Dr. Frank- inflated number of storms?

[HURAKAN]

You can disagree all you want, but if there is evidence that a system is a depression or storm, then the system has to be upgraded to meet its status. There's no question about that. You will always find scientists that disagree with each other, and in the hurricane tracking and forecasting business there's no exception. I would guess that even between the forecasters at the NHC there are disagreements in some situations i.e. Iván the 2nd, TD10/TD12. Nonetheless, we have very qualified scientists working at the NHC and I feel they do an excellent job with the technology available and the current understanding of hurricanes and the atmosphere.

If I were them I would read these critiscisms and then laugh, delete them, or throw them away.

[Jam151]

Andrea, Barry, Erin, Gabrielle, and Ingrid all had recon measurements that verified their (sub)tropical nature and gale force winds. Chantal had a TS-worthy satellite presentation and quality-control ship reports confirming gale force winds.

When recon and ship data are absent, storms are classified based upon satellite and QuikScat data (Jerry and Melissa). Granted they were short-lived, but with satellite agencies consensus of weak TS strength, QuikScat showing weak TS winds, and evident closed LLCs, why would one not upgrade?

Now there have been some systems in the past that probably did not deserve to be named (Grace 1997, Chris and Ernesto 2000, Grace 2003, Earl 2004, Gert 2005), but then there have also been some unrecorded systems that were probably TSs (see cyclone1's thread). So I agree there is some slight inconsistency.

[Jim Hughes]

This article doesn't surprise me at all. For a few years now, many of the respected meteorologists in the weather community that I work with (and I tend to agree with them) have mentioned that a few storms each year were not name-worthy.

This year seemed to be rather ridiculous.

I said this last year around some places and it never went over well. This is what happens when you have the fox watching the hen house. I specifically said just wait until a quiet season is forecasted. Then we'll see the exact opposite trend in calls happen. This is human instinct. Nobody likes to fail.

[Category 5]

They can't please everybody. If they don't upgrade them, then people complain and say they're out of line, it's a lose lose situation.

If it meets the requirements, upgrade it, simple, theres no room for bias.

[Cyclone1]

They can't please everybody. If they don't upgrade them, then people complain and say they're out of line, it's a lose lose situation.

If it meets the requirements, upgrade it, simple, theres no room for bias.

Well said.

[Frank2]

I'll still stand by yesterday's comments - if one or two forecast cycles had been let to pass (two is better), it's very likely that 3 or 4 of these weak systems would not have been named...

I know that's often not possible if the system is near a populated area (if the system is within a NWS CWA for example), but, two or three of these were over the open ocean, and, it would have been acceptable had a period of time passed before upgrading...

Perhaps Derek can answer this, but, does the NHC follow the Navy's (JTWC) protocol when upgrading systems? I know once a year we'd travel to HAFB for a joint Navy/NOAA/AF meeting on such matters (I was there for admin support), but, at present it does seem that they "are not on the same page" when it comes to upgrading a developing system...

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

I am not entirely sure of JTWC's protocol. However, it at times tends to be the decision of the forecaster on duty. Some forecasters are more inclined to upgrade than others

[Frank2]

Thanks, Derek - hard to believe, but, in the 1960's, the NHC would often have to wait several days before enough information was available to upgrade a Cape Verde system...

[Creak]

[Derek Ortt]

Here is the problem with waiting a long time to name it (and this scenario is exactly what happened with Alen in 1980)

NHC takes the conservative route for a fast moving CV depression. It takes a while to upgrade the cyclone to a storm. When he first recon reaches the storm, they find it is a major hurricane, giving the islands only 12 hours of warning.

That happened in Allen, wher ethe conservative route burned them. I could have seen this happening with Dean this year as well

Now, does this mean they should upgrade systems with marginal circulations, of course not. However, once there is a closed LLC and organized convection, the trigger then needs to be pulled and the necessary upgrades need to be made if the data warrants. One can always forecast dissipation (as some here love to accuse me of doing all of the time)

[CrazyC83]

Also, the numbers for historic seasons are almost certainly below the actual activity, mainly due to poor coverage in the open Atlantic, but also due to not yet having a good idea on what is a closed circulation and what the winds are when the data is not directly available...

[HurricaneRobert]

Which storms were not visited in recon missions? Was it just Jerry and Melissa? In past seasons (the days of Janet) they still would've been able to identify closed circulations near land.

Another question - if NHC monitored the west Pacific would there be more storms there?

[Ptarmigan]

Which storms were not visited in recon missions? Was it just Jerry and Melissa? In past seasons (the days of Janet) they still would've been able to identify closed circulations near land.

Another question - if NHC monitored the west Pacific would there be more storms there?

I wonder that too. I think there would be more storms in WPAC.

[DanKellFla]

They can't please everybody. If they don't upgrade them, then people complain and say they're out of line, it's a lose lose situation.

If it meets the requirements, upgrade it, simple, theres no room for bias.

Exactly. Personally, I think this is a case of comparing apples to oranges. Data collection has improves vastly in the past decade which makes it difficult to compare data from 20 years ago to today.

[Chris64]

I saw this on Hannity & Colmes the other night. I personally think this is a lot of uproar over nothing. I am glad that they are paying more attention to these borderline/subtropical systems - I think thats the responsible thing to do.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw this on Hannity & Colmes the other night. I personally think this is a lot of uproar over nothing. I am glad that they are paying more attention to these borderline/subtropical systems - I think thats the responsible thing to do.

Well said! Even borderline/subtropical systems can be dangerous. Also, welcome to Storm2K.

[MGC]

I've been harping on this for several seaons, the naming of questionable tropical cyclones. Many of ya'll here disagree and I respect your opinion. However, Dr Frank's opinion agrees with mine. I say follow the money. As an employee of the Federal Government, I know first hand what an agency will do to get more funding from Congress. I firmly believe that this is the case with the NHC and Dept of Commerce. More named systems equals more monies for research and operational needs.......MGC

[Chris64]

I saw this on Hannity & Colmes the other night. I personally think this is a lot of uproar over nothing. I am glad that they are paying more attention to these borderline/subtropical systems - I think thats the responsible thing to do.

Well said! Even borderline/subtropical systems can be dangerous. Also, welcome to Storm2K.

Thanks & thanks - been a longtime lurker - happy to be aboard .

[HurricaneRobert]

I can see why they used to ignore subtropical storms. It seems that all major hurricanes have had origins as tropical waves. Jerry never had a chance.

[Andrew92]

I can see why they used to ignore subtropical storms. It seems that all major hurricanes have had origins as tropical waves. Jerry never had a chance.

I can too, but then you have to look at storms like Allison. Allison was only a tropical storm for <24 hours. And most of its life after that, it was subtropical (per the NHC), not to mention "looking" subtropical in nature even when it was a tropical storm.

Of course, Allison is not famous because of its designation, but due to its impacts. But those impacts can be produced by a subtropical storm as well, so they cannot go ignored so quickly.

-Andrew92

[HURRICANELONNY]

The #'s mean nothing if you get hit by a major.