Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

Re:

#21 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Feb 08, 2008 8:43 pm

Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: We can just follow the other basins, you know...

I think your sarcasm meter is broken. Obviously, my satirical post referred to the Atlantic. I always look at other tropical cyclones during the Atlantic off season; thus I think it is redundant to focus on the Atlantic in February. I still think these types of topics seem silly. Additionally, the types of responses in this thread don't diminish when a TC finally forms in the Atlantic. Personally, I think this topic primes the board for more nonsense when the annual peak arrives in the basin.
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#22 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Feb 08, 2008 8:46 pm

:uarrow: It's common practice to face sarcasm with sarcasm.

Buy a new sarcasm meter TODAY!
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re:

#23 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:19 pm

Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: It's common practice to face sarcasm with sarcasm.

Buy a new sarcasm meter TODAY!


AWESOME POST!!!! :lol: :ggreen: That's Just Awesome!!!!
"buy a new sarcasm meter" LMAO!!!!

Miami- you know a lot about tropical meteorology as I can
tell from your excellent analysis of many aspects of it.
No offense Miami, but that is an awesome comeback!
0 likes   

CajunMama
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 10791
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:57 pm
Location: 30.22N, 92.05W Lafayette, LA

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#24 Postby CajunMama » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:47 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#25 Postby Chacor » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:11 am

:roflmao:
0 likes   

User avatar
punkyg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: sanford florida

#26 Postby punkyg » Sat Feb 09, 2008 8:33 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg
i know theres nothing out there, but i just want to show yall how pretty everything looks.
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

Re: Re:

#27 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Feb 09, 2008 9:34 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: It's common practice to face sarcasm with sarcasm.

Buy a new sarcasm meter TODAY!


AWESOME POST!!!! :lol: :ggreen: That's Just Awesome!!!!
"buy a new sarcasm meter" LMAO!!!!

Miami- you know a lot about tropical meteorology as I can
tell from your excellent analysis of many aspects of it.
No offense Miami, but that is an awesome comeback!


Thanky Mr. TB! :D
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#28 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:59 pm

You all got me!!! I wasn't offended.

...or I could be sarcastic. You probably noted my avatar. :wink:
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#29 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:13 pm

:uarrow: Or did we? DUN-DUN-DUNNNNN!
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#30 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:42 pm

Okay - stop complaining! I'll issue the first advisory.

Note for others: this is a test. Do not post any model data!!!

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
300 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

...FIRST SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST...

AT 300 PM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA.

AT 245 PM EST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE SABLE TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA...
AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF FLORIDA...AND FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
TO AMELIA ISLAND FLORIDA. A WATCH ALSO EXTENDS FROM CLEARWATER TO HOMOSASSA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...12 KM/H...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DEPRESSION GAINS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT...
EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER MIAMI

NNNN

Advisory courtesy of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al11/al112007.public.001.shtml?
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#31 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:44 pm

Image

It looks poorly organized, in my opinion.

This post is a poorly veiled attempt for sarcasm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#32 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:55 pm

Thanks Miami! Now I can imagine that this small
area of rain is a fake tropical area.
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#33 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:06 pm

Wow, this is more exciting than cheese!

Although that's not really saying to much, but still!
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2872
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#34 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:07 pm

I think I see an eye forming!

I think some of us are getting a little impatient. :wink:
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#35 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:09 pm

This is the most impressive storm I've seen since I saw a picture of Hondo like forty seconds ago!
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#36 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:34 pm

Here's my unofficial discussion:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
300 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOW
SUPPORT THE EXISTANCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WARRANTING THE CLASSIFICATION OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE.
A DROPSONDE REPORTED RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
LOCATED WITHIN SQUALLS EAST OF THE CENTER. ADJACENT LAND AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST
HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDETECTED.
BASED ON THE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS.
THIS INFORMATION MAY BE DUBIOUS...AS FLIGHT CREWS REPORTED WATER SKIERS ENJOYING THEIR DAY IN THE
CENTER.

WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF A BREAK FROM ATTENTION...I AM FORCED TO ACCEPT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT
AND UPGRADE THIS UNWORTHY LITTLE PEST. IN A NUTSHELL...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER APPEARS TO BE
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE UKMET BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ASHORE
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER. CURRENTLY...I AM GOING
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...EURO...AND THE MODEL CLUSTERS. AT THE TIME...THE DEPRESSION'S
CURRENT MOTION WILL BRING ITS CENTER...OR REMNANTS...OR WHATEVER...ASHORE OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

THE INTENSITY...OR LACK OF IT...REMAINS COMPLICATED. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WHICH
IS TYPICAL OF PRE-SEASON SYSTEMS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS...DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EPSILON...AND people I disagree with...ASIDE, I AM FORCED
TO FOLLOW THE MORE REALISTIC...OR DEPRESSING...SOLUTION. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODERATELY
CONSERVATIVE...BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL.

INITIAL: 09/1840Z 25.2N 83.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT: 10/0600Z 25.5N 81.0W 35 KTS (INLAND)
DISSIPATES OVER LAND

FORECASTER MIAMI
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#37 Postby hial2 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:23 pm

That's it...mark this day..the day we all lost our minds..
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#38 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:47 pm

February 9, 2008. The Storm2k Off-Season Massacre.


:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145839
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Only to look at something in Febuary (Not to be excited)

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:48 pm

Ok guys,it was a fun thread but I think it served its purpose already as the area that I saw yesterday in the ITCZ is poof. :)
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests