EPAC blobs

[tolakram]

I'm not used to looking at the EPAC so help me out here.

I've noticed mention in the discussion about a low forming and some blobs on the sat pic





The blob to the right side of the pic in particular. What should we look for in terms of possible systems? Do they have to be a lot further north (away from the equator) to have a chance?


Of course after posting this I find some good info:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html

Always above 10N with a few dramatic exceptions. 1992 was a heck of a year.

[RL3AO]

I think the water has warmed in that area recently, but I don't think the warmth is that deep. Also, the EPac sticks to the calendar. In the satellite era, only two storms have formed before the start of the season (May 15), that would be Alma on May 12, 1990 and an unnamed storm on May 13, 1996. So a storm in April would actually be shocking.

[HURAKAN]

Based on archived records, a TC is more likely to form in the Atlantic than in the EPAC in the month of April. The answer of why this happens is the fact that many TCs in the Atlantic form from non-tropical low pressure systems (Ana 2003 & ST 1 1992). It will be extremely rare to see an extratropical cyclone to drop far south enough in the EPAC for SST to be favorable for a transition.

[HurricaneRobert]

If it's subtropical and at a high latitude they might not know what to do with it.

[HURAKAN]

If it's subtropical and at a high latitude they might not know what to do with it.

Very cold SST in the subtropics.

[CrazyC83]

Not too surprised, since the EPAC season tend to go 3-5 weeks earlier than the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

If it's subtropical and at a high latitude they might not know what to do with it.

Very cold SST in the subtropics.

That's colder than normal, right? If so, I think the EPAC season will be pretty slow...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Normal to slightly above in the East Pac tropical development regions

[KWT]

Yep but well below average over the western part of the basin so I wouldn't think there will be too many in the way of very long trackers this season out there however of course to base a season on SSTA isn't the best thing to do I suppose.