2 years ago today... what if and a lesson for all (Kat in Mi

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

Since the tropics are dead tonight, I made this post reflecting back on Katrina's first US landfall and started speculating what if Katrina had more time over the water before impacting Miami... read the nightly update I made at PNJ to see how horrific the results would have been

[windstorm99]

Excellent stuff Derek....

One thing for sure is never focus on that black line and if your area is placed under a warning you must prepare as if the storm were coming right for you.As in the last minute the storm can change direction and move right over your community.To this day i dont understand why so many people in south florida were caught of guard with katrina when our entire area was under a warning.A hurricane warning means preparation must be rushed to completion.Hopefully next time something threatens the area folks will not focus on that black line.Adrian

Once again we are lucky....Just a few more hours and the outcome would have been very different for south florida.

[RattleMan]

"Had Tropical depression 10 reformed into TD 12 just 12-24 hours earlier, Miami would have joined Alabama, Mississippi, an New Orleans as sites that were forever changed by that truly terrible storm."

As a stronger storm at Florida landfall, would the track have been the same? Would it still make that final landfall where it did?

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, final lanfall likely would have been at the same place and the WSW track still would have occurred

[Tropics Guy]

Yea, I remember it vividly, was driving home from work that day, barely got back to my condo in Dania Beach and remember tree limbs snapping & flying all around. I remember a lot of people were surprised at how quickly she strengthened before landfall around the aventura area.

TG

[Ptarmigan]

Unbelievable! If Katrina became a major hurricane right before it hit South Florida, that would be really catastrophic on top of the Gulf Coast. Also, the fact that, it could of become a major hurricane right before landfall and few people are prepared and many caught off guard. The death toll could of been horrendous, comparable to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. If that's the case, Katrina could be in league with Mitch and the Great 1780 Hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

not that deadly


Southeast Florida is the least surge prone part of the mainland; however, we could have had a high death toll from the winds via peopl blown out of the highrises

[Ptarmigan]

not that deadly


Southeast Florida is the least surge prone part of the mainland; however, we could have had a high death toll from the winds via peopl blown out of the highrises

True. There is a lot of development in the Miami area and that would be bad from all that wind. Also, you would have to contend with flying debris and getting hit by them would be no fun.

[DrewFL]

Good grief Derek!

Crap that did not happen ....did not happen. Speculate on the commodities.....storms do...what they do.

[Ixolib]

Interesting approach, but these kinds of "what if" scenarios always amuse me....

I mean, what if a bullfrog had wings? Well, he wouldn't bump his butt every time he jumped.

[CrazyC83]

That is so true! Even 6 to 8 hours more in the Gulf Stream would have made Katrina a Category 3 IMO with 115 mph winds (since I think the intensification would have accelerated). 12 to 16 hours would have got her to Category 4 with 145 mph winds and it would have been the same impact as Charley the previous year - over a much more heavily populated area. Another comparison would have been the 1926 Miami hurricane.

In the Gulf, it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome much as eyewall cycles would have moved Katrina up and down, although it would have hit near peak intensity sooner.

[DanKellFla]

Good stuff, unfortunetly nothing surprsing to the people on this board.

And that is a good picture. Now go to the Clevelander and have a drink.

[storm4u]

I know this is bad to say but it might have been good if it got stronger. There could have been a chance of a more north movement and it could have spared new orleans the worse!!

[HollynLA]

I know this is bad to say but it might have been a good if it got stronger. There could have been a chance of a more noth movement and it could have spared new orleans the worse!!

Well, unfortunately, this wasn't the "worst" for NOLA. It was very bad, yes, but it could've been much much worse.

[Derek Ortt]

everyone,

please forget that soundbite that says stronger means more north. It is just not true at all. If anything, Katrina would have moved a little more to the south quicker and would have been even closer to the Keys

With that deep layered steering flow, there is a greater chance that everyone in the Florida keys will evacuate for the next major hurricane than there is this would have moved north

[CrazyC83]

I know this is bad to say but it might have been a good if it got stronger. There could have been a chance of a more noth movement and it could have spared new orleans the worse!!

Well, unfortunately, this wasn't the "worst" for NOLA. It was very bad, yes, but it could've been much much worse.

A stronger Florida landfall probably would not have changed the intensity much at final landfall. That is because Katrina would have peaked earlier and gone into an eyewall cycle sooner.