Central Atlantic Interest

[Aric Dunn]

There is a very Interesting what appears to be an area of Low pressure farther west of 90L that has formed orver the past day or 2. It may need to be watched or I may be jumping the gun but it looks fairly healthy and far enough away from 90L not to get absorbed like the naked swirl farther east between the two.
thought comments ?




http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
use image above so you click over the right place for the loop 12 images

also here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[Sanibel]

I saw it, but, myself, would wait for more development before making a topic. We have seen several of these false twists in this area already this year. However, the hurricane belt could be turning on and this wave could be becoming favorable out ahead of 90L as an unexpected system. Wait and see.

[Weatherfreak000]

Highly unlikely, heavy 50kt wind shear it's gonna run into very soon should blast away all the convection.


Although if the convectionless wave makes it into a favorable Caribbean it's always a possibility.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, you can see a huge TUTT ripsawing the upper in the eastern Caribbean even on ir...

[Aric Dunn]

I saw it, but, myself, would wait for more development before making a topic. We have seen several of these false twists in this area already this year. However, the hurricane belt could be turning on and this wave could be becoming favorable out ahead of 90L as an unexpected system. Wait and see.

yep though this one looks a little different. and i have see small system form ahead of larger one over all pressures in the area are much lower than the past many weeks when we saw all those other "swirls" this is larger and has more convection than some of the previous one. But yeah we will have to wait

I was going to hold off on the topic but figured it was note worthy enough now to at least mention

[Aric Dunn]

Highly unlikely, heavy 50kt wind shear it's gonna run into very soon should blast away all the convection.


Although if the convectionless wave makes it into a favorable Caribbean it's always a possibility.

yeah although im not saying anything will develop that tutt is forecast to move west and right now the system is under less than 10kts of shear for at least the next 24 to 36 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

Highly unlikely, heavy 50kt wind shear it's gonna run into very soon should blast away all the convection.
Although if the convectionless wave makes it into a favorable Caribbean it's always a possibility.

yeah although im not saying anything will develop that tutt is forecast to move west and right now the system is under less than 10kts of shear for at least the next 24 to 36 hours

Yeah based on your visible shot there, those clouds don't look too sheared. Maybe SAL conditions are inhibiting convection... Nope just checked,

Looks a little dry on water vapor though...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html

[Aric Dunn]

I noticed the dry air before and yeah its probably casuing the minimal convection still interesting I think

[SouthFloridawx]

I noticed the dry air before and yeah its probably casuing the minimal convection still interesting I think

Yeah it definitely is... remember how a few days ago, we could hardly get convection in that area.

[Aric Dunn]

I noticed the dry air before and yeah its probably casuing the minimal convection still interesting I think

Yeah it definitely is... remember how a few days ago, we could hardly get convection in that area.

yep .. pressures were to high air was too dry and way too much sal .. now its the complete opposite almost!

I think we may see some more convection with it here soon .. there looks to be a lot of convergence going on

[Sanibel]

90L should take care of this.

[SouthFloridawx]

I noticed the dry air before and yeah its probably casuing the minimal convection still interesting I think

Yeah it definitely is... remember how a few days ago, we could hardly get convection in that area.

yep .. pressures were to high air was too dry and way too much sal .. now its the complete opposite almost!

I think we may see some more convection with it here soon .. there looks to be a lot of convergence going on

I think it was cmc who was showing a system develop in front of it, then absorbing it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED E ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS RELOCATION IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE
WHICH SHOWS AN INVERTED V-SHAPE TO IT'S CLOUD FIELD AND THE
SURROUNDING STRATOCUMULUS. MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS ALSO BECOME
EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. AT FIRST...IT WAS
THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD HAVE BEEN A MISSED FEATURE RATHER THAN
THE WAVE ALREADY ON THE ANALYSIS...BUT FURTHER INVESTIGATION
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. MET-9 SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS DISPLAY A
TRACEABLE SLOW MOVING FEATURE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
IN ADDITION...THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT INDICATES A SLOW MOVING
SLIGHT MOISTURE RIDGE WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAMS. SCATTRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY
CONFINED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
39W-45W.

2 PM Discussion.Aric,you have a good eye.

[luvcanescarol]

Hi. I'm a lurker, learning new things here every day. I would really like to hear what others, infinitely more qualified than myself, think of the satellite/radar map of Africa right now. Is this considered abnormally busy for Africa in mid-August, or does a train of disturbances usually appear right around now? Many thanks.

[Downdraft]

Hi. I'm a lurker, learning new things here every day. I would really like to hear what others, infinitely more qualified than myself, think of the satellite/radar map of Africa right now. Is this considered abnormally busy for Africa in mid-August, or does a train of disturbances usually appear right around now? Many thanks.

Nothing unusual for this time of year.

[Javlin]

You look at the VIS image this late in the day and it looks like something is trying to happen here.It remains to be seen but if it should it might actually happen fairly quickly.I am thinking that with the slower W movement or lets say lack of Easterly shear it might actually stack better.Well things are ramping;be safe.

[tailgater]

As if we didn't have enough to watch this system has very tight looking circulation with it, dry air should keep it in check for a while and Tutt in the eastern Carribean.

[MetroMike]

Well seems we need to change the heading of this thread to T.D.#4

[fwbbreeze]

Well seems we need to change the heading of this thread to T.D.#4

Actually this area is to the west of TD4 I believe.

[tailgater]

Nice visible sat.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes