Bob Breck, NO met says....

[MGC]

"system will turn well east of the United States and not affect the mainland."

Didn't Breck say Katrina would not affect New Orleans? Sure hope Bob is right this time......MGC

http://www.bobbreck.com

[HeeBGBz]

Oh Bob, that was yesterdays runs. Now the north south coast is the target du jour. I think it will hit em all. Do a big circle of the gulf, slide up the east coast, take in a broadway show, and then go fishing down to the Bahamas and south to the Caribbean and SA.

This was by no means a professional forecast. Obligatory disclaimer for the sarcasm impaired.

[Scorpion]

Huh?

[HollynLA]

Bob didn't learn his lesson from Katrina. It's too son for NHC to call it so it's certainly too soon for him to call it. Yes, he said Katrina would be an east coast storm. You know what?............. he was wrong.

[PTPatrick]

You know...PLease mods dont consider this a bash...but I wonder how a met keeps his job making statements like that. Its one thing if you are private forecaster, but if if you are on a big 3 network station(which if you are a poor southerner with rabbit ears, that is the ONLY news source you get)...why are you going to dispense mis information to the people that need it most. The only thing any US TV met should be saying is..."wait and see" at least until its in the carib.

[Steve]

>>You know...PLease mods dont consider this a bash...but I wonder how a met keeps his job making statements like that. Its one thing if you are private forecaster, but if if you are on a big 3 network station(which if you are a poor southerner with rabbit ears, that is the ONLY news source you get)...why are you going to dispense mis information to the people that need it most. The only thing any US TV met should be saying is..."wait and see" at least until its in the carib.

That's a very good question. For many years, I was known to defend Bob on radio call ins, newspaper forum wars and such. All of the morans who argued for NASH! NASH! NASH! as if he was some guru (which he wasn't), was ridiculous. They gave him credit for being the first local met to call Georges. They ignored that he had it hitting both Galveston and Tampa within the 12 hour period he said MS Gulf Coast.

But anyway, Bob was the best met in the region. He was highly respected and basically knew what he was talking about. Then all of the sudden in 2005, he started just making wacky predictions, the kind of predictions that a certain segment of the population would never be able to stand (the same ones who always hated Nash Roberts for proclaiming we were out of the woods for Betsy 65) and should not be able to stand. I don't know if he bolted from the old unwritten agreement where you were supposed to echo what the TPC was saying, and let's face it, there were a few years in the late 90's and early 00's where most of us were putting out better information that what we were getting from the Hurricane Center (vastly improved work from some of 2004-on IMHO). Maybe he just figured enough was enough and he wasn't going to get owned by mail-order catalog or internet-schooled mets who got the AMA seals or whatever and just dedided to call things like he saw them - making sure to be the first one to get his name in lights for a certain prediction. But people knew what was up. WVUE and later FOX8 were always #3 in the news ratings, but usually were #1 when there was a live weather disaster going on (at least once a year in the city...) because people knew they could trust them. Not so much anymore IMHO.

Steve

[crazycajuncane]

He should know better than anyone that no model can pin exact landfall 11 days out. We've seen models blow the forecast 24 hours out... see Hurricane Rita just as one of many examples.

He's a brave guy, but as you said... he lost a lot of credibility with his Katrina prediction.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I like Bob Breck..he's not always right, but, he is a great deal of the time....but, he is a pure scientist more than a met. He's always been that way...wayyy more into the physics side of meteorology. He looks at different things. He called Katrina...I heard it with my own ears. Two days out he said it was going to Biloxi...OK, so it went 20 miles West..big deal. No other met called it like he did. Channel 4 (the channel I generally watch), called it a day later, and Channel 6...they are always off when it comes to specifics.

[NDG]

I like Bob Breck..he's not always right, but, he is a great deal of the time....but, he is a pure scientist more than a met. He's always been that way...wayyy more into the physics side of meteorology. He looks at different things. He called Katrina...I heard it with my own ears. Two days out he said it was going to Biloxi...OK, so it went 20 miles West..big deal. No other met called it like he did. Channel 4 (the channel I generally watch), called it a day later, and Channel 6...they are always off when it comes to specifics.

LOL, two days before Katrina hit everyone knew that Katrina was going to hit in the LA/MS border, the NHC, wwltv, wdsu...were all saying so.
5 days before Katrina hit BB was 100% sure K was going up the east Coast US, because his Super Vyper was saying so. 4 days before Katrina hit right when Katrina was making the "unexpected westward track across S FL, Bob B. was still saying it was going go well east of N.O. because his super vyper was saying so.
It seems like that ever since he got his super vyper, is all about marketing. I remember when he used to say, "it ain't over until the fat lady sings"
And for him to now say that Dean is going up the east coast, is just as irresponsible to say that Dean is hitting N.O.

