Question about the 2005 season

[HurricaneBill]

OK, we all know that the deep tropics remained very unfavorable for TC development during the 2005 season.

My question is this:

Had the deep tropics been more favorable for development, would that have meant less development or storms in the Gulf of Mexico?

[Swimdude]

Not necessarily. For 2 reasons. First, having better conditions further out in the Atlantic doesn't necessarily change the conditions closer to home. Secondly, we would have to take into consideration steering patterns from the deep tropics. Would those storms make it to the Gulf of Mexico, or to the East Coast, or neither?

Does that make much sense?

[wxmann_91]

IMO, almost certainly yes. For example, if TD 10 developed, I don't think we would've seen Katrina. One example out of many. If CV storms had developed, the waves wouldn't have made it west to become homegrown.

A more controversial standpoint: there is a limit on potential energy the atmosphere harbors. If several large, long-lasting, powerful CV storms used up all the energy, I'd highly doubt there would be enough to spawn homegrown Katrina/Rita/Wilma type storms. You can debate amongst yourselves on that.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, almost certainly yes. For example, if TD 10 developed, I don't think we would've seen Katrina. One example out of many. If CV storms had developed, the waves wouldn't have made it west to become homegrown.

A more controversial standpoint: there is a limit on potential energy the atmosphere harbors. If several large, long-lasting, powerful CV storms used up all the energy, I'd highly doubt there would be enough to spawn homegrown Katrina/Rita/Wilma type storms. You can debate amongst yourselves on that.

Don't tell that to the east coast, as that new storm (which would have been named Katrina anyway I believe) could have hit them hard...

[Andrew92]

IMO, almost certainly yes. For example, if TD 10 developed, I don't think we would've seen Katrina. One example out of many. If CV storms had developed, the waves wouldn't have made it west to become homegrown.

A more controversial standpoint: there is a limit on potential energy the atmosphere harbors. If several large, long-lasting, powerful CV storms used up all the energy, I'd highly doubt there would be enough to spawn homegrown Katrina/Rita/Wilma type storms. You can debate amongst yourselves on that.

Don't tell that to the east coast, as that new storm (which would have been named Katrina anyway I believe) could have hit them hard...

It would have been Jose.

-Andrew92

[Ptarmigan]

It would have been Jose.

-Andrew92

Jose is a common name among Hispanics. It would be interesting what would happen to that name. Katrina is now less popular.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I may be incorrect in this statement- if so
someone Please correct me:

One unusual factor was that the 2005 season
featured a monsoonal trough over
the Caribbean, which is a feature normally
seen in the Western Pacific. This monsoonal
trough allowed for some of the severe storms:
wilma, katrina, rita to achieve strengths and
characteristics that are more typical
of Western Pacific Typhoons than of
Atlantic Hurricanes.

[Ptarmigan]

I may be incorrect in this statement- if so
someone Please correct me:

One unusual factor was that the 2005 season
featured a monsoonal trough over
the Caribbean, which is a feature normally
seen in the Western Pacific. This monsoonal
trough allowed for some of the severe storms:
wilma, katrina, rita to achieve strengths and
characteristics that are more typical
of Western Pacific Typhoons than of
Atlantic Hurricanes.

Monsoons play a bigger role in tropical cyclone formation and climatology than most would think. It would explain why some seasons are more active or quiet than others. Wilma formed from a monsoonal trough.