If persistence pays, what does SFla's winter-spring say?

[Recurve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

South of 25 N here, the patterns for the winter were: extremely warm, moderately dry and windy. We had highs in control most of the winter and spring, blocking typical winter frontal passages until almost April. Many windy days as strong highs to the south and lows to the north put the Staits under tight gradients. If you want to see long-range conspiracies, the continental weather pattern is moving north. May be nonrelated, but the extreme low trackers of last season and a nearly tropical winter here suggest a shift northward of the mid-latitude patterns.

Fronts have had a hard time making it to South Florida. I expect Cape Verde systems are going to recurve early or not at all. Caribbean development is going to go straight west, rarely north if there's any weakness available. Bahamas-region systems are going to go west-southwest and then recurve into the least likely place, the Big Bend. Just speculation, but what do patterns you've seen the last six months tell you? Because I figure, whatever we've been having, we're going to have for a while longer.

[boca]

Well we won't have to worry about troughs dipping down and basically a zonal pattern so if something would to form in the Bahamas west bound it would travel.

[Patrick99]

It's funny, fronts HAD a hard time making it through for most of the real winter months, but then come April and especially May, the fronts came through with impunity and (unfortunately) dried everything out. In this area, it seems that we still haven't really recovered the moisture from the last dry front. Not really a typical rainy season June pattern right now; things still seem drier than usual for this time of year. Dewpoints have been over 70 for several days now, but it isn't really translating into any rain.

[TheShrimper]

Your analysis is jumbled Recurve, I am having a hard time understanding what you are getting at. Firstly, it froze here on Pine Island this winter, pipes broke. Secondly, what dynamics are going to send something in the Bahamas SW and then turn it NE in the gulf to impact Eastpoint to Cedar Key? There has to be a major weakness for this button hook to take place. When we were sub freezing here this winter, I know the Keys were cold as well. I have many friends in the Redlands and Homestead that are growers, and there was damage done to the vegatables and ornamentals. There may be some CV lowrunners, but not to the extreme of last year. Let things pan out, what's gonna happen in gonna do so. My take is that it isn't going to be as tranquil as last year. If that is true, no big deal...you'll be ready as I will, and everyone else will as well. Speculation at this point in time is just that. Let's wait till something is worthy of our attention. TheShrimper.

[gatorcane]

The Lushine Dry May Theory suggest South Florida is at a higher risk for a hurricane strike this season because May rainfall fell far short of the 5 inch threshold purported by the theory.

But again this is just theory so we'll see how it plays out and whether it verifies or not.

[boca]

If persistance pays we should be able to walk across Lake Okeechobee by Sept if it stays dry like this the lake level is at 9.53ft.and dropping quickly.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[Frank2]

Jim's a real nice fella and I wouldn't want to disagree, but, there have been many years that included a dry May, but, did not include a landfalling hurricane in Florida...

Just off the top of my head (which is where most of my brain cells are - LOL), May, 1977 was fairly dry down here, but, the season was absent any tropical activity in this region...

Especially since the climate is tending towards drought in many places, perhaps due to global warming, the theory of drought and storm might no longer apply...

[gatorcane]

Frank, 1977 had 15.82 inches of rain recorded in Miami thus making it an extremely wet May.

[fci]

Your analysis is jumbled Recurve, I am having a hard time understanding what you are getting at. Firstly, it froze here on Pine Island this winter, pipes broke. Secondly, what dynamics are going to send something in the Bahamas SW and then turn it NE in the gulf to impact Eastpoint to Cedar Key? There has to be a major weakness for this button hook to take place. When we were sub freezing here this winter, I know the Keys were cold as well. I have many friends in the Redlands and Homestead that are growers, and there was damage done to the vegatables and ornamentals. There may be some CV lowrunners, but not to the extreme of last year. Let things pan out, what's gonna happen in gonna do so. My take is that it isn't going to be as tranquil as last year. If that is true, no big deal...you'll be ready as I will, and everyone else will as well. Speculation at this point in time is just that. Let's wait till something is worthy of our attention. TheShrimper.

I'm not sure where Pine Island is and I do know where Homestead and The Redlands are and I don't recall any freezes down here this winter.
I live in Palm Beach County and know that we can get a freeze every once in a while in the winter and that this winter did not have one single freeze recorded at the West Palm Airport.
The lowest in 2008 was 35 on 1/3/08.
Yes, temps will be lower in the growing areas far inland howver, for damage to be done takes a freeze of long duration and if it wasn't freezing at the recording stations at all then it did not freeze long enough inland to cause any significant damage!

At Miami (closest to Homestead and The Redlands) the lowest temp this year has been 39 also on 1/3/08.

I think you are mistaken in your observation that there was freeze damage in Southern Dade County when the lowest Miami Airport hit was 39, well above freezing. Temps in Homestead and The Redlands are not 10 degrees colder than the airport. I was born and raised in Miami and that just is not the case.

I respectfully disagree with your sub-freezing statement.

As for the correlation between Hurricane activity and our Winter weather, I am also not convinced...

[Frank2]

fci,

Since this area's Pine Island (Ridge) did not see freezing temps this winter, I'm guessing he's referring to this Pine Island (there is more than one in South Florida - actually, 3 by my count)...

P.S. You know, Gatorcane, you're right - I was rained out a few times in May 1977, when attempting to lead my first bicycle club ride - I think that I finally was able to lead the ride in June.

But, perhaps since it's been 31 years, I'm off a bit (no laughing) in my estimate - I do recall that it was in June and July of '77 that things became pretty dry and HOT, but, not extremely dry. In fact, September had many afternoon thunderstorms, and, I was caught out in Everglades National Park one Sunday afternoon, during a real toad-strangler - I ended up "babysitting" two children, who's Dad was off on a bicycle club ride, and, the two children and myself ended up alone in the parking lot of the ride's rest stop, huddled inside the car, while the thunderstorm (with lots of cloud-to-ground lightning) pounded the area.

They were getting pretty scared (both being about 7 or 8 or so - they'd be close to 40 now - ouch), but, I was more excited about having the "total Florida experience", as a friend of mine once said, since there we were, in the middle of the Everglades (19 miles from the park entrance) in the middle of a heavy thunderstorm...

A nice memory, actually...

P.P.S. The only major activity that season was Category 5 Anita (the HRD made many flights into that, as I found out a few years later), which made landfall well south of Brownsville:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Anita

[TheShrimper]

Frank, please refrain from exploiting Pine Island any more than you already have. We have remained unchanged for decades untill recently, when many from your side of the state migrated over here and are in the process of destroying all that has been established for years. We don't need anymore of the east coast influence infringing on us. All you had to state was where it is located, and not mimick a Chamber ad. We have enough problems of our own, and we damn sure don't need yours. And fci, I didn't claim it was sub freezing over in the Redlands, I said there was cold related damage. All the areca palms and ornamentals that were shipped over here from Costa Farms, Morningstar Nursery to the Home Depots and Lowes, were all cold burned. The beans took a major hit, and all you had to do was go west of Redland Rd. and talk to some of the growers and you would be set straight. You weren't there, neither was I, but I know growers and owners of eateries that contradict what you are saying. And I have personally felt a 7 degree temp swing between the official Homestead readings and what is read well west of Krome Ave., if not more. TheShrimper

[Frank2]

All I was doing was giving the board a reference, in response to an earlier board question, to the part of South Florida you MIGHT call home, and, thought you'd appreciate the web site mention. I'm sorry that you considered it intrusive to the point of being offensive, though I find the offense hard to comprehend...

To preserve your privacy, I've removed the earlier link to the web site created for your community...

In reference to your comment, it's the residents who descended from pioneer families that are largely to blame for what has happened down here - many were land owners (Kendall, Davis, Deering, Pennykamp, etc.) that sold out large tracks of land for development, just to make a fortune - then (some) had the nerve to turn around and complain when everyone started moving here...

Apparently, they overlook the fact that if no one had come, then, their land would have been almost worthless in monetary value...

