Weather Forecasting, Farming and Fishing

[Frank2]

Weather forecasting is very much like farming and fishing - sometimes, it isn't what the computer says, but, what the person knows in their heart to be true...

It sometimes seems that weather forecasting has become too dependent on the computer - the initial Felix intensity forecast was entirely wrong, and, as in 99L, the same seems to be true here - an adjustment needs to be made when it comes to weather forecasting, since a great of deal of it is also based on what the person sees with their heart and mind - as well as their eyes...

I was taught that very thing when learning how to take a weather observation - what a person sees and understands when determining sky condition, is just as important as what the instruments are saying - a person cannot sit in a windowless room and take a true weather observation, based solely on instruments, and say that they acutally did see the current condition of the sky...

Some forget that a weather forecaster cannot just look at a computer screen, and, say that this is what the weather will do - again, it's a lot like farming and fishing - a farmer cannot plant and rely solely on a program to tell him if the yield will be good, just as a fisherman cannot remain inside his ship to look for a sole radar blip to tell him if it's time to cast his nets, without risking a costly mistake - all of these vocations take a "hands on" approach to do things successfully...

Unfortunately, technology seems to be letting many believe that "the human element" is no longer needed - but it always was, and, still is...

[Downdraft]

I totally agree Frank. There's something to be said for sitting in front of a map and plotting your own isobars. What drives me crazy is this total reliance on the models now as if they are the end all in forecasting. A lot of forecasts over the years would have been a lot more accurate if the "weather man" had had a window in in office instead of a computer.

[Frank2]

So true - there is that time (soon, actually), when the Miami NWS determines the actual day that the rainy season ends (unfortunately, we didn't have much of one this year), and, when the South Florida Fall season begins, but, a number of us in the local bicycle club found that we could often tell for ourselves, while out in the bean fields north of Homestead on some cool October morning, and, could somehow come to recognize, that, yes, that was the first day of Fall, because both the air and land had a certain way about it, whether it be due to the angle of the sun, or, a much lower dew point, or, the activity of birds and insects, or, the blooming of certain winter vegetation...

As the Native Americans learned, it really takes a person to become a part of the Earth, in a sense, to really feel the pulse of the land, sea and sky, and, that really makes a difference, since that is something that cannot come from a book, or a computer, but, comes from inside each person...

Frank