Tropical weather outlooks changing times

[CajunMama]

but is the main purpose of it for the amateurs or is it for the pros?

[HURAKAN]

but is the main purpose of it for the amateurs or is it for the pros?

I think it should be for everyone. Still, pros can make the same deductions that appear on the TWO, while most amateurs can't.

[CajunMama]

but the main purpose of it is for the pros. As senorpepr said the times will now match the schedule the professionals are on.

[wxman57]

I attended the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference the first week of March in Charleston, SC. This change was announced at the meeting. Reasoning was to have data in the hands of the media before the regular newscasts and before the daily CoB (Close of Business). So the TWOs were moved to 3 hours earlier. Makes a lot of sense to me.

Now if they'd just use the same line of reasoning with their advisories. Our clients on the east coast need the afternoon advisory by 3pm-4pm, not at 5pm (as the NHC issues it). So we have to issue our own track forecasts an hour ahead of the NHC during the day. I'd just as soon not have to spend 2-3 hours updating a track and focus more on the effects of the storm for those hours. NHC tracks are generally hard to beat (significantly). But I guess the advisory times are tied more to model guidance than public need. Seems like they could get the 12Z model guidance by noon and have that track out by 3pm, though.

[wxman57]

but is the main purpose of it for the amateurs or is it for the pros?

See my post above, the change was for the media/public. The only thing I ever use the TWO for is to get an idea if the NHC will be upgrading a disturbance in the near future. In that light, the earlier evening TWO will allow us to let our swing shift guy work earlier hours, as he won't have to wait until nearly 10pm CDT to see if the NHC is upgrading the disturbance we're watching.

[fci]

Doesn't the new timing pretty much match the Tropical Weather Discussion that has been coming out at 2 am/pm and 8 am/pm (or 2:05 and 8:05, I think) anyway?

To add, I use the TWO as a guide to whether any area is of any interest when I see a blob on the satellite. A mention in the TWO It is like the first step in the process before an Invest is declared followed by Depression and Named System.

[caneflyer]

I attended the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference the first week of March in Charleston, SC. This change was announced at the meeting. Reasoning was to have data in the hands of the media before the regular newscasts and before the daily CoB (Close of Business). So the TWOs were moved to 3 hours earlier. Makes a lot of sense to me.

Now if they'd just use the same line of reasoning with their advisories. Our clients on the east coast need the afternoon advisory by 3pm-4pm, not at 5pm (as the NHC issues it). So we have to issue our own track forecasts an hour ahead of the NHC during the day. I'd just as soon not have to spend 2-3 hours updating a track and focus more on the effects of the storm for those hours. NHC tracks are generally hard to beat (significantly). But I guess the advisory times are tied more to model guidance than public need. Seems like they could get the 12Z model guidance by noon and have that track out by 3pm, though.

The 12Z UKMET isn't ready by noon and the 12Z ECMWF isn't available till 18-19Z. UKMET is a key component of the consensus models and the ECMWF has come into greater use by NHC over the past few seasons. So I wouldn't be looking for any change in advisory times any time soon.

[RL3AO]

So the TWD and TWO are coming out at the same time now?

[HURAKAN]

So the TWD and TWO are coming out at the same time now?

I guess that's the plan.

[Frank2]

Just a note - the 2 a.m. TWO might be almost useless for those in ET or CT, but, not so for those in other time zones - especially for those who live in the Azores or Cape Verde Islands...

[senorpepr]

Just a note - the 2 a.m. TWO might be almost useless for those in ET or CT, but, not so for those in other time zones - especially for those who live in the Azores or Cape Verde Islands...

That's an excellent point, Frank. The 06Z TWO (that comes out at 2am EDT), would come out at 6am in the Azores (DST factored) and 5am in Cape Verde.

[cycloneye]

This is what the graphics for the Tropical Weather Outlooks will look like.There will be probabilities with colors from low,medium and high.



Here are all the details of the changes in the TWO`S.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo2.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

Very similar to the Aussie system in the respect of the percentage.

[wobblehead]

Does anyone know the reasoning for this change?

[Cyclenall]

Does anyone know the reasoning for this change?

It was said in this thread 3 times already, it's because they want the media to have time to report it if they want to.

[Brent]

This doesn't bother me, I'm up at 2am anyway.

[HURAKAN]

This doesn't bother me, I'm up at 2am anyway.

Lucky you

[RL3AO]

Using colored levels to organize the likelihood of a disturbance developing? What a great, original idea from the NHC.

[JonathanBelles]

I like the colorized Graphical TWO's