this just shows how good of a job the nhc did 5 days out!!

[storm4u]

Great job!!!

[Frank2]

Far out - we should e-mail a copy of this to those sour grapes at AW...

[miamicanes177]

I'll give full credit to the GFS. The GFS had this one pinned while it was still in Africa! It was calling for a Mexico landfall at over 300 hours in advance! That is a full 2 weeks notice. It only briefly had the East Coast at risk, but once it finally locked onto Mexico it did not flip again. And that was over 7 days in advance.

[Frank2]

Still, it was up to the NHC forecasters to either believe this forecast or throw it out, so...

[gtalum]

Wow, nice job NHC! Just one hour and ~50 miles off at 5 days. Not bad...

[southerngale]

The NHC did a superb job with Dean. Way to go, guys!

[gatorcane]

The NHC did a good job overall. It did underestimate the ridge in the beginning with the cone pointing at the SE Bahamas and Greater Antilles...they kept shifting the track left...(I think most of us underestimated how strong the ridge was. Climatology says Dean is a fish or finds some weakness in its journey across the Caribbean -- it actually acted more like a September storm). In addition the cone covered LA and Texas at one point which caused Texas to undergo preparations measures that were not required and probably expensive to implement.

but other than that I do hand it to them.

[southerngale]

The NHC did a good job overall. It did underestimate the ridge in the beginning with the cone pointing at the SE Bahamas and Greater Antilles...they kept shifting the track left...(I think most of us underestimated how strong the ridge was. Climatology says Dean is a fish or finds some weakness in its journey across the Caribbean -- it actually acted more like a September storm). In addition the cone covered LA and Texas at one point which caused Texas to undergo preparations measures that were not required and probably expensive to implement.

but other than that I do hand it to them.

The way we look at it (including the officials I've heard), is that it was a good practice run for early preps when a storm could threaten.

[vbhoutex]

The NHC did a good job overall. It did underestimate the ridge in the beginning with the cone pointing at the SE Bahamas and Greater Antilles...they kept shifting the track left...(I think most of us underestimated how strong the ridge was. Climatology says Dean is a fish or finds some weakness in its journey across the Caribbean -- it actually acted more like a September storm). In addition the cone covered LA and Texas at one point which caused Texas to undergo preparations measures that were not required and probably expensive to implement.

but other than that I do hand it to them.

The way we look at it (including the officials I've heard), is that it was a good practice run for early preps when a storm could threaten.

Better prepared and safe, than sorry!!!

HUGE KUDO'S TO NHC!!!!!

[gatorcane]

The NHC did a good job overall. It did underestimate the ridge in the beginning with the cone pointing at the SE Bahamas and Greater Antilles...they kept shifting the track left...(I think most of us underestimated how strong the ridge was. Climatology says Dean is a fish or finds some weakness in its journey across the Caribbean -- it actually acted more like a September storm). In addition the cone covered LA and Texas at one point which caused Texas to undergo preparations measures that were not required and probably expensive to implement.

but other than that I do hand it to them.

The way we look at it (including the officials I've heard), is that it was a good practice run for early preps when a storm could threaten.

Yes, I do agree. Ultimately they were not required but hindsight is 20/20 and it is better to be safe than sorry. The FL Keys for example have not been hit with a major (Wilma was close for the lower Keys) for several Decades but have undergone so many preparation measures that have impacted the economy....(i.e. tourists having to evacuate etc)..

[Ixolib]

Just goes to show that a group of dedicated and motivated individuals will perform their jobs just fine - if not at their best - in the absence of "THE BOSS"!!!!!!!

[brunota2003]

Here's one even before Dean was a hurricane:

Notice Dean goes just south of Jamacia? (spelling)

[vaffie]

Very impressive work indeed. Kudos to the NHC--they rock! They got the track perfectly, they got the strength, they got everything, they warned everyone well in advance, ensured that the storm was constantly being checked by reconnaisance, and warned the Texas coast well in advance to pay attention just in case they were wrong. Great work.

[jasons2k]

Someone needs to send this to Fox News and the &^%&% who wrote that article bashing them.