Does anyone agree?

[sunnyday]

You know, I almost didn't pose my question because I thought some posters might be angry. Note how I phrased it. No scientific evidence--just a feeling.
I've experienced Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma firsthand, so I'm not a novice at preparing for or understanding the nature of storms (to some degree).

I don't understand how anyone could misinterpret my simple question as a season cancelled idea. We'd all better pray for a cancelled season!

On a positive note, Berwick, you are such a nice, polite, intelligent person. I appreciate you!

[DanKellFla]

I sure hope so.

[Berwick Bay]

Thank you Sunny for the really kind words. Pretty hard to live up to your comments. Thank you.

For Alan 1961--I checked the BBC Site, and according to their met. the UK was having a cool and wet summer (at least through June). Here's the comment.

After one of the wettest Junes on record and with many areas still struggling to clear the floodwaters, is it too much to hope that July will finally see the arrival of the British summer?
Unfortunately, the weather charts don't paint a pretty picture. The jet stream is a zone of high level winds that rush across the Atlantic, steering the surface weather systems.
At this time of year, the jet stream would normally be blowing to the north of the British Isles, pushing the low pressure areas with their rain towards Iceland or Northern Scandinavia.
Throughout June the jet stream has been much further south, putting the UK in the firing line for the Atlantic depressions. That pattern looks set to continue at least during the first half of July, with just a hint of something more settled later in the month, maybe just in time for the start of the main school holiday season.

[jinftl]

Climatoligically, if the hurricane season was a ball game, we are maybe 1 out into the first inning....pitcher still warming up! This could be the most exciting baseball game ever...or a dud....or more likely in between!

[Tommedic]

Not being a professional, I can only rely on watching the tropics and tracking hurricanes since I was 9 years old, by the way I am 55 years old now. This seems to be like the norm of so many years in the past. If we get to the 2nd week of August and it remains like this, then I'll begin to think the season might be slow. Now as to whether it will be normal or active, time will tell. But the longer it is the more I am concerned that something has not come thru and relieved some of the energy in the tropics. May we all look back and be happy that no area of the US, PR, and Islands has been impacted.

[jinftl]

[quote="sunnyday"]You know, I almost didn't pose my question because I thought some posters might be angry. Note how I phrased it. No scientific evidence--just a feeling.
I've experienced Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma firsthand, so I'm not a novice at preparing for or understanding the nature of storms (to some degree).


Sometimes our gut feelings pan out...something to be said for intuition.

I think maybe the frustration with some of the members is that they really go all-out to provide amazing details of data...using models, patterns, climatology, etc., to back-up their claims. Maybe some viewed your statement, and especially the part that followed about not having any data or analysis to support it, as not in-line with the intent of the board.

Like I said, your gut might be right-on, but maybe not having any way to back it up frustrated some.

[olddude]

Climatoligically, if the hurricane season was a ball game, we are maybe 1 out into the first inning....pitcher still warming up! This could be the most exciting baseball game ever...or a dud....or more likely in between 1

Great analogy !

[skysummit]

It won't be like last year. There are just too many things going for 2007's season. Let's just look at Andrea, Barry, and 96L as walk throughs for the real deal. Hopefully everyone has their supplies.....and bookmarks ready to go.

[alan1961]

Thank you Sunny for the really kind words. Pretty hard to live up to your comments. Thank you.

For Alan 1961--I checked the BBC Site, and according to their met. the UK was having a cool and wet summer (at least through June). Here's the comment.

After one of the wettest Junes on record and with many areas still struggling to clear the floodwaters, is it too much to hope that July will finally see the arrival of the British summer?
Unfortunately, the weather charts don't paint a pretty picture. The jet stream is a zone of high level winds that rush across the Atlantic, steering the surface weather systems.
At this time of year, the jet stream would normally be blowing to the north of the British Isles, pushing the low pressure areas with their rain towards Iceland or Northern Scandinavia.
Throughout June the jet stream has been much further south, putting the UK in the firing line for the Atlantic depressions. That pattern looks set to continue at least during the first half of July, with just a hint of something more settled later in the month, maybe just in time for the start of the main school holiday season.

Well i read that a few days ago Berwick, cheers just the same though

[canegrl04]

I wouldn't fret over an inactive season just yet.If its still on the quiet side in August,then there will be proof the season is going to be the opposite of all the predictions

[Ptarmigan]

I think this will be an active season still. Look at 2004, it started late and turned out to be very active. 2003 had an early start too and ended late as well. I do notice that the WPAC and EPAC have been quiet. Normally, they are active. No, I don't see a repeated of 1977, when all the basins were quiet.

[Robjohn53]

I think of this, Being in Florida like alot of you all, i remember not long ago that fire rates were sky high, no rain in a long time and the drought was set in hard. Then all of a sudden we had lots of rain. Things change way to fast to even suggest it might be quiet. Although i too, would like to not see hurricanes hit anywhere. But it can happen and as long as there is a chance i am not taking my eyes off anything this year. As long as the Pro-Mets and the Experts are concerned, i am too. I hope For the best but yet am weary to the worst. Like They
say it only takes one to make a bad season. Just beware and hope for the best.

Robjohn53

[Dionne]

I would like to see a nice quiet decade without any major landfalls in the northern GOM. It appears to be quiet at this time. Although as we all know.....anything can happen.

Katrinas landfall; FEMA money spent $2,430,996,315......234,000 homes damaged or destroyed.....45,568,334 cubic yards of debris removed.....25,966 FEMA trailers.....and the most disturbing....on the Mississippi gulf coast only 2977 building permits issued.

The last thing we need is another hit.

[Patrick99]

No - I don't think this season will stay quiet. June and July are really just the pre-season months...occasionally you get something impressive like Dennis in 2005, but for the most part this is par for the course.