BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 91.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032003
2100Z SUN JUN 29 2003
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 91.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 91.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 90.9W
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.4N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.0N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 91.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TURNING THE STORM NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHIFTS THE TRACKS EASTWARD ABOUT 100 N MI FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO SHIFTING THE INITIAL POSITION EASTWARD. THIS ALSO REQUIRES AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE WATCH AREA WHICH WILL ALSO BE CHANGED TO A WARNING.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB...NOT VERY LOW...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE STORM IS LARGE. A 15Z SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS ABOUT 80 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ...ALONG WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 40 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 62 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. IN CONTRAST NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING. ALSO THE PRESENT DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE 55 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.8N 91.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 26.4N 91.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 28.5N 92.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 30.5N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1800Z 33.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z...INLAND
TROPICAL STORM BILL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.5N 92.5W 37 X 1 X 38 PENSACOLA FL X X 7 7 14
30.5N 92.0W 12 16 1 X 29 MOBILE AL X 3 9 5 17
31.5N 90.5W 1 14 5 2 22 GULFPORT MS X 8 7 4 19
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 BURAS LA 4 11 3 1 19
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 6 13 3 1 23
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA 18 12 X 1 31
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 PORT ARTHUR TX 17 9 1 X 27
SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX 14 6 X X 20
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX 8 5 1 X 14
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX 2 1 1 X 4
FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 7 8
VENICE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 7 12
TAMPA FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W 5 5 3 2 15
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W 33 X 1 X 34
ST MARKS FL X X X 9 9 GULF 28N 93W 40 X X X 40
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 8 9 GULF 28N 95W 13 2 1 X 16
PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 9 11 GULF 27N 96W 2 X 1 X 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE
C FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE
D FROM 1PM TUE TO 1PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS POSTED...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE PARISHES THAT BORDER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE LOUISIANA
PARISHES OF ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...
IBERVILLE...JEFFERSON...LAFOURCHE... LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS... PLAQUEMINES...ST. BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...AND ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA... TERREBONNE...WEST BATON ROUGE.
AND THE MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OF HANCOCK...HARRISON..AND JACKSON.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION WAS ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY. BILL WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...STORM SURGE INFORMATION...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY A HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES ASHORE.
RESIDENTS IN COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ALONG LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...SHOULD PREPARE FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...WIND...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...EXTEND UP TO 175 EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD START SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY AROUND DAYBREAK...AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY.
...RAINFALL...
SIGNIFICANT SQUALLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED...AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
...PRECAUTIONARY ACTION....
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.
RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL LOUISIANA...
ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING. BE READY TO MOVE TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE WATER FLOODS EVACUATION ROUTES.
RESIDENTS OF INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI LIVING NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...BAYOUS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SECURE LIGHT WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CAN...BEFORE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE AREA OFFICE ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BILL AROUND 10:00 PM THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TROPICAL STORM BILL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO CAMERON...CALCASIEU...BEAUREGARD...JEFF
DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...ALLEN...EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...
VERNON...RAPIDES...AND AVOYELLES PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS...JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA AND ST MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS (AT LEAST 39 MPH) ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY...OR 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON OR 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING TIDES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALSO INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TIDES TO RISE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. TIDE AND STORM SURGE COULD BE HIGHER BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE STORM.
HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MONDAY TUESDAY
SABINE PASS 640 AM 719 AM
CAMERON 526 AM 605 AM
VERMILION BAY 708 AM 747 AM
...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 35 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ABOVE 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SQUALLS...MAINLY EAST OF WHITE LAKE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE CENTER LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES.
...RAINFALL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND OVER LAND AREAS MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM TRACKS. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST MAY RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
...RIVERS...
RUN-OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU...VERMILION AND LOWER RED RIVER BASINS...AS WELL AS...BAYOU NEZPIQUE AND THE WHISKEY CHITTO CREEK.
...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM.
FOR MORE HURRICANE INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH
FLOOD WATCH
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
POINTE COUPEE...WEST FELICIANA...EAST FELICIANA...SAINT
HELENA...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...IBERVILLE...WEST
BATON ROUGE...EAST BATON ROUGE...LIVINGSTON...SAINT
TAMMANY...ASCENSION...SAINT JOHN THE BAPTIST...
ASSUMPTION...SAINT JAMES...SAINT CHARLES...TERREBONNE...
LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...AND ORLEANS PARISHES.
IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...
WILKINSON...AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...PEARL RIVER...HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP GENERATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA TIDAL LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TOWARD EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES NORTH...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH MANY AREAS STILL SATURATED FROM RAINS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF FLOODING.
