Center has reformed?

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ColdFront77

Center has reformed?

#1 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 29, 2003 3:54 am

Based on the 3:45 AM EDT IR satellite image, it appears that a surface low pressure has reformed near
22.5ºN 89.0ºW or approximately 112 miles north-northeast of Merida, Mexico.


Here is the latest IR image of the system:

Image
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wxman57
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Only Problem

#2 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 29, 2003 4:50 am

The only problem with that is there isn't a center at all. There was no circulation evident at the surface yesterday, and it isn't up north now. What you're seeing is the result of a strong upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche driving most of the convection rapidly northward overnight. In effect, the disturbance is being ripped apart by wind shear. The question now is whether or not the wave will survive long enough for the wind shear to decrease. No TD today.
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 29, 2003 7:06 am

There is a MLC near 91W but dry air is being entrained into the center. The upper low must move farther west.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 29, 2003 1:44 pm

It looks like where I saw the center reforming this morning is easily possible... the system has moved from that point to where it is now in 10 3/4 to 11 hours.
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