Are the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity maps accurate?

[wxmann_91]

The waters in the NGOM are around 30°C, but according to those maps, they can only support a 980 mb storm? Something seems fishy here. Did they tweak the formula for Heat Content? I recall that before, these maps were fairly accurate - only a couple of storms intensified passed the MPI. There's also an odd looking anomaly in the WPAC just east of 25N 140E, BTW.

[RL3AO]

Are you sure it wasn't 880mb?

[btangy]

The waters in the NGOM are around 30°C, but according to those maps, they can only support a 980 mb storm? Something seems fishy here. Did they tweak the formula for Heat Content? I recall that before, these maps were fairly accurate - only a couple of storms intensified passed the MPI. There's also an odd looking anomaly in the WPAC just east of 25N 140E, BTW.

MPI shouldn't take in to consideration the heat content. Rather, it only considers the SST. I think what you're seeing is just the graphics routine trying to interpolate between MPI values over land, which are 0, and values over water. The last major revision to the MPI theory was in 1998 to account for dissipative heating. I don't think any other changes have been made since then.

[wxmann_91]

The waters in the NGOM are around 30°C, but according to those maps, they can only support a 980 mb storm? Something seems fishy here. Did they tweak the formula for Heat Content? I recall that before, these maps were fairly accurate - only a couple of storms intensified passed the MPI. There's also an odd looking anomaly in the WPAC just east of 25N 140E, BTW.

MPI shouldn't take in to consideration the heat content. Rather, it only considers the SST. I think what you're seeing is just the graphics routine trying to interpolate between MPI values over land, which are 0, and values over water. The last major revision to the MPI theory was in 1998 to account for dissipative heating. I don't think any other changes have been made since then.

Okay, that's what others have been saying. It might be interpolating, but the area of low MPI is rather large. And it doesn't explain the anomalous WPAC dent.

I remember August last year, the MPI was below 880 mb all across the GOM. So far it's still ~890-900 mb sketchy regions of the GOM (most other areas are weaker).

Maybe the maps are wrong? They all say updated Aug 16, but it seems like the maps haven't changed in several months.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html