Tropical cyclones showing up on GFS again

[hurricanetrack]

Even though it is not likely to happen, kind of like West Virginia winning it all in a couple of weeks, the GFS is starting to show tropical cyclones at the end of its runs as of late. I always like seeing this as it means a return to warmer weather overall and that the tropics are at least starting their gradual warm up to the hurricane season.

One item of note- this time it might not be completely as far fetched an idea that something could get going in April since SSTs in this general area, especially just off of Africa and extending westward for a few hundred miles, are above normal.

Just something neat to see as the seasons change, perhaps that's all it will be- until after June 1.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd have bet money the Canadian Global would be the first to pull the trigger.


I don't understand the point of running the GFS, especially with the wave number cut in half after 180 hours, down to 190, or about 50 mile grids for resolution.


Keep it at maximum resolution and run it to 240 hours, is how I'd do it.

[Ivanhater]

Hell of a Bermuda high

[Cyclenall]

So that model run is showing a Cape Verde or central Atlantic system in 384 hours? That would be incredibly entertaining if that happened.

[hurricanetrack]

Ed, I agree with you. Not sure what the point of a 384 model is, but then again, it does keep things exciting, more like addictive...

We'll see more and more of this thing as we get closer to June. Ah, the time is almost upon us...

[Ed Mahmoud]

On the one hand, shear looks strong, and the ITCZ is pretty supressed, but a decent looking wave for so early in the seasonis about to push off Africa, it would appear.

[cycloneye]

I will believe it when it becomes a reallity.

[cycloneye]

On the one hand, shear looks strong, and the ITCZ is pretty supressed, but a decent looking wave for so early in the seasonis about to push off Africa, it would appear.

Here is a good shot of inland Africa.



And a good shot of the area off Africa.

[MiamiensisWx]

Forget it. There will be nothing in the area, and shear will still remain high with troughs penetrating the deep tropics (as per usual) in April.

Why would anyone "won't believe it until it becomes a reality"? Why would you wait in the first place?

[george_r_1961]

ITCZ is active and slowly migrating northward. This is pretty much normal for this time of year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I predict the first named storm, Arthur, the second week of August, almost five months away.



No science involved. But remember Miss Cleo, the lady with psychic friends and a faux Jamaican accent? This is at least as reliable as any long term weather predictions she made.

[ROCK]

I predict the first named storm, Arthur, the second week of August, almost five months away.



No science involved. But remember Miss Cleo, the lady with psychic friends and a faux Jamaican accent? This is at least as reliable as any long term weather predictions she made.

thats a aweful long time until the first storm Ed. Not sure I would bet my hat on that happening....

[Ed Mahmoud]

No TC today, although a decent tropical wave for early April shown in the mid-Atlantic.

[Duddy]

God I love this time of year!!!!

[Category 5]

Even though it is not likely to happen, kind of like West Virginia winning it all in a couple of weeks

That answers that then.

But seriously, I don't usually put too much into the GFS. Especially at 384 hours and ESPECIALLY with something as odd as this. It almost sounds like that new RaZr model that was unveiled right in storm2k's very own chatroom last year.

But you just never know, I give it a 0.0000000000000000000000001% chance.