Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

[CrazyC83]

Thanks crazy. I hope some other people can help me before I go to church. I would like to let people know what is possible.

I wouldn't bet the farm on it happening again being such an extreme event, but there is no reason why it can't.

[PTPatrick]

Well, Allison did some crazy things over land as well. I Will never forget waking up to Allison Passing from LA into southern MIssissippi with and "eye" feature. We were warned at all...and got some good gusts and torential rain. Power even went out.

[HurricaneRobert]

Australia also gets some pretty severe cyclones intensifying over land.

ETA Forgot the link

[Gully Washer]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192342
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING
THE REMNANTS WELL AT ALL.

CURRENTLY...LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY
OF PONCA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOWING A
MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE HAD ALMOST
6/10THS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN TEN MINUTES FROM ONE OF THESE
CELLS AS IT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. RUC CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BASICALLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FIRING UP. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS 850MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWING
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLOUD
COVERAGE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN. STARTING TO GET SOME
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIN...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND TRACKS THE
LOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WITH 6 HOURLY QPF VALUES OVER AN INCH OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DRY HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND THE
RAIN IS A WELCOMED RELIEF...BUT GIVEN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE
STORMS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WE KEEP A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40KTS
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY ON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. TUESDAY INTO THE WEEK. GET SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S
THROUGH THE WEEK...THAT WILL GET OUR HEAT INDICES BACK UP TO AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

GCC
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...REMNANT OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM
ERIN CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE REGION. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK AS WELL AS SW MO AND
NW ARK. THIS ON AGAIN...OFF AGAIN SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR BOTH SGF AND JLN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL OCCUR AS THE
BANDS OF SHRA DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NNE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A LARGER BAND OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP NEAR
SW MO TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. WILL
AMEND THE TAFS AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BANDS OF SHRA. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO
OSAGE BEACH FROM 9 PM THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO SGF

[CrazyC83]

Finally, Erin has been downgraded from a tropical depression to a tropical low. But that doesn't end the flood threat...

[MGC]

Tropical Storm Oklahoma......MGC

[WxGuy1]

Flooding caused by Erin earlier this morning has resulted in 6 confirmed deaths in Oklahoma alone per KOCO (the local ABC affiliate in OKC) --> http://www.koco.com/news/13926134/detail.html

Also, KWTV (local NBC affiliate in OKC) has good video of some water rescues at http://www.newsok.com/ ... Some of this video is also on CNN's front page at this time.

I've loaded some more images to http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/Erin/ ... Again, there was some asymmetry to the flow field (though many TDs and TSs aren't entirely symmetric), and there was some baroclinity. However, looking at upper-air observations, observed wind speeds, and radar imagery, I can't imagine that the NHC won't upgrade Erin to a Tropical Storm when they examine the storm over OK in their post-season analysis. This was definatley more tropical than extratropical, that's for sure!

[Gully Washer]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200056
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

REMNANT WAVE OF WHAT WAS ONCE TS ERIN CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE INTO
THE REGION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WE ARE
LOSING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ALOFT...HOWEVER...WAT VAP IMAGERY AND
RUC INITIALIZATIONS OF WIND AND VORTICITY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR OR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE MO/KS BORDER. EXTRAPOLATING RECENT TRENDS...THIS WAVE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE ENE AND GRADUALLY OPEN AS ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 925/850MB WINDS OF
25-30KTS...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT
BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND THE RUC INDICATE THAT A 40KT LLJ IS
IMMINENT...RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN INFLUX
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BANDS OF SHRA AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO EMANATE FROM THE CENTRAL
CIRCULATION THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL CENTERING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS SITUATION IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
CWA THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN ONLY SPORADICLY
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...EARLIER RAINFALL HAS QUELLED TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED
SFC BASED CAPE AND LI. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A
WARM CORE SYSTEM...AND PWS ARE NEAR TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TONIGHT. HAIL WILL BE NEARLY NON
EXISTENT...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF TORNADOES AS SFC BASED
ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WELL POSITIONED AND WILL CONTINUE AS
ADVERTISED. AN UPDATE TO HOURLY GRIDS IS FORTHCOMING...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

GAGAN

&&

[CrazyC83]

I would best classify it as a subtropical storm. What was the highest sustained wind report?

[Gully Washer]

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Watonga, Watonga Airport, OK, United States

Conditions at            2007.08.19 0754 UTC
Wind                       from the SE (140 degrees) at 48 MPH (42 KT) gusting to 82 MPH (71 KT)
Visibility                   3/4 mile(s)
Sky conditions           obscured
Weather                   Heavy rain
Precipitation last hour 1.10 inches
Temperature              73 F (23 C)
Dew Point                  73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity        100%
Pressure (altimeter)    29.68 in. Hg (1005 hPa)
ob    KJWG 190754Z AUTO 14042G71KT 3/4SM +RA VV005 23/23 A2968 RMK AO2 P0110 TSNO