And, just to let you know that I'm not clueless - an old friend of mine was one of Marjory Stoneman Douglas's personal friends, and, was also one of a small group of dedicated friends and caregivers to Mrs. Douglas, until her death at the age of 108, their friendship beginning after our meeting with Marjory in the late 1970's, when she was a guest speaker at our club's monthly meeting (this same friend of mine was also a friend to Arthur Marshall, who was a guest at one of our picnics, and, who's name is now given to the Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge). I'd like to think that I'm reasonably well connected when it comes to our environment, and, not a day goes by that I don't lament over the ruination of South Florida, and, the peninsula as a whole, so, please don't tell me about what has happened down here - I'm all too aware of what has happened to my beloved Florida pines...

Frank

P.S. Sorry to get off-topic, admin...

[fci]

Frank, please refrain from exploiting Pine Island any more than you already have. We have remained unchanged for decades untill recently, when many from your side of the state migrated over here and are in the process of destroying all that has been established for years. We don't need anymore of the east coast influence infringing on us. All you had to state was where it is located, and not mimick a Chamber ad. We have enough problems of our own, and we damn sure don't need yours. And fci, I didn't claim it was sub freezing over in the Redlands, I said there was cold related damage. All the areca palms and ornamentals that were shipped over here from Costa Farms, Morningstar Nursery to the Home Depots and Lowes, were all cold burned. The beans took a major hit, and all you had to do was go west of Redland Rd. and talk to some of the growers and you would be set straight. You weren't there, neither was I, but I know growers and owners of eateries that contradict what you are saying. And I have personally felt a 7 degree temp swing between the official Homestead readings and what is read well west of Krome Ave., if not more. TheShrimper

The Shrimper:
I am not real familiar with you although I have seen some of your posts in the past.
I don't know why you are so angry at comments made by Frank and myself but I guess there is some history that I am unaware of yet it does surprise me (I picture you getting red in the face as you type...)

Anyway, to address your reaction to only my comments:
"And fci, I didn't claim it was sub freezing over in the Redlands, I said there was cold related damage"

Well to quote your prior post:
"Firstly, it froze here on Pine Island this winter, pipes broke. "

So, The Shrimper:
WHICH IS IT??

Your comment:
" but I know growers and owners of eateries that contradict what you are saying."

So what is it that I said that they would contradict?
That there was not a freeze this past winter?
If Miami's lowest temp was 39 and you have "personally felt a 7 degree temp swing between the official Homestead readings and what is read well west of Krome Ave.,", then that takes the temp BRIEFLY to 32. Not a hard freeze and hardly the cause of a lot of damage.

As a sidebar; I am wondering how you got an internal thermometer installed to where you can measure the temp difference PERSONALLY? You sure it was not 5 or 10????

Seriously, maybe you are talking about vegetation that can be affected by cold temperatures that are above freezing and are from the tropics where temps never go below 50 or so.

Bottom line is that I think you misrepresented your thoughts when you boldly proclaimed that it was a cold winter and that it froze where you live in Pine Island (which you have now clearly defended to the "supposed" attacks from Frank). All I refuted was the "freeze" part and I presented it with statistical proof. It had just hit me funny since I was also of the impression that we had a mild winter here and having been born here, remembered a lot of freezes of which there were none this year.

fci

[Frank2]

I'll just jump in for a second and mention that if the house is a "Stiltsville"-type raised house with exposed pipes, then it's possible that they could freeze, even when the temperature is at or just below freezing...

During the Winter, the Naples Municipal Airport observation can be, from what I've noticed over the many years, as much as 8 degrees lower than the observed air temperature at Miami International Airport (the observation at Tamiami Airport being closer to the Naples temperature), especially if there is cold-air drainage in the early morning hours, when Naples experiences a light northeasterly or easterly nighttime land breeze off the western Everglades, so, that is almost identical to the temperature difference of 7 degrees that Shrimper observed...

I once knew a long-time Redland resident who's opinion was also similar to Shrimper's when it came to "Miami's problems", but, after a few years (years), he came to understand that we also wanted to keep the area rural, and, eventually looked forward to our visits to his roadside business, since he realized that our presence did not mean that the Redland was about to be paved over, as it is becoming today...

Do I like the South Florida of 2008 - no - do I long for a DeLorean to take me back to 30 or 40 years ago - yes, but, since that does not exist (though I did get to sit in a new DeLorean about 25 years ago, at least for a few minutes), as Esther Walton would say, we have to "make do"...

P.S. Sorry again, admin...