TD 8 stirs the pot

[MiamiensisWx]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070912/oil_prices.html?v=21

Prices were also being supported by worries a tropical depression that formed in the western Atlantic on Wednesday will become a hurricane and hit critical Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure.

"The National Hurricane Center says there's a good chance that could get into the Gulf," Ritterbusch said.

That's a false statement. I can't believe someone interviewed an energy investor and presented this information to the general public. Do they check their sources and facts? Don't bring politics here, but I think this is an example of poor reporting. I don't think this portion (highlighted in bold) should have been published, in my opinion. It presents an opinion that is not supported by facts, data, or the NHC's statements.

[Cryomaniac]

Well the oil price has rose by $1.56 / Barrel today, mostly because of supply issues, and this isn't going to help matters at all.

[x-y-no]

Sad to say, but that's the state of "journalism" today. Most "reporters" don't have a clue about how their job is really supposed to be done. They think their only responsibility is to write down whatever somebody says and leave it at that.

[Frank2]

That's one reason why I often hope that a tropical system doesn't turn out the way some forecast - it was very different 40 or 45 years ago, when the Gulf coast was largely rural, and, gas was inexpensive (even in those days)...

Today, one event (including a hurricane in a critical area) can change everything, as happened 2 years ago...

As for the media being irresponsbile - well, I've said my piece in earlier posts, so, to say it again would be redundant, except to say that those in media need to change their ways - quickly...

Freedom of speech also means being responsibile when thinking of what to say - instead of believing that anyone can say whatever comes to mind...

[MiamiensisWx]

That's one reason why I often hope that a tropical system doesn't turn out the way some forecast - it was very different 40 or 45 years ago, when the Gulf coast was largely rural, and, gas was inexpensive (even in those days)...

Today, one event (including rumors indicating a hurricane in a critical area) can change everything...

I fixed your post. It is very true in our current geopolitical climate.

[Frank2]

No problem - I've said that myself, in previous posts...

So far, TD 8 is fairly weak - let's hope it stays that way...

[wobblehead]

The National Hurricane Center says there's a good chance that could get into the Gulf," Ritterbusch said.

"That's a false statement."

How is it known the NHC statement is false?

[Cryomaniac]

The National Hurricane Center says there's a good chance that could get into the Gulf," Ritterbusch said.

"That's a false statement."

How is it known the NHC statement is false?

He was saying that the NHC never said those words, not that it wont get to the gulf.

[wobblehead]

"He was saying that the NHC never said those words, not that it wont get to the gulf."

I understand this. My question is how is it known the NHC never made the statement? Understand my question is not deragotory.

[Cryomaniac]

Ok, I get it now, the wording was a little odd, sorry.

[x-y-no]

"
I understand this. My question is how is it known the NHC never made the statement? Understand my question is not deragotory.

Well for one thing, given the number of members of this site who carefully read everything issued by the NHC, you can be sure that a comment of that sort would have been extensively discussed here.

Second, the NHC never, ever speculates about where systems are going to be that far out.

[Dean4Storms]

Who's to say, maybe someone at the NHC has stock in the oil futures market?

[Cryomaniac]

Who's to say, maybe someone at the NHC has stock in the oil futures market?

Of course it's possible, but I'm not sure their bosses would be too happy

[Category 5]

This sounds like made up news.

[Honeyko]

I can't believe someone interviewed an energy investor and presented this information to the general public. Do they check their sources and facts?

Er, why is that hard to believe, given the track-record of the presstitutes over the last few decades? Just last night, a blog I was reading entered the howler "Reuters Stenography Service LLC" into the lexicon. Hilarious.

Concerning TD8 itself, I'm a little skeptical of this supposedly killer shear that's allegedly going to tear the meat from the bones. It's still relatively early in September, the shear doesn't look that vicious on WV and doesn't appear to be a very deep layer event. Today, the storm crossed over a slightly cooler patch of SSTs in conjunction with diurnal minima, and lost most of its convection. But nearing sunset, it's past the cool patch, and is now bursting:



The west/southwesterly shear appears confined to the 35K-40K zone, while the overshooting anvil tops of TD8 near sunset are spreading out in all directions.

[wobblehead]

Ok, I get it now, the wording was a little odd, sorry.

No problem.
My question was intended to lead us into a discussion about the NHC and what role it might play in advising private industry i.e. U.S. oil industry. The NHC issues public advisories which are conservative due to its responsibilty to the public. The article by Ritterbusch & Associates leads me to believe a private conversation was held with the NHC and oil industry interest.
We all are aware the oil industry operational status has a tremendous economic impact on our economy. Does the NHC have "behind the scenes" consultation with large private industry? Three refineries were shut down last night for lack of power due to Humberto.