Bill???

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 12:53 pm

Will the system in the carib become bill???

JetMaxx · #2 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:00 pm

I voted YES....even though I'm not sure if it will ever be named or not....

Hey, it's a slow Saturday! :lol:

#3 Postby **bfez1** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:06 pm

I voted yes, just a gut feeling. :roll:

I bet that "just a gut feeling" will rub some wrong the way!
Oh well!!!

Toni - 574 · #4 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:09 pm

Yes!!! 94L has a 75% chance it will graduate to Bill on June 29th

#5 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:09 pm

Not -removed-, but I did vote yes. I would probably have voted for unsure if that had been an option, but feel this will be a rain threat and not as much a wind maker wherever it makes landfall, assuming it develops.

mamadude · #6 Postby **mamadude** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:12 pm

I vote no because I have no Idea, I only vote yes on a sure thing..HEHE

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:20 pm

My answer is a conditional yes. That is, if it happens then I voted yes! :lol:

The longer this thing sits out there giving the GOM a chance to settle down, which it is starting to do, the better the chances become for Bill to be born.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:30 pm

I voted yes because it will have good conditions once the low emerges into the GOM.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:43 pm

I vote NO!

The reason being, I think that we already have a depression in the Atlantic near 7N/36W today. There's a quite clear low-level circulation on visible imagery and QuickScat winds show 30kts.

Now, the problem comes in that the NHC often ignores depressions for days in the mid Atlantic. So will they upgrade this depression this afternoon to TD 3 officially? If they just sit on their hands for 2 days then the Gulf system would be named first. If they acknowledge that TD 3 has already formed in the mid Atlantic, then the Gulf system would be Claudette if it develops.

#10 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:48 pm

The chances look better with each new sat photo. You don't have to look too hard to see that something's brewing. Boom. Probably Bill.

Steve

jabber · #11 Postby **jabber** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 3:43 pm

I agree, there is clearly a LLC right now. But its in the middle of nowhere so the NHC will wait. Its also so far south I think they have a hard time believing it will make it.

wxman57 wrote:I vote NO!

The reason being, I think that we already have a depression in the Atlantic near 7N/36W today. There's a quite clear low-level circulation on visible imagery and QuickScat winds show 30kts.

Now, the problem comes in that the NHC often ignores depressions for days in the mid Atlantic. So will they upgrade this depression this afternoon to TD 3 officially? If they just sit on their hands for 2 days then the Gulf system would be named first. If they acknowledge that TD 3 has already formed in the mid Atlantic, then the Gulf system would be Claudette if it develops.

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 4:15 pm

Nope... We'll see... Just a gut feeling.

Amanzi · #13 Postby **Amanzi** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 4:32 pm

I voted yes, I do think it will develop. Given the persistance of this area.

I agree with you wx247 that even if it does develop I think it will be mainly a big rainmaker and not a wind maker.

Glad to see no wimpy people have voted :lol:

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:08 pm

The question wasn't will it develop, but will it be named Bill. Clearly, the system near 9N/37W has a pertty good low-level circulation and may already be TD 3. Therfore, even if the Gulf system develops it wouldn't be Bill, it would be TD 4 and then Claudette. HOWEVER, the NHC is ignoring it because it is not near any land area. But if the low east of the Caribbean develops large spiral bands tomorrow on visible imagery then the NHC may not ignore it any more.

It's a toss-up. NHC is looking the other way as far as the strongest disturbance now, so they'll probably ignore it until the Gulf system develops.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:The question wasn't will it develop, but will it be named Bill. Clearly, the system near 9N/37W has a pertty good low-level circulation and may already be TD 3. Therfore, even if the Gulf system develops it wouldn't be Bill, it would be TD 4 and then Claudette. HOWEVER, the NHC is ignoring it because it is not near any land area. But if the low east of the Caribbean develops large spiral bands tomorrow on visible imagery then the NHC may not ignore it any more.

It's a toss-up. NHC is looking the other way as far as the strongest disturbance now, so they'll probably ignore it until the Gulf system develops.

I have to agree here ... the Atlantic system is continuing to look healthy and banding features have appeared today already. The 8:05 pm NHC discussion only mentions that it looks better organized with a 1012 mb low ... My 5:00 pm outlook here on Storm2k highlights the area ...

Latest QuikScat indicated a definite closed low ...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... _full.html
Latest WV loop (hope this works) indicates decent outflow over the system.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... G8wvL.html

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:13 pm

I have to agree with you wxman57 about not classifying that wave because it looks better than the Yucatan disturbance and theywill as you said classify first the Yucatan and then the atlantic one later.

chadtm80 · #17 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:25 pm

I also agree... I was discussing this with SF earlier.... Looks to be TD already IMO... but you are right.. They will ignore it... at least for another day or so

ColdFront77 · #18 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 11:32 pm

They obviously won't ignore it in terms of not watching to see what it does in the coming hours... apparently will ignore it if it stays about the same or get more ragged.

Bill???

Will the system in the carib become bill???

Bill???

I Vote NO! --- It'll Be Claudette

Re: I Vote NO! --- It'll Be Claudette

The Question..

Re: The Question..

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