dwg71 wrote:hial2 wrote:Typical conditions usually = 2 to 4 strikes in CONUS...this is the closest I remember NOAA forecasting the possibility of storm strike...though theyre clear that they cant forecast exactly where..my question is WHERE do they USUALLY strike under the forecast conditions? Anyone knows where to find that info??
I would think a later activity season would mean eastern gulf, florida, and east coast. Western Gulf is usually closed after 10/1. Jerry in 89 is the only Texas cane I can recall that late in the season, it was a cat 1.
I definitely agree that later season activity is better for the Western Gulf. Even Rita was pretty late for Texas. I had already put my guard down *somewhat* when she came roaring through. Now I know better.
Anyway, for informational purposes, here's some other Texas hurricanes that NOAA lists. I'll skip the 1527-1800 period.. hehe... but they show some late systems hitting/affecting Texas.
Geesh... after going through all of these hurricanes, there's a LOT more Texas hits in September than I realized. Rita wasn't as late as I thought.
October 2nd-6th, 1837: Racer's Storm The first recorded storm to rake the entire coast was Racer's Storm on October 5th, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the storm in the extreme Northwest Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the 19th century due to its extreme duration and 2000 mile long path of destruction.
The hurricane made landfall briefly south of Brownsville near Matamoros, lashing the coast for three days as the storm slowed to a near halt from the 2nd through the 4th of October. All vessels in Brazos Santiago fell victim to the storm. Paralleling the coast northeast, the storm took another ship victim offshore Matagorda Bay. Settlements along the bay all suffered heavy losses. All vessels at Velasco were driven ashore.
November 5th, 1839: Hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the season.
October 5th, 1842: A storm brushed by Galveston, flooding the town. The schooner Dream foundered between Galveston and New Orleans. All aboard the ill-fated craft were rescued.
The village of Brazos Santiago had been established by the Mexican government as a customs point for many years prior. An army garrison had been established there after Texas gained independence. The village site was just a few feet above sea level on Brazos Island and was extremely vulnerable to coastal flooding.
October 17th, 1848: A hurricane struck the Lower Coast. Brazos Santiago Island was under two feet of water. Several vessels were lost near Port Isabel. Tides were reported to be high at Corpus Christi.
On October 2nd-3rd, 1867, An intense hurricane struck the mouth of the Rio Grande with great fury and devastated both cities. Clarksville was soon abandoned, and a later storm in 1874 finished off Baghdad. A few glass and metal relics buried in the sand are all that remain of both towns. The population at their peaks totaled over 20,000. All wharves were nearly demolished. It was considered the most severe and disastrous in the city's history, up to that time. Galveston was inundated by the storm surge on the 3rd, which was measured at 1 foot higher than the 1854 storm. All wharves were nearly demolished. Mud slides buried Matamoros. This storm followed a path similar to the Racer's Storm, and produced great damage along the entire coast. It is regarded as the first "million dollar" hurricane in Texas. In an editorial after the storm in the "Ranchero," a Brownsville newspaper that evolved into the present day Brownsville Herald, the editor asked the question, "What would happen if a similar storm struck Galveston directly as it had the lower coast?"
September 30th-October 2nd, 1871: The third hurricane affect Texas that season moved just offshore the length of the coast. A ship named the S.S.. Hall sunk during the storm; all hands were lost. On Mustang Island, it was the severest gale in 16 years. Tides at Indianola were the highest since 1844; most of the town flooded. The jail at Lavaca was washed away. Many people died in the tempest.
October 12th, 1880: A hurricane struck Brownsville. The city was nearly destroyed and many lives were lost. This storm is listed in many books but may be a reference to the storm in August since the National Hurricane Center and the Climatic Diagnostics Center do not recognize this system among the storms of 1880.
October 12-13th, 1886: This hurricane proved much more devastating. At Galveston, winds reached 50 m.p.h., causing the Gulf to invade the island. Little, if any, damage was seen there. At Orange, trees were downed and the Catholic Church was leveled. Sabine Pass, at the time a small city of several hundred, was "virtually swept out of existence." The full fury raged during the afternoon of the 12th. The winds began out of the east and became southerly with time. By 5 P.M., winds reached 100 m.p.h.. Waves 20 feet high rolled in from the Gulf. Nearly every house in the area was moved from its foundation, including a hotel with 15-20 people inside, which was washed out to sea. Ten to eleven miles of railroad track was damaged. Furniture was strewn along the coast. One hundred two people perished in that city alone. Thousands of dead cattle, hogs, horses, and fowl laid everywhere after the storm. The schooner Henrietta went ashore and was considered a total loss. The schooner Silas was shoved across the railroad track, out onto the prairie. Johnson's Bayou and Sabine Pass were overwashed by a storm surge of up to 7 feet, which extended 20 miles inland. A woman crossed Sabine Lake on a feather mattress during and after the storm. She was without food for 40 hours. In all, between 175 and 200 lives were lost. See See Louisiana Hurricane History for what the storm did in that state.
October 16th, 1912: Winds of 55 mph howled through Brownsville as a hurricane made landfall between there and Corpus Christi. Heavy rain was accompanied with the storm. The steamship Nicaragua was wrecked 80 miles down Padre Island. Two of the ship's boilers can still be seen there.
October 3rd-4th, 1949: This system formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and crossed into the Gulf just west of Vera Cruz. Freeport was struck by a strong hurricane. Winds were estimated at 135 mph, five miles to their west. The pressure fell to 28.88". Harrisburg's tide rose to 11.4 feet above M.S.L.. Moderate erosion damaged streets in Galveston and destroyed a wooden fishing pier. The South Jetty lighthouse was slightly damaged. Only 2 people died and $6.7 million in damage occurred, mostly to crops.
October 4th, 1950 (How): Hurricane How hit the Mexican coast 150 miles south of Brownsville. Damage was reported as far north as Port Aransas. Corpus Christi had gusts to 39 mph. Tides rose to 4' at Padre Island. Sections of highway on North Padre Island at Gulf Park were washed away.
1989: Chantal hit High Island on August 1st. It was an unusual storm since the strongest winds were on the western semicircle. Jerry crossed the east end of Galveston Island on
October 15/16th. In scope and power, Tropical Storm Allison stole the show early in the season, producing over 30 inches of rain and severe flooding in extreme Southeast Texas around the 26th of June. Damage from Allison totaled $500 million, also putting it on the list of the US' most damaging storms. Chantal and Jerry combined had damages totaling $170 million. Eleven died during Allison, 13 during Chantal, and 3 during Jerry.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.php
If that turns out to be the case........