East coast trough not going away
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East coast trough not going away
000
FXUS62 KMFL 160807
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007
BEYOND TUESDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED OVER NORTH
AMERICA. MOST MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AXIS
ALIGNED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN WITH LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS
ON THE EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND WEST.
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE U.S. EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BREAK THE
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD THIS PATTERN PAN OUT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
If this pattern holds up everything that forms in the Atlantic will curve before hitting the east coast or GOM. If this pattern holds thru the meat of the season we have it made.
FXUS62 KMFL 160807
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007
BEYOND TUESDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED OVER NORTH
AMERICA. MOST MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AXIS
ALIGNED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN WITH LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS
ON THE EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND WEST.
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE U.S. EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BREAK THE
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD THIS PATTERN PAN OUT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
If this pattern holds up everything that forms in the Atlantic will curve before hitting the east coast or GOM. If this pattern holds thru the meat of the season we have it made.
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- gatorcane
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Boca, thanks for the info.
I wouldn't count on it holding the rest of the season. The long wave pattern rarely holds for that long. I'd rather have a strong Bermuda High now while nothing is out there.
I wouldn't count on it holding the rest of the season. The long wave pattern rarely holds for that long. I'd rather have a strong Bermuda High now while nothing is out there.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Well, the long-range GFS now has been pretty consistent after this trough to bring the jet stream up into Canada and building the bermuda high well into the eastern third of the country - the axis up into the Carolinas. This would be the last week of July - this set up is what Jeff Masters was talkin about. What I find interesting with this latest version of east coast trough is that it isn't forecasted to push offshore but stall along the coast and eventually lead to a "cut-off" low when the upper support retreats into canada. This tells me that the Atlantic Ridge is starting to pump up which may lead to that pattern change in late July.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
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- x-y-no
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Stormcenter wrote:Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
I don't know. But maybe you should try just taking statements at face value. Just because someone says they think something is likely doesn't neccesarily mean they want it to happen.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
x-y-no wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
I don't know. But maybe you should try just taking statements at face value. Just because someone says they think something is likely doesn't neccesarily mean they want it to happen.
Or maybe it's because a majority favors one over the other no matter what.
It's like last season even when signs pointed to an "average" season we still had
a ton of posters saying that things were going ramp up and get "really" active in July, then Aug. then Sept. until finally in Oct. they threw in the towel. Anyway I would hope no one would take my comments personally. It' just my opinion.
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- Blown Away
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Is the 2007 Bermuda High setup pattern similiar to 2004.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Maybe it's because we have what is being billed as an "exceptional" drought in much of the Southeast, and the only way to put a realistic dent into it is to get a few tropical systems our way. Just because homes aren't being destroyed doesn't mean that millions or even billions of dollars in drought-related damage isn't occurring.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
maybe some people just like playing the "moral" card and do we all have to let a bias against wanting storms effect our judgement in forecasting
also this trough currenty over the east coast would not cause stroms to recurve like last year
also this trough currenty over the east coast would not cause stroms to recurve like last year
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- hurricanetrack
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Re: East coast trough not going away
I for one like hurricanes. As long as they don't get too strong and devastate an entire region, then what's the big deal? It's like a few inches of snow vs a huge blizzard that cripples an area and kills people. No one wants to see that, not even me. But I do want a chance to study hurricanes and the only way for me to do that is to have them hit land. Again, as long as they stay within reason, people can prepare, and it is a tolerable situation.
So my vote is for no East Coast trough but also NO killer hurricanes. The harsh reality is that sometimes you cannot always get what you want- and the phrase, "be careful what you wish for", is all too real.
I might start a thread on this topic: Why people like or dislike hurricanes. Could be an interesting discussion.
So my vote is for no East Coast trough but also NO killer hurricanes. The harsh reality is that sometimes you cannot always get what you want- and the phrase, "be careful what you wish for", is all too real.
I might start a thread on this topic: Why people like or dislike hurricanes. Could be an interesting discussion.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Stormcenter wrote:Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
Maybe some people do but I think what most people try and do here is forecast trends and kind of be ahead of the curve. Most of us back our thoughts up with model or observational data. I will say that having an east coast trough doesn't mean someone in the coastal US won't be impacted by a major storm (i.e. Charlie). Hurricanes will be a part of life for anyone leaving on or near the coast - so one should prepare for it. For anyone living in FL, look at the decade of the 1940s to see just how bad it can get. The bermuda high will strengthen periodically through out the season - it's just for how long and where is a storm in relation to the weather pattern at the time - it's all timing. Something that you can't predict this far out.
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- storms in NC
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Stormcenter wrote:Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
I just don't get it when a storm is in the gulf that it alway is going to TX. But then you have the La -Miss- Al- Fla -Ga-SC and NC they all do the same thing. To some It is called fear. It is better to be ready than not. May I ask Why do you come to this board if you were not wanting to see a hurricane hit some where. I can tell you why I do. After Floyd I made a point to know when and where there is a storm. Why after I had to rebuild my house back from the flood I said I would help any one that I can. And I have done so. I have been to Fl and La to help. I load up my truck and I am on my way. I don't wait for a month or so I go then. People need water food now. We didn't have any help here for over a week here. I had No shoes on my feet when we left our home in a boat. A kind lady seen I had none and gave me a pain to wear. I will never forget what other did for us. That is why I come to this board so I can learn and help others. Do I think we will be hit again yes. When God only know that answer. I am sorry I don't mean to come off strong. But it upset me when other make a comment like that. I am off my soap box now.
Now about the trough.
I wrote in another thread about if there was a TS or Hurricane where would it go? It can't go any where really. It looks like we will have it for another 2 weeks from what I see. I hope it moves on out myself.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
The whole "It's so horrible how people seem to want hurricanes" reply is getting old...it seems like every topic ends up being an argument about this.
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Re: East coast trough not going away
hurricanetrack wrote:I for one like hurricanes. As long as they don't get too strong and devastate an entire region, then what's the big deal? It's like a few inches of snow vs a huge blizzard that cripples an area and kills people. No one wants to see that, not even me. But I do want a chance to study hurricanes and the only way for me to do that is to have them hit land. Again, as long as they stay within reason, people can prepare, and it is a tolerable situation.
So my vote is for no East Coast trough but also NO killer hurricanes. The harsh reality is that sometimes you cannot always get what you want- and the phrase, "be careful what you wish for", is all too real.
I might start a thread on this topic: Why people like or dislike hurricanes. Could be an interesting discussion.
Will let me start with mine.
I like the excitement and media coverage leading up to landfall but HATE the death and destruction they cause.
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- Blown Away
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Re: East coast trough not going away
Stormcenter wrote:Why do I always get the feeling "some" of you on this board actually
want to see the East coast trough weaken and have hurricanes threaten the U.S? Didn't any of you see enough death and destruction after 2004 and 2005 seasons?
I just don't get it.
I disagree w/ you, I'll say that most that post here on a regular basis don't want to see more destruction. We all have a fascination w/ weather that's why we are here posting on a July Monday w/ absolutely nothing going on in the Atlantic. You would not be here this morning if you were not obsessed/fascinated w/ weather. Most on this board would likely want to witness the fury of a hurricane if they could do so w/o the death/destruction, but most realize you can't have one w/o the other. EC trough & Bermuda High are significant features and are worth discussing.
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- storms in NC
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