ICTZ Seems to have lifted North a bit...

[Weatherfreak000]

Note the scattered convection that seems to be forming at 15N all along the African Mainland.
Also note the immensely large Tropical Wave that has just begun to surface. Although certainly not uncommon at this time of year it still breaches past 12N which is about where 93L fell apart.



Nothing that implies development here, just seems as if the ICTZ is getting a little higher.

[Weatherfreak000]

Also, I note the TW in question had quite the interesting look to it, and in the last frame exploded it appears to be quite huge.



Going to look at further Satellite images with slight interest.

[hial2]

Normal north progression of the ITCZ...

[HURAKAN]

We're getting closer to that time of the year!!!

[Aquawind]

It's very near normal with a good jump north in the last period.

During the period from June 1 - 10, 2007, the African portion of the ITCZ was located near 15.3 degrees north latitude when averaged over the ten day period and from 15W-35E. This compares with a normal position of 14.8N and a position last dekad of 13.8N. In the west, from 10W-10E, the ITCZ was located near 16.6 degrees north, compared to the long term mean of around 15.9 degrees north, and a position last year of 15.6N. In the east, from 20E-35E, the ITCZ was located near 13.9N, compared with 13.5N for the mean, and 13.4N for last year. Contributing to the rapid northward movement of the discontinuity, a strong frontal system pushed through the Sahel during the week, bringing enhanced southerly winds and increased northward movement of moisture.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

[Aquawind]

UPDATE:
Well it has continued to progress north as expected..considerably further north than last year ATT. Plenty of storm activity over Africa..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

During the period from July 1 - 10, 2007, the African portion of the ITCZ was located near 17.5 degrees north latitude when averaged over the ten day period and from 15W-35E. This compares with a normal position of 16.7N and a position last year of 16.4N. In the west, from 10W-10E, the ITCZ was located near 18.4 degrees north, compared to the long term mean of around 17.8 degrees north, and a position last year of 17.9N. In the east, from 20E-35E, the ITCZ was located near 16.6N, compared with 15.3N for the mean, and 14.7N for last year. The ITCZ has advanced significantly over southern Mauritania and northern Sudan since the third dekad of June which had a 10-day average of 16.3 degrees north.

[Nimbus]

The current atlantic waves are still pretty far south, we haven't seen much energy make it into the Caribbean yet this year. Dry air and SAL have been more prevalent, no favorable MJO etc.

I expected a hurricane or at least a tropical storm in July but according to the latest storm2k poll, that is now a minority view.

The light shear and the steering pattern in the atlantic bothers me, looks like a 2004 pattern that could turn ugly in the gulf come august.

[skysummit]

Well, the GFS shows shear relaxing across much of the basin by the end of the weekend into Monday and staying rather low throughout next week and beyond. The current steering pattern is also beginning to get me a bit concerned for the Gulf Coast. At first it wasn't bothering me much, however, it doesn't look to be budging.

[canetracker]

Well, the GFS shows shear relaxing across much of the basin by the end of the weekend into Monday and staying rather low throughout next week and beyond. The current steering pattern is also beginning to get me a bit concerned for the Gulf Coast. At first it wasn't bothering me much, however, it doesn't look to be budging.

Agreed. The "normal" shift in the ITCZ", the upcoming predicited shear relaxation, the steering patterns, not to mention: the warm SST's, the loop current, neutral to possible LaNina and the positive MJO all are making me a bit concerned. Looks like a 2004 start off with 2005 conditions type setup.