IS east coastal florida and fl keys protected from surge

[cpdaman]

wow that picture of miami (collins ave) is frightening. scary how the 3 or the 4 worse storms of the 20'th century occured in 26, 28, 35. so many places OVERDUE

i hope kartina will be a lesson to many, but these days people can get so complacent you never know, if a cat 4 or 5 is headed directly for miami or fort lauderdale the economic impact of such a strike would be almost inconceivable

and ARIC as far as the gulf stream goes, elevated wave heights in the gulf stream DEPEND highly on the direction the wind is blowing, namely parrallel to gulf stream so in a hurricane (unless it stalls just east) there would not be a long duration of winds parrallel or close to IMO that threat as in an area where these winds might be parrallel over it for a longer time. like the carolina's in a NE'ster or even N/fl.

remember the tax day storm of this year, after the front passed thru florida we had NW winds blowing at 40 plus miles an hour at both the canaveral bouys for 18 hours as well as the lake worth bouy, this produced such a dangerous gulf stream that (14-16 ft) that if you looked from shore ((south of martin county especially) where gulf stream is closer to land) you would see the tell tale sign. if you look out at the horizon from the beach you would see LUMPS on the horizon, big huge lumps that you would have to squint because they looked exactly like those huge barges that frequency the gulf stream. these were giant swell and waves in the gulf stream. you can seem them any day in s. florida when a nw/NNW wind is blowing over 15 mph for 12 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

wow that picture of miami (collins ave) is frightening. scary how the 3 or the 4 worse storms of the 20'th century occured in 26, 28, 35. so many places OVERDUE

i hope kartina will be a lesson to many, but these days people can get so complacent you never know, if a cat 4 or 5 is headed directly for miami or fort lauderdale the economic impact of such a strike would be almost inconceivable

and ARIC as far as the gulf stream goes, elevated wave heights in the gulf stream DEPEND highly on the direction the wind is blowing, namely parrallel to gulf stream so in a hurricane (unless it stalls just east) there would not be a long duration of winds parrallel or close to IMO that threat as in an area where these winds might be parrallel over it for a longer time. like the carolina's in a NE'ster or even N/fl.

remember the tax day storm of this year, after the front passed thru florida we had NW winds blowing at 40 plus miles an hour at both the canaveral bouys for 18 hours as well as the lake worth bouy, this produced such a dangerous gulf stream that (14-16 ft) that if you looked from shore ((south of martin county especially) where gulf stream is closer to land) you would see the tell tale sign. if you look out at the horizon from the beach you would see LUMPS on the horizon, big huge lumps that you would have to squint because they looked exactly like those huge barges that frequency the gulf stream. these were giant swell and waves in the gulf stream. you can seem them any day in s. florida when a nw/NNW wind is blowing over 15 mph for 12 hours.

thats very true... rogue waves occur more in the gulf stream because of that fact.. i just did nto feel like typing all that.. its in the link i posted..

[jinftl]

so could a rogue wave happen on a sunny day, say in january, with no tropical activity at all? the photo of miami beach from 1926...was it storm surge or a rogue wave or both?

[Aric Dunn]

so could a rogue wave happen on a sunny day, say in january, with no tropical activity at all? the photo of miami beach from 1926...was it storm surge or a rogue wave or both?

yeah they can happen in janaury .. its just a Tc thing .. its the dynamics of pressure, waves, bottom contour,.. but there are studies saying that they may occur more often than not during a hurricane.. .. and the gulf stream can add to that potential because is moving in most cases perpendicular to the hurricane

[jinftl]

scary for sure..especially as i realize that i am about 2 miles west of the atlantic and only a few feet above sea level...to make matters worse, i am feet away from a river (Middle River) that connects directly to the intracostal....i could imagine the water funneling into the river...as the ocean narrows west through the natural tributaries all over fort lauderdale

[Aric Dunn]

yep.. water is a funny thing sometimes

[jinftl]

Interesting map...shows how on a localized level...because of tributaries that feed into waterways that feed the ocean...flooding could extend miles inland in broward county...makes me wonder if evacuation maps that the county has established take this into account...not just proximity to ocean (i.e, evacuate barrier islands only).

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2000/09/0922broward.html

[jdray]

The Southeast coast of Florida is not as susceptible to storm surge as is the NE Coast of Florida (from Daytona north).

This area is very similar to the gulf coast in topology.
The newest SLOSH models show that a Cat 5 coming into Jacksonville could push 16+ feet of water in downtown Jacksonville.

Taken from a previous post of mine:
============================
Alltel Stadium (now Jax Municipal Stadium, home of the NFL Jaguars) would be under 16 feet of water from a Cat 5, 10 feet from a Cat 3.

http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire+and ... +Check.htm
Shows location of 40 poles that mark how high each Category would produce in storm surge at different locations.

The Topography of Jacksonville is such that it is very similar to the Gulf Coast, shallow shelf waters leading to marsh.
This is compounded by the St Johns River and its numerous tributaries.

I am over 40 miles from the beach, yet the branch of the Black Creek near my house would flood in a cat 3.

I dread the day this area takes a direct hit again.
============================

[cpdaman]

this is west palm beach in 1991 on a sunny beautiful day, with a powerful hybrid "perfect" storm about 1,000 miles away.

surf was 20 feet in places

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47hmqfXuA3A&eurl=

what is not shown on this video is the incident (shown on storm stories) where an amateur photographer captures a rogue wave (in this same general location and date) crashing and covering the parking lot with 4 feet of standing water and carrying an older women who was watching from the sea wall a quarter mile as well as engulfing the photographers car with his infant inside (all 3 survived healthy)

[Patrick99]

That picture from 1926 pretty much proves what can happen to Miami Beach.

There will come a time when South Beach will be uninhabitable for months. It was absolutely ridiculous to build all that on a little barrier island in the first place.