Hope This Baby Stays Under Hawaii...

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

SST's are 80* where it is and drop to like 76* as it approaches Hawaii. It is forecast to go down to TS at the Hawaiian longitude. Should miss south if the forecast holds.

[Derek Ortt]

the 80 degree rule is NOT absolute

The lowest MPI along the track is between 120-125KT. It COULD maintain itself the entire way

[Sanibel]

Flossie on target for 100 mile miss to south of Big Island.

TWC reports winds back up to 140mph now! Good form, sharp eye. Any veer NW and the Big Island gets it.

Last big hurricane to track towards Hawaii from the SE was Dot in 1959. Hit Kauai.

[Chacor]

Flossie on target for 100 mile miss to south of Big Island.

TWC reports winds back up to 140mph now! Good form, sharp eye. Any veer NW and the Big Island gets it.

Last big hurricane to track towards Hawaii from the SE was Dawn in 1959. Hit Kauai.

Do you mean Dot?

And based on Google Earth distance estimation... 72 hour forecast (75 kt/85 mph) is no more than 70 miles SSW of South Point.

[fci]

Wouldn't Iniki (92) qualify as coming from the Southeast even though it ultimately made a sharp right to hit Kauai?

It did actually come from Southeast of the islands.

[Sanibel]

"Dot" - correct. My hearing must be going.


I thought that Iniki had to be SE also. I think Dr Lyons is speaking about a big category 4 maybe?


In 1997 I drove a rental car to South Point. It is under hot tropical sun as the furthest point south in Hawaii. It is at the base of the slope of Muana Loa with tropical trees and a small habitation of several modest houses. Kind of rough as far as atmosphere and terrain.

[Brent]

Came in from the south after moving west.

[fci]

We could quibble over whether Iniki technically came from the Southeast. Strike was from the South but the storm eminated from the Southeast.

One would think that it developed South of the Islands if it were just said that Iniki came from the South.

I guess technically I would have to defer to you.

[Sanibel]

WOW!

In all my years on tropical boards I've never seen a muscular category 3 hurricane bearing down on Hawaii! Check out Flossie on the NOAA satellites. It has the hint of going north of track, but could be illusion. So far, on course for south pass of islands and near-miss. It is also staying stronger than forecast yesterday. If I were on the Big Island I would definitely NOT be relaxed! Go Derek!

[Coredesat]

It's a Category 4 now, actually. It's actually been over cooler waters (25C), which is surprising, although as Derek has said repeatedly, the 26C rule isn't absolute - other factors are involved.

[Normandy]

Ahh Flossie is a Cat4 approaching the US....so THATS the reason 400+ users are online

[Sanibel]

Don't forget Kauai downrange for an unexpected veer.

Flight level: 121kts

[RL3AO]

Ahh Flossie is a Cat4 approaching the US....so THATS the reason 400+ users are online

No doubt. Unless they are here to discuss the system in the WPac.