[hurricanetrack]

He really said that about Dean? I wish someone had video of that newscast. I would love to see it. There is no evidence to support a turn east of the United States anymore. None. Am I right? Can anyone show a reliable model that turns Dean sharply north over the next 120 hours, thus sending Dean harmlessly out to sea a la 2006? If anything, I would bet a little money that Dean hits Mexico like Gilbert did. That is a better call than missing to the east of the entire United States.

Again, he really said that? Wow.

[HurryKane]

Oh Bob, that was yesterdays runs. Now the north south coast is the target du jour. I think it will hit em all. Do a big circle of the gulf, slide up the east coast, take in a broadway show, and then go fishing down to the Bahamas and south to the Caribbean and SA.

This was by no means a professional forecast. Obligatory disclaimer for the sarcasm impaired.

Dean should see Mamma Mia! Nothing to bring a guy down like an earful of ABBA.

[patk_62]

I guess you all can't read his blog. I saw his forecast last night and he said nothing like that. He actually said we (in N.O.) won't have a good idea for our area until Sunday. I know he had one thing right, the night before Katrina he said we would be in a different world the next day. He also assailed the local gov't for not being pro-active in getting people out of the city. He may not be always on but if you can show me anyone (even on these boards) who is they can camp on my summer homes slab in Mississippi for the next storm.

[micktooth]

This is from his blog, I'm not quite sure what you read or heard. From Bobbreck.com:

Yep, after weeks of being quiet, the tropical activity has increased. Alarmed?..no, it's supposed to get active in August & September. Nervous?...you bet since we all pretty much can't take another Katrina this soon, if ever. To speculate where Dean is going beyond the next 3 days is foolish. Those of you who look at the long range computer models know that the GFS model has flipped-flopped daily on where Dean is going. One day it's coming to us...the next, to Houston, the next up the East coast of Florida, the next back in the Gulf. Bottom line, Nervous? Yes...Alarmed, not yet. Our key day will come by Sunday when we should know if Dean is still heading for the Gulf for next week.

[killah]

The only thing I could find on his site about Dean and where it is going is this posted Aug 13th, 07. If you guys see something different, post it for me please.

"Our key day will come by Sunday when we should know if Dean is still heading for the Gulf for next week."

[TSmith274]

Bob's a good guy. He did get Katrina wrong, and he has admitted that he was severely depressed about it for months. He is a good meterologist, and I bet he's learned his lesson. Don't try to be a hero.

[Steve]

To be fair, Viper hit Cindy really well earlier in 2005. Really, really well.

Steve

[Buck]

No one should be saying anything with any certainty... especially someone who may not be as good in the public graces as he once was. But I'm glad to see that now he's saying that it's too early. That's all anyone should be saying.

[Butterfly50]

Bob Breck is a extremely dedicated weather forcaster. He also stayed in New Orleans until the last possible minute informing residents of every update possible. Give him a break~back off. He does an excellent job.

[Downdraft]

T.V. mets are a sad lot in some ways lot. In 2004, Tom Terry here in Orlando made a good call with Charley turning and hitting the Orlando area. Since then he's been suddenly thrown into the limelight as some sort of hurricane guru here and when not doing that he hypes Viper as the model of all models. These guys usually parrot the NHC because you don't bite the hand that feeds you the same as how the Weather Channel could never have survived without the MRF and now they have to scream the praises of Viper, Doppler Double 2MillionX and all the other graphics garbage. Take Lyons versus Hope back in the old days. You wanted the company line you got Mr. "The Good News Is" Lyons OR you wanted the quiet voice of a man known to think for himself you got John Hope. Unfortunately the John Hope's are gone now. To show you how sick it's become in the broadcast media world Tom Terry will hype a 1/2 hour show Saturday about the coming storm and time to get ready. I bet every product during the commercials is a big sponsor for that network. Maybe why when all is said done we find ourselves in here rather than watching television even if I do consider myself a Stephanie Abrams watcher. To me chasing a hurricane would be to find out what beach she's on. The real info I can get from the net.

[NewOrleansMom]

As for Bob Breck or any other meteorologist...what they do is called forecasting and
everyone on this forum obviously enjoys giving it a try.

Definition of forecast - a prediction, to calculate or estimate, anticipate, etc., etc.

Although forcasting is much better today than ever and the improved science of it all brings it close to being extremely accurate, when all is said and done ...it's still a scientific "guess", because it's called Mother Nature and she really calls the shots in the end.

I just don't know how people can judge someone for getting it wrong. It happens ...and I'm NOT a Bob Breck fan. But I do appreciate the yelling and fussing he was doing for Katrina when there were huge gridlocks on the highways due to poor evacuation planning with redlights and stop signs holding people up. On the air, he blasted the state government. For that alone, I respect him.

Having to make a call for an approaching storm, a storm that "might and probably will" make a huge impact on the lives of thousands...I call that courageous. These meteoroloigists have my admiration, it takes guts to make a "prediction" of that magnitude, knowing you may very well be wrong.