First Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2008 Forecast=13/7/3

[Squarethecircle]

If there were, they never materialized. It would most likely be easier to transition from the early stages of La Nina than from an actual episode.

[Ptarmigan]

maybe there was not the technical defintion of a la nina, but there were la nina conditions as early as late in the 2005 hurricane season

I saw another ENSO data for 2005 and it was a weak La Nina to Neutral. Later 2004 was a weak El Nino.

[Cyclenall]

Probably the main news item in this product is the annoucement that Dr. Gray has decided to step back (retire) from making the 2008 or future forecasts...

I thought he already retired from making these forecasts? I thought that happened last year? So it was just an announcement of his retirement that I was thinking of?

Personally, I think it is a bit high since I have the gut feeling a big El Nino is coming...I am sensing something like 1997.

My prediction: 9/5/2 in the Atlantic, 24/14/7 in the Pacific...

Didn't you say that sometime in late 2006?

You think we will go from moderate La Nina to moderate+ El Nino in 9 months?

Not just that but a strong one (1997) for sure if that is the prediction. I know though that you have a moderate+ but I think a bold statement like that ensures a strong El Nino call.

[Aquawind]

Well with Dr Gray out of the forecast I expect Phil to focus and modify his forecasting even more to his liking. They are both great guys and now we get to hear Dr Gray really let us know how he feels about GW.. We may hear more from Phil on this subject as well as I beleive they don't agree entirely on the subject. I hope we continue to hear from both of them for many years to come.

As far as the forecast is concerned..it's to early. I am more interested to see how the winter forecasts are going to turn out..pretty good cold and snow to start the season.

Click on the DLH..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

Glad Hurricane season is over and people like Phil Klotzbach are continuing to improve our understanding of the tropics!

[cycloneye]

Glad Hurricane season is over and people like Phil Klotzbach are continuing to improve our understanding of the tropics!

Well said Paul.

[Jim Hughes]

maybe there was not the technical defintion of a la nina, but there were la nina conditions as early as late in the 2005 hurricane season

Agreed. A quick look at the GLAAM tells you how things were behaving.