000
ABNT20 KNHC 051506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.
2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
3. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
4. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.
5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
6. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