REMEMBER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR WARNINGS.
FLOOD WATCH
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
...PARISHES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE...ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES... BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...EVANGELINE...JEFF DAVIS...
IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...RAPIDES...SAINT LANDRY... SAINT MARY...UPPER SAINT MARTIN...VERMILION AND VERNON...
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER TRACKS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM.
REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. CHECK OVER YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS FLOOD THREAT.
FLOOD WATCH
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
THIS FLOOD WATCH IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM MANY AND
NATCHITOCHES TO MONROE LOUISIANA.
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BILL IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BASED ON THE STORMS EXPECTED TRACK AND SPEED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM...OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING THREATENS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE THE SPEED AND TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED...AND OR EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OR EVEN DEEP EAST TEXAS ON MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL RADIO STATION OR CABLE SUBSCRIBER FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM BILL AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE FOUR STATE REGION.
FLOOD WATCH
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FOR SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS WATCH AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BASTROP
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO FOREST...TO MERIDIAN LINE. SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE...
IN LOUISIANA...BASTROP...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...TALLULAH... ST. JOSEPH...HARRISONBURG...AND VIDALIA.
IN MISSISSIPPI...JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA...MERIDIAN...
HATTIESBURG...VICKSBURG... NATCHEZ...BROOKHAVEN...LAUREL...AND YAZOO CITY.
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO LOUISIANA BY MONDAY NIGHT. AN EXTREMELY MOIST...TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORM BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
WITH THE EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR TWO. WHILE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MEAN THAT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS...DITCHES...AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS CLOSELY...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD WATER LEVELS RISE OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS.
FLOOD WATCH
BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
BALDWIN...MOBILE...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
TROPICAL STORM BILL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TOWARD SOUTH LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MONDAY.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. FORECASTERS EXPECT AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WHILE THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARD LOUISIANA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IF BILL SHOULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE HEAVIER RAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF BILL COULD DEVELOP TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN TOTALS THAN ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR THAT AREA.
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
PARENTS SHOULD NOT LET CHILDREN PLAY IN OR NEAR FAST FLOWING STREAMS OF DRAINAGE CULVERTS. BE CAREFUL WHEN WALKING NEAR THE EDGE OF FAST FLOWING STREAMS AS THE EDGE MAY COLLAPSE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
FLOOD WATCH
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS POSTED...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE PARISHES THAT BORDER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE LOUISIANA PARISHES OF ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...
IBERVILLE...JEFFERSON...LAFOURCHE... LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS... PLAQUEMINES...ST. BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...AND ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA... TERREBONNE...WEST BATON ROUGE.
AND THE MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OF HANCOCK...HARRISON..AND JACKSON.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION WAS ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY. BILL WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...STORM SURGE INFORMATION...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY A HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES ASHORE.
RESIDENTS IN COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ALONG LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...SHOULD PREPARE FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...WIND...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER THAN 39 MPH...EXTEND UP TO 175 EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD START SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY AROUND DAYBREAK...AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY.
...RAINFALL...
SIGNIFICANT SQUALLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED...AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
...PRECAUTIONARY ACTION....
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.
RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING. BE READY TO MOVE TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE WATER FLOODS EVACUATION ROUTES.
RESIDENTS OF INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI LIVING NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...BAYOUS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SECURE LIGHT WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CAN...BEFORE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE AREA OFFICE ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BILL AROUND 10:00 PM THIS EVENING.
FLOOD STATEMENT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
925 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR MORGAN CITY
ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AT MORGAN CITY THE STAGE WAS 4.4 FEET AT 7 AM SUNDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 4 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RIVER STAGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINOR FLUCUATIONS DUE TO WIND AND TIDES. VESSEL TRAFFIC WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER RIVER CURRENT AND VESSEL TRAFFIC SAFETY RULES WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED BY THE U.S. COAST GUARD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA OUT 20 NM-
PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA OUT 20 NM-
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS BECOMING CHOPPY TO ROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIDES RISING ABOVE NORMAL LATE.
.MONDAY...SOUTH WIND BECOMING 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS BUILDING...6 TO 8 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS BECOMING ROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WIND BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING...5 TO 7 FEET LATE. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS CHOPPY TO ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SUBSIDING...2 TO 4 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BAY WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA 20-60 NM OUT-
PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA 20-60 NM OUT-
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS BUILDING...4 TO 6 FEET. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...SOUTH WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS
BUILDING...10 TO 12 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WIND BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING..6 TO 8 FEET LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Comprehensive Bill Info Package #1 (warning: HUGE posts)
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