Do seasons favor certain locations for landfalls?

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DanKellFla
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Do seasons favor certain locations for landfalls?

#1 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:00 pm

This year, the Yucatan seems to have a storm magnet. In 2004, is seemed that Florida had the magnet. Is this more than a coincedence? Do weather patterns set up for a season that favor landfalls in a certain place?
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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Do seasons favor certain locations for landfalls?

#2 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:51 pm

All I can say Dan is yep. They usually will explain; like this year the Bermuda High was stronger then usual. Pushing and shearing most systems. While allowing the ones that could develop to hit Mexico. The long explanation is usually done after the season is over. Bottom line is it's hard to tell what the real pattern will be before the season starts.
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AussieMark
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Re: Do seasons favor certain locations for landfalls?

#3 Postby AussieMark » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:00 am

1999 North Carolina was like a storm magnet
1998 had the central and eastern GOM in the cross hairs
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weatherwindow
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Re: Do seasons favor certain locations for landfalls?

#4 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

altho i cant locate the link...gray et al discussed the possibility of a psuedo-decadal cycle of landfall clustering. while each decade had exceptions, he identified five general patterns: east coast(north of fla), florida, gom, caribbean and "scatter"...1900-1919: gom, 1920-1930: fla, 1931-1940: scatter/caribbean, 1941-1950:fla, 1951-1960: east coast, 1961-1970:fla/gom, 1971-1980:gom, 1981-2000: caribbean/scattered, 2001-?: scattered(since we seem to have had a bit of everything)...please remember that none of this is etched in granite and exceptions abound, i believe he was simply trying to find some order in track chaos
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