I think the eastward shift of the center and the apparent initial motion is significant. Maybe the globals haven't had such a bad handle on Bill after all...
http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC03.htm
MW
Bill Forecast #1
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Bill Forecast #1
0 likes
Very good forecast and I agree completely with it. 
I'll be looking forward to further updates!-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Great post Mike.
Where I'd disagree is that I'm not sure Bill doesn't deepen tonight. It may pulse a couple of times, but the outflow is getting better as is Bill's presentation. Pressure isn't very low here in New Orleans (30.02 at last check). I think that changes as the ridging coming up over top of the system starts allowing feedback into a true tropical system. I could be wrong (and I voted it was an STS on Stormsfury's poll), but take a look at the visible and IR on TNRCC.
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/ai ... st.ir.jpeg
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/ai ... t.vis.jpeg
In the visible, you can really see some of the highest cloudtops in the bands to the NE and East of where I think the center of circulation is (probably near where you have the MLC in the intro post). Considering little spins and vortexes associated and coming out from Bill the past few days, I'd look for a new center closer in to the convection with more of a NNW then N component.
I called E Cameron or W Vermillion Parish or Inter(ra)coastal City for landfall. It may actually be in closer to Iberville or St. Mary Parishes (as you noted in your post, Central LA).
Post landfall, I'm still not sure what's going to happen. I've been with the ETA/ECMWF solution since Wed. Both still have a storm meandering around the south for a couple of days. The ECMWF has backed off on sitting it on the upper texas coast, but does show a stall in Central LA.
It's getting dark here again. We've had 2 bands so far and a thunderstorm to our east. All is well in The Big Easy. We're drinking Abitas and having a good time!
Steve
Where I'd disagree is that I'm not sure Bill doesn't deepen tonight. It may pulse a couple of times, but the outflow is getting better as is Bill's presentation. Pressure isn't very low here in New Orleans (30.02 at last check). I think that changes as the ridging coming up over top of the system starts allowing feedback into a true tropical system. I could be wrong (and I voted it was an STS on Stormsfury's poll), but take a look at the visible and IR on TNRCC.
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/ai ... st.ir.jpeg
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/ai ... t.vis.jpeg
In the visible, you can really see some of the highest cloudtops in the bands to the NE and East of where I think the center of circulation is (probably near where you have the MLC in the intro post). Considering little spins and vortexes associated and coming out from Bill the past few days, I'd look for a new center closer in to the convection with more of a NNW then N component.
I called E Cameron or W Vermillion Parish or Inter(ra)coastal City for landfall. It may actually be in closer to Iberville or St. Mary Parishes (as you noted in your post, Central LA).
Post landfall, I'm still not sure what's going to happen. I've been with the ETA/ECMWF solution since Wed. Both still have a storm meandering around the south for a couple of days. The ECMWF has backed off on sitting it on the upper texas coast, but does show a stall in Central LA.
It's getting dark here again. We've had 2 bands so far and a thunderstorm to our east. All is well in The Big Easy. We're drinking Abitas and having a good time!
Steve
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests