Bill looking better
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Derek Ortt
Bill looking better
The 2 things holding it back are the dry air to the south and no well defined center. However, Bill continues to slowly organize and could easily make landfall as a strong tropical storm in the same areas affected by Isidore and Lili last year
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Will be keeping a very close eye on this system over the next few days.-
wxman57
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Hmmm
I'm not so sure about Bill looking better now. I wonder why the recon can't close off a well-defined center? Has anyone seen a vortex message? It's certainly not clear whether Bill is more than a tropical wave on satellite imagery. I think the NHC really jumped the gun on this one. Sure there are 35kt winds in those squalls, but those 35+kt winds have been there in those squalls for days.
I did plot the recon reports and there was one wind from 330 deg at 10kts NNW of where they had put the center. But all I'm finding is about 10kt winds NW-W-SW-S of the center. The only significant wind is east of the center through the squalls (20-30kts).
There are a couple of possibilities. Bill may be just a tropical wave, or at most a broad, elongated weak low pressure area without a single clear center. Or Bill's center may be hidden by the cirrus between 24N/25N and moving more quickly to the NW-NNW. Pressures at the two southernmost buoys which had been rising have now fallen a bit. This may support the second possibility.
That upper-level low still looks very strong just SW of Bill's proposed center, so shear is quite high across the storm. There are no indications of decreasing shear.
I await the first vortex message, indicating the plane has indeed closed off a center.
I did plot the recon reports and there was one wind from 330 deg at 10kts NNW of where they had put the center. But all I'm finding is about 10kt winds NW-W-SW-S of the center. The only significant wind is east of the center through the squalls (20-30kts).
There are a couple of possibilities. Bill may be just a tropical wave, or at most a broad, elongated weak low pressure area without a single clear center. Or Bill's center may be hidden by the cirrus between 24N/25N and moving more quickly to the NW-NNW. Pressures at the two southernmost buoys which had been rising have now fallen a bit. This may support the second possibility.
That upper-level low still looks very strong just SW of Bill's proposed center, so shear is quite high across the storm. There are no indications of decreasing shear.
I await the first vortex message, indicating the plane has indeed closed off a center.
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rainstorm
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wx247
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Just an amateur here, but the outflow seems to be looking better, especially north and east. The SW side seems to still be stuggling.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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