So Far So Good

[Cookiely]

Hurricane Season Update

By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune

Published: Jul 23, 2007

When the tropics are calm, the daily update issued by the National Hurricane Center says: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Sweet words for Florida residents who are understandably twitchy about hurricanes.

So 53 days into the six-month season that experts predict will be active, there are positive signs to note about the tropics, but beware. We're entering the peak of the season - August through mid-October - and history shows that a slow start doesn't necessarily mean a calm season.
No Hurricanes

The 2007 season has produced one tropical storm and a subtropical storm, and neither amounted to much. Don't read too much into this, though. We've been in an active cycle since 1995. During five of those seasons, hurricanes had formed by this time. In the other seven, the first hurricane didn't form until August or September.
Shear

Winds blowing different directions from the Earth's surface to 35,000 feet can disrupt developing storms. The shear over parts of the Atlantic has been in the critical 20 mph and higher range that hampers development. However, shear can vary almost daily or weekly, and it tends to diminish during the peak of the season.
Saharan Dust

Dry, dusty air blowing from Africa over the tropical Atlantic is more dense than it has been since 1999. (This image is from 2000.) Scientists say the dry air can inhibit storms from developing or growing stronger. But scientists can't forecast how much dust will be around in the peak of hurricane season. And researchers remain unsure how much the dust really snuffs out hurricanes.
No La Nina

Forecasters expected La Nina to have formed by now, making it easier for hurricanes to form. That may not happen, removing one more reason to expect an active season. Experts are quick to point out, though, that La Nina - unusually cool water in the Pacific - did not exist in 2004 and 2005.
Water Temperature

Warm ocean water is fuel for hurricanes, and through June temperatures in the Atlantic off of Africa hovered about a degree below the normal of 81 degrees. The thick Saharan dust may have blocked sunlight and kept the water slightly cooler.

In the past week or so, though, temperatures across the Atlantic have crept close to normal. And except for the eastern Gulf and the Caribbean, ocean temperatures don't really start to cook until next month. If the dust thins, temperatures could rise quickly.

Current Eastern Gulf temperature: 86

Average Eastern Gulf temperature in August: 86

Average Eastern Gulf temperature in September: 84

Average Eastern Gulf temperature in October: 77

[Frank2]

Thanks for that article - when I left the house at 7:15 this morning, it seemed there was a very slight hint of Fall in the air - the air was calm, a layer of altocumulus could be seen over most of the sky, the air temperature was in the mid-70s (good for here), and, the earth had that wet earthy smell of yesterday's rainfall - all are very common early morning conditions for late summer here in South Florida, so, perhaps it's a sign of an early Fall...

Here in South Florida, very subtle signs of an early fall often appear as early as August...

[gatorcane]

Frank, I'd have to agree with you. We still have not seen any persistent easterly wind pattern this entire summer. It's very unusual. Winds have been generally light and variable. But this is the pattern that I remember in the summer of 2005 when Wilma sneaked up on us from the SW (with a trough that pulled her into us).....and that was at the end of October.

In addition, the long wave pattern will probably change before the end of the season, which may mean the Bermuda High will be in place for the heart of the season. I'd rather see it now when nothing is out there.

and remember South Florida sees most of its BIG hits from the south so we are by no means out of the woods yet......

[Frank2]

Totally for sure - it is way too early to know how the season will turn out, but, as mentioned on Friday, it's hard to believe that September is just 5 weeks away, so, time is passing (as it does)...

Still, as you said, we've had few days with easterlies - the current trough is very deep for this time of year (if this were January, we'd have highs only in the 50s), so, per all of the discussions on a change in the pattern, we'll have to wait and see - if the current pattern of troughs in the east continues (any brief changes aside), it would mean a much different outcome for the season...

[Sanibel]

If the Nina kicks on later in the season it could unleash an unholy roller of a big storm that taps all those sun drenched waters that have gone untapped all season.

[Frank2]

True, but, hopefully by then the northern branch of the jetstream will have begun it's southward migration...

[gatorcane]

Yes, but again its those storms that develop in the NW Caribbean that concern me the most for South Florida - so we have to wait through the end of October to feel comfortable...

and that is 3 months way

Nonetheless I still think the long wave pattern will change sometime before then and allow something to move in from the East....but the question is will there be anything out there when that happens?