GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[wxmann_91]

The anomalies continue to cool; if this trend continues the AMO might be around 0.00 this month.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html



(Someone please enlighten me on how the AMO is calculated.)

[harmclan]

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation can normally be determined by its affects on the temperature and amount of rainfall in areas across the Northern Hemisphere (including SSTs in regards to the impact on tropical weather). Cool to warm phase transitions normally take place for 20-40 years (we are presently in a warm phase since about 1995.) Another observed change is the increase in convection that spreads across Florida in the warm phase, or positive phase, of the AMO, leaving areas in the Midwest and Southwest in drought type conditions. The vice versa occurs during the cool, or negative phase, of the AMO with Florida experiencing prolonged times of no rainfall and drought like conditions.

In regards to how the different AMO phases correlates with increased or decreased tropical activity a debate can be made for the presence of increased cyclone genesis during the positive AMO, especially the number of weak tropical storms that have evolved into major hurricanes. The most intense and devastating hurricanes have been noted during the warm phase of the AMO (reference the above normal seasons that have been seen in the Atlantic since the warm phase in 1995 to present).

[Meso]

Quick comparison of SSTs from 2 weeks ago.While the temperature in the gulf may have gone down in a bit in areas,the temperature along the east coast has warmed up quite a bit

[cycloneye]

wxmann 91,I think it's a combination of the sal not allowing for strong sunlight to warm the waters and second the Azores High that has been way up there in pressure 1030+ mbs for a few weeks causing upwelling,cooling most of the MDR.

What do you think about that?

[cycloneye]

In general,the Atlantic is a warmer ocean than last week's Reynolds update.The MDR,Western Atlantic,The Caribbean and the SE GOM are warmer this week.

[benny]

wxmann 91,I think it's a combination of the sal not allowing for strong sunlight to warm the waters and second the Azores High that has been way up there in pressure 1030+ mbs for a few weeks causing upwelling,cooling most of the MDR.

What do you think about that?

I don't believe the SAL has anything to do with SSTs this month (and only a little bit ever). Most of the effect can be explained due to the near average subtropical ridging this June-July-- over the long run, near average trade winds cause the SSTs in the tropical atlantic to be near average. I think after the data is in, the SAL will be much below average for July. Another trade surge is coming by the end of the week... and then the dust people will come out of the woodwork saying the season is over. I think the dust says a lot more about the state of the atmosphere than any small effect the dust is having on the climate.

[Hurricaneman]

look at the temps off the east coast, theyre mindboggling, even off the mid atlantic coast
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs_n/aver ... 2_mult.png

[Cyclenall]

look at the temps off the east coast, theyre mindboggling, even off the mid atlantic coast
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs_n/aver ... 2_mult.png

That image can't be right, those temps are just like in the GOM. You can even see the gulf stream in that one. Can there be a comparison for that image last year and early August 2005?

[Hurricaneman]

look at the temps off the east coast, theyre mindboggling, even off the mid atlantic coast
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs_n/aver ... 2_mult.png

That image can't be right, those temps are just like in the GOM. You can even see the gulf stream in that one. Can there be a comparison for that image last year and early August 2005?

2005 http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/avhrr/gs_ ... 5_mult.png

2006 the data was messed up

[Ptarmigan]

The anomalies continue to cool; if this trend continues the AMO might be around 0.00 this month.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html



(Someone please enlighten me on how the AMO is calculated.)

I notice the waters are generally normal or cooler.

[cycloneye]

This is the latest update from Reynolds,and it shows a near average to slightly warm Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

This is the Heat Content data in the Atlantic Basin.The Western Caribbean and the SE GOM are running above the 2005 levels in terms of temps.

[Shawee]

This is the Heat Content data in the Atlantic Basin.The Western Caribbean and the SE GOM are running above the 2005 levels in terms of temps.

Is this reflective of the lack of storms this year not mixing the water column, something different or acombination? Are there comparisons to previous years???

Go Saints!

[windycity]

Ok folks. Looking at the SST charts you can see the heat content, which is more important. The temps in the loop current are higher than 2005! That said, i hope people are prepared. I remember the pro mets in 2005, they were awsome getting the word out, problem is, alot of people didn't take them seriously. I pray this time around, it will be different.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Jet fuel ready to explode in the Gulf.

[JonathanBelles]

Can I see a comparasion of 2005 and 2007?

[windycity]

Fact, on page 15 of SSts you can see the comparison to 2005, hope that helps!

[Sanibel]

Gulf Of Mexico off Sanibel: 93* (That is hot!)

[cycloneye]

The latest Reynolds weekly update.The Atlantic looks warmer than in the past few weeks,coinciding with the peak of the season.

[JabNOLA]

As Dean makes landfall this evening it should be noted that with the short track of Erin and the southern route by Dean, in regards SST'S the Northwest Caribbean and entire Gulf of Mexico are open for business into September.