Whoo-Hooo! Another swirl sin ropas in Gulf

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look, West-Northwest of tip of Cuba.


Was this the nekkid swirl that spun way from former 92L 3 or 4 days ago? Were the models completely right, except 20 or 50 mb too strong?

[HouTXmetro]

I don't really see it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't really see it.

Maybe swirl is too strong a word. A turning, WNW of Western tip of Cuba.

About 24ºN and 86.5ºW

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12Z NAM shows a turning (not a closed low) in the 850 mb levels with this does it does close off and drift SW through BOC.


Yes, I know, is the NAM. But I'll have to wait an hour to see if the 12Z CMC turns this into a Category 5 hurricane it'll probably aim at New Orleans.

[lrak]

is this the same vortex that crossed Cuba last night? If it is watch out, because that little vortex last night was very well organized little system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The swirl, or more accurately, the turning in the low clouds along what appears a Westward moving convergence line, seems to have faded significantly.


But I shall remain ever vigilant, as NAM did seem to develop something with it.


Laugh all you want at the NAM, but it was the earliest and most consistent predicting Humberto. Of course, it helps to be like the NAM and CMC in developing every thunderstorm into a cyclone, in beating the competition.

[Ed Mahmoud]

is this the same vortex that crossed Cuba last night? If it is watch out, because that little vortex last night was very well organized little system.

Maybe, it is a bit North of due West of the tip of Cuba, and about due North of the NE point of the Yucatan. If you look close and use your imagination, there is still a little turn in there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

is this the same vortex that crossed Cuba last night? If it is watch out, because that little vortex last night was very well organized little system.

Maybe, it is a bit North of due West of the tip of Cuba, and about due North of the NE point of the Yucatan. If you look close and use your imagination, there is still a little turn in there.

Edit to point out link in above sentence between North and Yucatan. I wish the code could be modified to add an underline automatically to links, as they don't stand out well.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


buoy's pressure is falling again, and the wind direction is now NW instead of NNW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


buoy's pressure is falling again, and the wind direction is now NW instead of NNW.

And there is a shower developing over the center of turning. I guess swirl implies a closed circulation, so I'll say turning.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


buoy's pressure is falling again, and the wind direction is now NW instead of NNW.

And there is a shower developing over the center of turning. I guess swirl implies a closed circulation, so I'll say turning.

it looks like this is the one to watch today , and the NAM has is skirting the N Yucatan coast then hooking right or left?

[xironman]

West winds and a dropping pressure at the buoy for sure.
------------------------------------------------
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 5.8 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
-----------------------------------------------
Looks great on the hi res sat http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=22&lon=-85.5&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis, will go just north of the Yucatan.
BTW: This is definitely the swirl that was in the Keys yesterday, I tracked it with SWIR.

[xironman]

Oh yeah, and BTW it looks like there will be an upper high and little shear in the gulf where it will be http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_024m.gif