11 PM Discussion from TPC why Bill (may) get to hurricane

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt3.html

Warm waters ahead and less shear prior to landfall they say will be the keys for Bill to get hurricane status briefly.

Do any of you agree with this discussion? I say it will be a close call but it will be a strong storm at landfall 65-70 mph.

[Stormsfury]

IMO, the NHC is being a little bit bullish about upgrading to hurricane watches (but I would agree better safe than sorry though) ... the window is running out, the system is actually speeding up now elongating NW/SE based on latest IR satellite imagery ..

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... irfl1.html

Furthermore, the residual side effects from baroclinic effects.
The environment continues to slowly improve, but IMO, it's too close to land to strengthen into hurricane status ...

[chadtm80]

I tend to agree with you here as well SF... But I defianatly cant say it wont happen.. Will be close

[MWatkins]

There isn't much difference between a 60 knot TS and a 65 knot hurricane...and to be honest it's better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.

My biggest concern remains that upper low to the southwest. If it sinks further to the south than forecast...it could create a ton of mass-sink and a very favorable outflow channel. In that case...a Cat 2 wouldn't be out of the question...

MW

[Steve]

I agree SF. Earlier this week, a strong (55-60k) tropical storm looked like the worst case scenario. If Bill was moving slower, I'd suspect he'd have a real shot at Cat-1. I'm looking for the center to tighten up a bit as it gets starts feeding off that 86 degree water heat (energy) near the coast to make a run for 60k.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

There's one fly in the ointment ... diffleunce shear and baroclinic effects and if the center can tuck under the convection, well, then my 60 mph forecast can get thrown right out the window, cause they'll likely be a rapid burst ... The system has been speeding up (14 mph up from 12 mph) ... in which the system isn't ready yet to slow down ... the window is closing fast ...

Again, I agree the better safe than sorry rule needs to apply ... after all, it is the responsibility of NHC to keep people prepared and conditions are certainly possible for a sudden intensification with high SST's, and an improving environment around the system ...

Latest Recon data, indicate another center has developed a little closer to the convection, though the system still isn't exactly "stacked" up well, it continues to try ...

[vbhoutex]

I think the NHC may be right on this time. I just picked up a bouy gust to 54 mph! Sustained was just below TS strength. If that outflow to the S or SW sets up in time, I have to agree with Mike-it's a definite for CAT1 just prior to landfall. Don't think the CAT2 has a chance due to the fact that Bill now appears to be jogging for the coast instead of walking. If he slows again and the southern semicircle outflow sets up then we could be talking at least a strong CAT1 imo. As always time will tell. Hope everyone in LA, MS, AL have their piroques ready!! He's a wetter!!

[JetMaxx]

I am concerned....Audrey deepened explosively just before landfall in 1957.....likely as a result of 1) warmer sst's of the shallow waters in the Continental Shelf just offshore the SW Louisiana coast and 2) increased outflow as hurricane neared land.

While I'm not expecting a major hurricane at landfall, there is certainly enough ocean heat content in this storm's path and the possibility (as MWatkins) alluded of rapid deepening just before landfall...to warrant a hurricane watch.

Far better to issue a hurricane watch for a 65-70 mph T.S. than only a T.S warning for a suddenly 85-90 mph hurricane. We all remember the explosive deepening of hurricane Opal, and only the fact it was October (i.e.- stronger shear and cooler sst's within 100 mi of the coast) likely prevented a hurricane catastrophe in the Florida Panhandle (as bad as it was, a 140-150 mph cat-4 would have been far worse!).

I give forecaster Stewart and the National Hurricane Center kudos (except I'd be more at ease if that hurricane watch was posted as far east as Grand Isle).

PW

[Andrew92]

I have to agree that hurricane watches made were the right call. I still think Bill won't be a hurricane at landfall, though it will be darn close I think (like 65-70 mph). We'll see though. I'm giving it about a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane.

-Andrew92

[ColdFront77]

I agree as well... Hurricane Watches make sense with the amount of warm water and there still is enough water left for the storm to move over.

It is still interesting to watch the movement of this system to see what it really will do. There are a lot of variables still with this system... especially the surface cold front over northern Oklahoma is 775 to 800 miles northwest of the center of Tropical Storm Bill. -- of course the models are indicating this with the sharp turn to the right.

[JetMaxx]

Winds at the mid-Gulf buoy (near 26 N & 90 W) continue to increase....gusts to near 60 mph at 1 a.m. CDT. Also, Bill continues to look stronger on the nighttime IR loop.

IMHO if Bill isn't a hurricane at landfall, he's gonna be very, very close.

PW