with the public display as well.

The wheels of government turn very very slowly so I can understand why the NHC crew chose to try to push the issue to a quicker, public conclusion. And no matter how good someone looks on paper they can be a complete and utter buffoon as a manager/leader/person in real life. Been there, suffered that.

[vacanechaser]

I still think there might be coercion of some type going on whether from someone that wants to be made the director or maybe even has been promised to be, or subtle threats that this needs to go a certain way for those wanting to continue working there. I just don't feel good about this at all. I can't see someone with his background being this undesirable. It just doesn't add up. Not to the degree this is being pushed and with the public display as well. Would any of you feel you could do that unless you are being told it is quite all right? And who would be doing such a thing? Doesn't that seem strange to anyone? JMHO for whatever it is worth.

I totally agree...

Usually government issues are all most always handled within... Why would they want to attract any negative feedback, it won't help when it comes time for the public to heed their warnings.

well, we at s2k cant speak to the issues of whether someone is behind it or not.. thats not known... but i will say this, that group, at least the senior forecasters, we have known and met with on many occasions seem to be straight forward in this issue... i know james, lixion and the others and they have certainly made their case herd.. if you listen to the video again, the question was asked why public?? james stated that it had been handled in private behind closed doors for some time and that they felt they and their view points were not being herd completely or misrepresented in some way... if they say thats the case, then it probably is.. proenza was brought in from the outside, first time thats happened, or at least in many years... they are a tight group there and they do defend one another... i have only met proenza once last year and seemed nice enough to me... but lets remember, we dont work there or with him... so someones appearence on tv may be different behind closed doors.. i deal with that myself at work... ...

i have faith in the forecasters, the senior forecasters that i know and that we all read their forecasts when issued.. i just hope it gets straightened out before the next system threatens...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vbhoutex]

What I got out of it is that they are unwilling to wait for the official action to be decided upon or taken which is in itself counter to how things should be handled. Proenza will be forced out and he will retire and when he does, I'm sure that the gloves will come off as he will be totally free to speak his mind since CS Regs will no longer apply so this thing will not end soon nor will the staff escape unscathed. It will take years to repair the damage. Sec Commerce needs to bang a lot of heads now. At the very least Congress may decide on asking questions. Wonder if Joel Myers is dancing in the streets right now?

Steve

You know he is probably doing flip flops down the center of the freeway!!!!!Drooling at the mouth all the way I am sure!!!!

[gotoman38]

I have also changed my opinion on this. Proenza might not have been
the "good hero" I thought he was...

Again this whole thing is a very sad situation...

I agree, I had the same thoughts initially, that Proenza was fighting for the NHC and that he was being pushed out from the top (NOAA? Someone else???). I now think that he has instead been destroying the NHC, intentionaly or not, through bad management techniques.

The NHC *is* it's talented staff. The middle (or well into the beginning) of the season is not the time to mess with the forecasters lineup. The situation is untenable based on the forecaster's statements, and changes must be made.

Time for Proenza to go. Now.

Mods - is it time to re-merge these threads?