24 Hour Summary
   
Time  EDT (UTC)     Temp F(C) Dew Point F(C)  Inches (hPa)   Wind MPH
4 AM (8) Aug 19       73 (23)       73 (23)        29.68 (1005)      SE 48       heavy rain
3AM (7) Aug 19        73 (23)       73 (23)        29.74 (1007)      SSE 33     rain
2 AM (6) Aug 19       73 (23)       73 (23)        29.77 (1008)      SSE 38     heavy rain
1 AM (5) Aug 19       75 (24)       75 (24)        29.86 (1011)      ESE 25     heavy rain
Midnight (4) Aug 19   75 (24)       75 (24)        29.89 (1012)      ESE 16     rain
11 PM (3) Aug 18      75 (24)       75 (24)        29.92 (1013)      ESE 16     light rain
10 PM (2) Aug 18      75 (24)       75 (24)        29.93 (1013)      ESE 13     light rain
9 PM (1) Aug 18        75 (24)       75 (24)        29.94 (1013)      SE 17      rain
8 PM (0) Aug 18        75 (24)       75 (24)        29.95 (1014)      SE 12      light rain
7 PM (23) Aug 18      75 (24)       75 (24)        29.96 (1014)      SE 10      light drizzle
6 PM (22) Aug 18      75 (24)       75 (24)        29.98 (1015)       SE 9       light rain
5 PM (21) Aug 18      78 (26)       77 (25)            30 (1015)        S 3        light rain

Last reading from Watonga at 4 AM

Source: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KJWG.html

[Pebbles]

Erin is playing a role into the thunder currently rolling over my head here in Chicagoland. We possibly may be seeing a record amount of rain. Here's a clip from the insanely long discussion out of the Chicago NWS which mention it.

Move half way across the country and these things still effect me! LOL

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FACTORS INVOLVED THAT ARE ALL LEADING TO THIS
POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL. THE FIRST FACTOR IS A WARM FRONT
THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
LAYOUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IL/IN AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. THE SECOND FACTOR IS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS
UP...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A MANNER
THAT WILL POSITION THE NOSE OF THIS 40-50KT JET RIGHT UP INTO
NORTHERN IL. THIS FAVORABLE POSITION WILL ADVECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF...PUTTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE
2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE NOSE POSITION WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STORMS WILL LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF IT. THE THIRD FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF TD ERIN. THE
SFC LOW THAT USED TO BE ERIN IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND HAS PULLED EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO. THE FOURTH FACTOR
...AND PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FOR FLOODING PURPOSES...IS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE WIND
PROFILE IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH MEANS THAT STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL ALL BE PUSHED IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINED UP IN THE SAME WEST-EAST DIRECTION...THE
STORMS WILL GO OVER THE SAME AREAS...LEADING TO FLOODING. CORFIDI
VECTORS WILL ALSO NEGATE ANY FORWARD PROPAGATION AND WILL PROBABLY
LEAD TO BACKBUILDING AS WELL. OVERALL...EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...PRETTY SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN SE MN/SW WI LAST NIGHT
WHERE THEY RECEIVED UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL. AM EXPECTING
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN IL/IN TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING...BACK OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AN
INCH TO THREE INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. HAVE GONE ON THE SAFE SIDE ON
QPF VALUES ALONG THE THINKING OF HPC WITH A SWATH OF THREE TO FIVE
INCHES OF RAIN FROM ABOUT RFD ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO NORTHERN IN.
SEEING MORE THAN THIS AMOUNT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

[tolakram]

Weather Underground archived radar loop.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2007/erin_okc.gif

The remains of Erin are headed to Cincinnati tonight, we're under a flood watch.

[AnnularCane]

Erin seems to be doing a lot more travelling as remnants than as an active tropical system.

[wxmann_91]

That's quite interesting. It's almost certain that Erin received some baroclinic boost. Wonder how the NHC will classify it in post-analysis?

[btangy]

That's quite interesting. It's almost certain that Erin received some baroclinic boost. Wonder how the NHC will classify it in post-analysis?

There was very little baroclinicity from what I can tell, and the behavior definitely didn't look baroclinic. Shear didn't really increase till later in the day. Something else was going on, and I'm sure people in the research community will study this case in depth given it was highly anomalous. It helps that it was situated over the OK mesonet too, so at least there will be high density surface obs to review. This is unlike any nocturnal MCV event I've ever seen.

[Gully Washer]

000
WTNT35 KWNH 200850
TCPAT5

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 23 FOR REMNANTS OF ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIN HAD
ALREADY DISSIPATED. AT 3 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADARS SHOWED THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIN...IN THE FORM OF
FRAGMENTED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
IN SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 300 AM CDT
MONDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 11.02 3 DAY TOTAL
SENS RD 9.33 3 DAY TOTAL
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST 8.50 3 DAY TOTAL
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING 8.43 3 DAY TOTAL
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA 7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 5.51

BOERNE 5.6 NE 10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT 9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE 9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW 8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW 8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE 7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N 7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO 7.46
HONDO 8.7E 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE 6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS 5.96
6 WSW BOERNE 5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT 5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT 5.02


...OKLAHOMA...

GEARY 9.8 WNW 11.03
FORT COBB 9.04
EL RENO 8.33
NORMAN 2.3 NNE 8.12
MINCO 6.43
MUSTANG 2.1 WNW 6.38
WALTERS 6.15
EDMOND 1.6 W 5.46
OKLAHOMA CITY 5.39
APACHE 5.30
WATONGA 4.60
LAWTON MUNI AIRPORT 4.42

...MISSOURI...

JOPLIN 2.55


THE REMAINING MOISTURE FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERIN ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THIS STORM.

KONG/ECKERT



$$

[Chacor]

This can be merged with the other Erin thread already in the archive now.

Just for kicks, NEXRAD radar imagery of Erin's "eye"...