VERY INTRESTING. Model still developing a Low Pressure in G

[miamicanes177]

Barely . . . but storms don't fulfill their TCHP because it's defined as a "maximum possible intensity" - i.e. no land interaction, no shear, no dry air - a perfect environment. That doesn't happen in the gulf, and that doesn't happen in July.
If this was 2005, I would still only see it maxing out in the mid-930s, and that would only be if it went through the straights. On this track, nothing close to 950mb is even possible, much less 902mb.

Hurricanes do not understand time. They do not have a brain that tells them, "you can not develop under these perfect conditions because it is July and not August". Hurricanes only react to the environment. If conditions are the exact same on July 15 as they are on August 15, then the hurricane will perform exactly the same. Why? Because they do not understand time. The fact of the matter is that the TCHP on the course of the 12Z cmc run is higher than the TCHP katrina passed over in late August 2005 to become a category 5 hurricane. The question asked is how strong a hurricane would the GOM support under perfect conditions. The answer is a cat 5. Why? I'll answer it one more time. Hurricanes do not understand time. TCHP and SST's are the values they are no matter what month it is. Rita became a cat 5 under waters not even close to what we have in July 2007. So I can promise it is not water temperature that would keep a hurricane from becoming a major cat 5.

[wxmann_91]

Barely . . . but storms don't fulfill their TCHP because it's defined as a "maximum possible intensity" - i.e. no land interaction, no shear, no dry air - a perfect environment. That doesn't happen in the gulf, and that doesn't happen in July.
If this was 2005, I would still only see it maxing out in the mid-930s, and that would only be if it went through the straights. On this track, nothing close to 950mb is even possible, much less 902mb.

Hurricanes do not understand time. They do not have a brain that tells them, "you can not develop under these perfect conditions because it is July and not August". Hurricanes only react to the environment. If conditions are the exact same on July 15 as they are on August 15, then the hurricane will perform exactly the same. Why? Because they do not understand time. The fact of the matter is that the TCHP on the course of the 12Z cmc run is higher than the TCHP katrina passed over in late August 2005 to become a category 5 hurricane. The question asked is how strong a hurricane would the GOM support under perfect conditions. The answer is a cat 5. Why? I'll answer it one more time. Hurricanes do not understand time. TCHP and SST's are the values they are no matter what month it is. Rita became a cat 5 under waters not even close to what we have in July 2007. So I can promise it is not water temperature that would keep a hurricane from becoming a major cat 5.

But the fact of the matter is that the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity (hereafter referred to as MPHI) is way way way way way (how many times to I have to type way to emphasize it?) lower than before Katrina. Waters during Katrina could support a hurricane with a ctrl pressure below 850 mb. It can barely support a Cat 5 in the southern GOM right now, a barely a hurricane in the northern GOM right now. Trust me, the MPHI has only been exceeded a couple of times, and only with baroclinic assistance. I couldn't care less what time it is right now - the environment cannot, will not, support a Cat 5 in the GOM right now. So if you're thinking along the lines of a Cat 4/5 a week from now, don't get your hopes up.

BTW, the CMC absolutely BOMBED Katrina to ~970 mb, and all the models I think developed it to some extent. I would hardly call the output we've been seeing the past few days, bombing (have only seen it going around 1000 mb). And no other Global is on crack like the CMC is. I repeat, trade winds are simply too strong, and background pressures too high, attm, to support any significant development.

To paraphrase what Derecho said from another forum, if the CMC were to all of a sudden dissapear right now, there would be absolutely no adverse effects on forecasts. It is only somewhat better than the infamous FSUMM5 (or whatever that weirdo model was called that develop 3 majors across the Atlantic when none materialized).

[miamicanes177]

But the fact of the matter is that the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity (hereafter referred to as MPHI) is way way way way way (how many times to I have to type way to emphasize it?) lower than before Katrina. Waters during Katrina could support a hurricane with a ctrl pressure below 850 mb. It can barely support a Cat 5 in the southern GOM right now, a barely a hurricane in the northern GOM right now. Trust me, the MPHI has only been exceeded a couple of times, and only with baroclinic assistance. I couldn't care less what time it is right now - the environment cannot, will not, support a Cat 5 in the GOM right now. So if you're thinking along the lines of a Cat 4/5 a week from now, don't get your hopes up.

BTW, the CMC absolutely BOMBED Katrina to ~970 mb, and all the models I think developed it to some extent. I would hardly call the output we've been seeing the past few days, bombing (have only seen it going around 1000 mb). And no other Global is on crack like the CMC is. I repeat, trade winds are simply too strong, and background pressures too high, attm, to support any significant development.

I'm not expecting anything to develop because my end-all-be-all GFS is not showing development. In regards to hurricane potential, remember we are only talking about tchp and sst's. That is all. That MPHI uses an equation that takes into account more than just tchp and sst's. In fact, I'm not even sure it takes tchp into account. We're only talking about those 2 thresholds and nothing more.

[wxmann_91]

But the fact of the matter is that the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity (hereafter referred to as MPHI) is way way way way way (how many times to I have to type way to emphasize it?) lower than before Katrina. Waters during Katrina could support a hurricane with a ctrl pressure below 850 mb. It can barely support a Cat 5 in the southern GOM right now, a barely a hurricane in the northern GOM right now. Trust me, the MPHI has only been exceeded a couple of times, and only with baroclinic assistance. I couldn't care less what time it is right now - the environment cannot, will not, support a Cat 5 in the GOM right now. So if you're thinking along the lines of a Cat 4/5 a week from now, don't get your hopes up.

BTW, the CMC absolutely BOMBED Katrina to ~970 mb, and all the models I think developed it to some extent. I would hardly call the output we've been seeing the past few days, bombing (have only seen it going around 1000 mb). And no other Global is on crack like the CMC is. I repeat, trade winds are simply too strong, and background pressures too high, attm, to support any significant development.

I'm not expecting anything to develop because my end-all-be-all GFS is not showing development. In regards to hurricane potential, remember we are only talking about tchp and sst's. That is all. That MPHI uses an equation that takes into account more than just tchp and sst's. In fact, I'm not even sure it takes tchp into account. We're only talking about those 2 thresholds and nothing more.

All right then... apologies for the misunderstanding

Although, I wouldn't say development would occur if the GFS showed development (if that's what you mean by "my end-all-be-all").

I'd look at the synoptic environment progged and gauge the likelihood of development from there.

But that's getting OT from this thread.

[DanKellFla]

It is still kicking around, but now heading towards Texas and getting weaker. Model wise, it seems to be fading.

[TampaSteve]

Hurricane near Miami this week? Yeah, right...

[Blown Away]

I think it's gone.
http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html#GLB00

[Nimbus]

I think the tail end of that front dropping down through Texas into the gulf would be more interesting than the CMC model.

The surface pressures are still running 29.90 and I haven't looked to see what the upper air pattern will look like in 48 hours. Don't know if this deserves a new topic.