All is Quiet Now But Sept 10th is approaching

[gatorcane]

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Sept 10th is the climatological peak...

I would expect somet things to get going over the next couple of weeks. I forsee a generally quiet time for the the next 7 days but things ramping up again as we approach Sept 1st.

One huge sign is the fact the Upper-Level winds are continuing to relax across much of the Atlantic. Take a look at shear tendency, which shows whether the Upper-Level winds are decreasing or increasing...there is alot of blues across the Atlantic (means decreasing)



One counterargument to mine is the fact SAL continues to dominate the MDR. Dean made it through but it emerged off Africa at the perfect lattitude of 10N:



Thoughts?

[marcane_1973]

The SAL is not set in a good place for development. Your right that Dean snuck in there at the perfect time. It seems that is what it is going to take to get these Cape verde storms forming. Perfect timing and alot of luck looks to be a big key in the Eastern atlantic. This will most likely be an avearge to below average year. I see this Hurricane season not busting out in the month of September with storm after storm forming. More like something pops up and surprises us form time to time. NOAA also said that the reason for more activity is because of calmer upper level winds in the Eastern atlantic for the month of August. Haven't seen that yet. What happened to that deal??? It has been mostly very strong Easterlies. Things can change real quick as we all know and maybe everything will line up just right and we might see storm after storm getting pumped out of the Atlantic at some point in September. It could even go into mid October or early November and become a strange rare late Hurricane season. Who knows??? it is still early in the ballgame and we have alot of time left but my gut tells me this will not be as active as NOAA is predicting. Hopefully Mr Mean Dean will be the biggest story this year and the GOM gets a break again. If anything send a storm into the Carolinas... PLEASE!!!! We need the rain bigtime. This could be one of the worst droughts on record if nothing changes real soon.

[windstorm99]

Even though the SAL is there it is not as siginificant in nature as it was a few weeks back.Looks rather weak.

[Ptarmigan]

I see a lull for now and picking up again in late August to especially September.

[cycloneye]

Labor day weekend almost every year has at a minimun one system out there.Lets see if this years labor day weekend has something to track.

[dwg71]

I will predict nothing named the remainder of August. At the statistical 1/2 point (8/31) we will be at 5/1/1

[jaxfladude]

My goodness could the final number of named storms be only in the single digits or ten at most?
It sure does look that away, almost halfway thru the hurricane season and only Five named storms so far...

[Coredesat]

We are only just entering the peak period of the season.

[jaxfladude]

Labor day weekend almost every year has at a minimum one system out there.Lets see if this years labor day weekend has something to track.

The conditions are not expect to be favorable at all during that time-frame...(at least I hope that they are not)
I want Dean to be the only major hurricane of the season.....Dean was enough for me....maybe next season we can be less "bored"....

[jaxfladude]

The SAL is not set in a good place for development. Your right that Dean snuck in there at the perfect time. It seems that is what it is going to take to get these Cape Verde storms forming. Perfect timing and alot of luck looks to be a big key in the Eastern Atlantic. This will most likely be an average to below average year. I see this Hurricane season not busting out in the month of September with storm after storm forming. More like something pops up and surprises us form time to time. NOAA also said that the reason for more activity is because of calmer upper level winds in the Eastern Atlantic for the month of August. Haven't seen that yet. What happened to that deal??? It has been mostly very strong Easterlies. Things can change real quick as we all know and maybe everything will line up just right and we might see storm after storm getting pumped out of the Atlantic at some point in September. It could even go into mid October or early November and become a strange rare late Hurricane season. Who knows??? it is still early in the ball-game and we have alot of time left but my gut tells me this will not be as active as NOAA is predicting. Hopefully Mr Mean Dean will be the biggest story this year and the GOM gets a break again. If anything send a storm into the Carolinas... PLEASE!!!! We need the rain bigtime. This could be one of the worst droughts on record if nothing changes real soon.

What a very wet TS at most not a slow mover but at a good speed for long heavy rains with the lest amount of flooding?

[fci]

Yeah, Dean kind of snuck in at the right time.
And we keep hearing that things will pick up... and they don't.
No one REALLY knows (or they are not saying LOL)

Look, almost all Mets said that 92L would develop, even the conservative ones were saying TS or Hurricane.
And what happens??? POOF.

Not because they don't know what they are talking about.
Conditions were RIGHT.
Except no one told Mother Nature and SHE decided to just blow out the candle on 92L
And just about everything else out there except Dean.

And as for Dean, there was a lot of damage to The Antilles, Jamaica, Yucatan and Mexico.
But it could have been a whole lot worse.

So, lets all hope for a continuation of a relatively quiet season.

[crazycajuncane]

It would be interesting to have two years back to back with no U.S. Landfalling hurricane.

I think it's too early to tell though. Who is to say we won't get some late GOM storms like Sept - Oct? It's quiet now and looks relatively quiet for a week or two, but things change quick "in da tropics"

[boca]

In 2006 we had 9 named storms, so far in 2007 we have 5.We are technically in the peak of the season right now. It doesn't have to be Sept 10th for all hell to break loose.Maybe well go through the peak with unfavorable conditions,no one really knows for sure. Nothing is spinning down the ITCZ and I don't know why, Sal or maybe the Azores high strenghtened causing nothing to pop.