Dr Jeff Masters 2008 Hurricane Season Outlook

[cycloneye]

He talks of maybe more homegrown formations in 2008,less African Dust,near average MDR ssts but more warmer ssts in GOM and Bahamas.Read his 2008 Hurricane Season Outlook at link below.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200804

[HURAKAN]

Looks like 2008 could provide a few more records for the history books. Lets see what happens.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm a huge fan of Doctor Masters. I've read his blog religiously for the last couple of years (at least every few days, during slow periods during the season). Thanks for posting this link, and bringing this forecast to our attention Cycloneye.

[RL3AO]

I went back though 1985 to look at the ENSO effects on the season. I counted it as a La Nina year if the ASO and SON three month averages were -0.5C or lower. El Nino was if the ASO and SON three month averages were 0.5C or higher. Neutral was all other years. Average is 11/6/2.

El Nino
8 seasons (86, 87, 91, 94, 97, 02, 04, 06)
2 seasons above average based on number of named storms (2002, 2004)
1 season above average based on number of hurricanes (2004)
Average of 8 seasons: 9.63/4.25/1.75

La Nina
5 seasons (88, 95, 98, 99, 07)
All seasons above average based on number of named storms
Average of 5 seasons: 14.4/8/3.6

Neutral
10 seasons (85, 89, 90, 92, 93, 96, 00, 01, 03, 05)
8 seasons above average based on number of named storms (all but 1992 and 1993)
8 seasons above average based on number of hurricanes(all but 1992 and 1993)
Average of 10 seasons: 13.8/7.8/3.4

If you remove the most active season from all three groups:
El Nino: 2004 (19/9/6)
La Nina: 1995 (19/11/5)
Neutral: 2005 (28/15/7)

New averages
El Nino: 8.29/3.57/1.14
La Nina: 13.25/7.25/3.25
Neutral: 12.22/7/3

[hurricanetrack]

Sorry to nit-pick here, but he did not make a forecast, per se. In fact, he says that we should put little faith in CSU and TSR's forecasts as of April since this month there are not a lot of reliable clues.

Just making sure people realize that the link to Dr. Masters' blog is not his 2008 hurricane season forecast.

On the other hand, it is great that Luis found this and posted it here as the blog does contain excellent information....

[cycloneye]

Sorry to nit-pick here, but he did not make a forecast, per se. In fact, he says that we should put little faith in CSU and TSR's forecasts as of April since this month there are not a lot of reliable clues.

Just making sure people realize that the link to Dr. Masters' blog is not his 2008 hurricane season forecast.

On the other hand, it is great that Luis found this and posted it here as the blog does contain excellent information....

Thanks Mark for the heads up.I edited and added Outlook instead of forecast.

[MiamiensisWx]

I see a few mistakes in Jeff Masters' analysis. For example, he states that some forecasting firms such as TSR are indicating a weaker Bermuda ridge. He misidentified the Azores ridge as the Bermuda ridge. The Azores ridge is permanent and encompasses the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic, while the Bermuda (or Southeast) ridge is semi-permanent off the East Coast of the United States. Only the strength of the Azores ridge affects the low-level trade winds and subsidence in the MDR, which affects Cape Verde tropical cyclogenesis. TSR was explicitly referring to a weaker Azores ridge, which supports more development further east and higher ACE than 2007. It does not neccessarily imply a weaker or stronger Bermuda ridge.

Additionally, I think Jeff falls into the "SSTA" trap. Everyone tends to make early comments about the "warmth" in the Gulf of Mexico and conclude that it could potentially lead to more development in the vicinity. I think the year-round threshold is always sufficient for development in the Caribbean, and it is also conducive for development in the western half of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico during a significant portion of the year. In other words, SSTA are typically sufficient for development most of the time. It's hardly "breaking news". Other factors are far more influential on cyclogenesis. Climatology is also important. For example, a weakening shortwave trough in the NW Caribbean in June frequently serves as a "focal point" for development.

SSTA also fades in importance when you consider the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) and the depth of the 26 degree C isotherm. Those are far more crucial than SSTA.

[RL3AO]

I always thought the Bermuda high and Azores high were the same.

[Ptarmigan]

Read the blog. 2006 had some of the warmest SST, but it was normal, due to El Nino. On the other hand, 2004 was active and we were going into El Nino that time. SST and ENSO is not everything. Also, you have NAO, PDO, PNA, NPI, and QBO.

NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation
PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PNA-Pacific North American
NPI-North Pacific Index, involves Aleutian Low
QBO-Quasi-biennial oscillation

Also, it depends on the Sahel region. If it is wetter, less likely for dust to blow over the Atlantic, which played a role in 2006. 2004 had less Sahel dust.

[tolakram]

I see a few mistakes in Jeff Masters' analysis. For example, he states that some forecasting firms such as TSR are indicating a weaker Bermuda ridge. He misidentified the Azores ridge as the Bermuda ridge.

Can you point to some evidence of this? I see what Masters says but I can't find any mention of any ridge in the TSR forecast. Furthermore:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores_High

The Azores High, also known as the Bermuda High in the United States, is a large subtropical semi-permanent centre of high atmospheric pressure found near the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean, at the Horse latitudes. It forms one pole of the North Atlantic oscillation, the other being the Icelandic Low. The system influences the weather and climatic patterns of vast areas of North Africa and Europe. The aridity of the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Basin is due to the subsidence of air in the system.

Is this article incorrect?

[x-y-no]

I've always understood the Bermuda High as generally being a second cell. They do sometimes link up, but for the most part there's a weakness out there in the mid-Atlantic in-between them.

And the Azores high is permanent whilst the Bermuda high does vanish at times.

[OuterBanker]

From NOAA:

Bermuda High
A semi-permanent, subtropical area of high pressure in the North Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of North America that migrates east and west with varying central pressure. Depending on the season, it has different names. When it is displaced westward, during the Northern Hemispheric summer and fall, the center is located in the western North Atlantic, near Bermuda. In the winter and early spring, it is primarily centered near the Azores in the eastern part of the North Atlantic. Also known as Azores High.

Yep, I'm confused too.

[OuterBanker]

The way it reads is that this time of year it is the Azores high. But come summer it is the Bermuda high.

[OuterBanker]

I always thought of them as two separate highs. The Azores dominates in the winter and spring and when summer comes the Bermuda takes over and becomes the dominant one. This sounds as if there is only one the migrates back and forth.

I'd better stop, my brain is full

[JonathanBelles]

Ive always thought the Azores High and the Bermuda High were the same high, named (the only difference) by their location.

[boca]

In the summer sometimes their are two high pressures out there with a weakness between them usually pulling a hurricane northward between the two cells. They both can't be called the Bermuda high.

[wxman57]

I've always called the semi-permanent high over the Atlantic Subtropics the "Azores-Bermuda High", or "Bermuda High" for short. It extends all across the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

Is there any realtionship between a La nina event and a weaker Azore-bermuda high?

[cycloneye]

In all the discussions of systems,NHC calls the highs,Subtropical Ridge. I posted a small portion of a discussion of Hurricane Frances.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN.