NW Carib?

[fci]

Interesting tidbit tossed into the TD Alma discussion about area in NW Carib.

"It is interesting to note that a large area of disturbed weather...
associated largely with a tropical wave...prevails over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. This activity is expected to move over
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours and will be
monitored for signs of development. "

[KWT]

Yep thats being watched in this thread here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100933&start=1380

[gatorcane]

Although we have mentioned this in the Western Caribbean thread I'm glad somebody opened up a new thread. How big can the Western Caribbean models thread get anyway

[cycloneye]

The members can post here comments about the NW Caribbean,and leave the big thread to post model runs only.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[KWT]

Ok that sounds fair enough.

Looks like the whole region will remain in a broad region of lower pressure and so whilst the current eddy that is present may end up inland over central America eventually I wouldn't be surprised to see one area eventually consolidate, quite possibly as a tropical wave comes through and when it does thats when we will have to really watch it.

As someone else said on the other thread I think it does still bears watching because something could yet develop from the region of lower pressure...plus there is still a risk that the low pressure that may have recently formed in the Goh could yet re-locate towards the plusing convection sweeping towards the west.

All in all still very interesting set-up.

[gatorcane]

from the discussion above, it doesn't appear this area is destined for BOC or Mexico as previously though this morning, it just lingers around for 5 days so I declare another Bear Watch:

MEDIUM
AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THIS SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST
FIVE DAYS. EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RISK OF A SECONDARY/NEW CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT IT IS A FEATURE THAT
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN BELIZE

[gatorcane]

Well its pretty clear a Low is trying to organize now in the Gulf of Honduras. To me its increasing in organization but fortunately it is running out of real estate. Like the Nicaraguan low that was starting to get its act together before Alma, this low appears to be heading to the Central American graveyard......but looking better for sure this afternoon.

I'd like to know what would have happened if it took more of a northerly direction or spun in the open waters of the NW Caribbean for a few days.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of area in Gulf of Honduras,east of Belize.

[KWT]

Yep its going to head inland pretty soon unless the system tries to reform eastwards over the next few hours. Still if this region of lower pressure remains then eventually something is going to form I'd have thought.

[gatorcane]

Latest TAFB surface analysis Leaves a stationary low in the BOC after 72 hours:

[KWT]

Yeah the GFDL earlier this morning showed the same thing with a weak low, possibly tropical system just staying off-shore in the BoC, thats an option that could possibly happen though I think with the upper high where it is it may not re-emerge off land once on.

[Stratosphere747]

EURO all the way back on the 23rd showed the remnants moving into the BOC. Not sure what's everyones fascination with the GFS suite.

[KWT]

Yep indeed the Euro has done very well with this though at times it did seem like it was hedging its bets with regards to developing both Alma on one run then a Caribbean system the next run but overall it did do well on the runs that it forecasted Alma to form. UKMO also did well with the development of this system and the rapid development it showed.

[gatorcane]

That is some ridge over the GOM all the way to the Bahamas for this time of year. Notice how in this WV image, no moisture can get north of about 24 N over a 1000 mile span. I would expect something like this maybe in July or August but not end of May.

Florida could really use this moisture but this ridge is just way too dominant at this time:

[KWT]

Wow thats very impressive indeed, if that pattern set-up for the summer it would be good for the states though it must be said.

Interesting little blob also in the EPAC as well I note, though the main are aof instablity still presently in the Caribbean. Still needs to be watched.

[fci]

Well, this is the time of year that anything that would develop would be in NW/SW Carib. so it is something to peak some early interest.

[djones65]

This system is now designated Atlantic Invest 90L!!!
It is up on the NRL site!

[KWT]

Yep this thread should be locked as welll.