Storms of Sep and Oct could show if Forecasts have improved

[Berwick Bay]

Thinking back to '04 and '05 here. Significant error in NHC 72 hour Katrina forecast (track to Appalachicola) and Katrina was a late Aug storm. In general though, forecasts are better with Aug storms (steering currents less subject to change). Sep and Oct is a different matter. 72 hour Rita forecast (late Sep) took Rita to central Texas not La-Tex border. 72 hour Jeanne forecast had storm missing Fl altogether, instead of crossing the penninsula. Also 72 hour Ivan forecast had Ivan coming in hundreds of miles to the east of Gulf Shores Al. So even though we do have a 5 day forecast, still waiting to see if there has been significant improvement in 3 day forecast for storms in Sep and Oct and in particular for storms between 25 and 30 N near our US shores.