Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

I clocked 32 mph in a gust as a heavy thundershower passed by.

[Meso]

My girlfriend is actually currently in San Juan and has also been telling me of the thunderstorms which have been passing by today.Apparently some strong ones.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My girlfriend is actually currently in San Juan and has also been telling me of the thunderstorms which have been passing by today.Apparently some strong ones.

I changed planes as an 8 year old in San Juan on the way to Curacoa with my family, but have never been. About the only place Americans can visit now without a passport. If they ever vote for complete independence, there'd be no place to visit. My wife's grandfather, "Popo", used to take me into Tamaulipas when we were visiting family in the Rio Grande Valley, and get me kind of drunk and buy me Cuban cigars. But besides the passport requirement, los abuelos find soldiers in trucks with mounted automatic weapons disconcerting.

I'd tour the rum factories, for sure.



Back to the weather, this wave is supposed to, per GFS, bring a surge of moisture to Texas next weekend, and we could use the rain.

[KWT]

Some decent looking cells with this wave, evidently being sheared to a great degree but still giving some good rainfalls. In some ways its a good job the shear was in place because given its still developing pretty decent convection it could have done something if it was later in the season with less shear.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SQUALLS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THIS WAVE TOMORROW. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND FOR ALL ELEVATIONS OF THE VI FOR EXPECTED BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM AST. IN
ADDITION...EXTENDED THE MWS FOR THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
AST FOR WEATHER AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING WAVE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS HAS BEEN
BRISK...WHICH HAS HELPED TO MINIMIZE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...FOCUS OF FORECAST
TODAY WAS ON THE SHORT TERM AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED
FORECAST IN LATEST UPDATE.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from Key west as it mentions the wave now in the Eastern Caribbean:

000
FXUS62 KKEY 231942
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
341 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY IN THE ISLANDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH ON
LAND...AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THE REEF. RECENT SHIP REPORTS IN THE
STRAITS SHOWED 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.
THESE REPORTS INVARIABLY PROVE HELPFUL.

OUR RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF CARYSFORT
REEF LIGHT. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTH.
&&

.ANALYSIS...
THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY LIES VERY NEAR THE KEYS TODAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AT H7 AND H5 CONTINUES IN OUR VICINITY WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP
RAIN-BEARING CLOUDS AT BAY. EVEN THE MAINLAND IS QUIET (SO FAR).
THIS SHOWS UP ON OUR MORNING SOUNDING AS A SLIGHT NEGATIVE AREA
AFTER MODIFYING FOR HEATING -- A BLEND OF MAX TEMP AND SEA WATER
TEMP PUTS ON THE 302K ADIABAT. WE NEED 305K TO BREAK THIS CAP
ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER BY NOW.
&&

.FORECASTS...
GIVEN THE STATIC STABILITY IN PLACE WE WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

GRADUALLY THIS STABILITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROF IN THE EASTERN STATES BREAKS DOWN...THE
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE COMMUNICATED INTO OUR REGION AND OUR LOCAL
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A CONSEQUENCE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WHILE ALSO DISPLACING THE AXIS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE PENINSULA.

THUS BY WEDNESDAY THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR A WAVE TO APPROACH OUT
OF CARIBBEAN BRINGING US SOME REAL RAIN CHANCES. GUIDANCE (GFS)
OFFERS 60 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT
UP 40 PERCENT AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AS WE GO ALONG. TAFB ANALYSES
THIS WAVE NEAR BARBADOS AT 60W TODAY AND IT IS APPARENT IN THE
IMAGERY.

GUIDANCE ALSO INCREASES OUR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE WAVE`S
REINFORCING OUR EASTERLIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
CASE FOR SMALL-CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY TOO. WE
NEED TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STRUCTURE OF THE FEATURE...AND AS
IT IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK...MORE HARD DATA WILL
BE AVAILABLE TOMORROW. THE BRIDGETOWN SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING WAS
NOT TOO ENCOURAGING BUT SAN JUAN LOOKED BETTER WITH LOTS OF EAST
WIND.

[srainhoutx]

Discussion from Key west as it mentions the wave now in the Eastern Caribbean:

000
FXUS62 KKEY 231942
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
341 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY IN THE ISLANDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH ON
LAND...AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THE REEF. RECENT SHIP REPORTS IN THE
STRAITS SHOWED 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.
THESE REPORTS INVARIABLY PROVE HELPFUL.

OUR RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF CARYSFORT
REEF LIGHT. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTH.
&&

.ANALYSIS...
THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM
YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY LIES VERY NEAR THE KEYS TODAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AT H7 AND H5 CONTINUES IN OUR VICINITY WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP
RAIN-BEARING CLOUDS AT BAY. EVEN THE MAINLAND IS QUIET (SO FAR).
THIS SHOWS UP ON OUR MORNING SOUNDING AS A SLIGHT NEGATIVE AREA
AFTER MODIFYING FOR HEATING -- A BLEND OF MAX TEMP AND SEA WATER
TEMP PUTS ON THE 302K ADIABAT. WE NEED 305K TO BREAK THIS CAP
ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER BY NOW.
&&

.FORECASTS...
GIVEN THE STATIC STABILITY IN PLACE WE WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

GRADUALLY THIS STABILITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROF IN THE EASTERN STATES BREAKS DOWN...THE
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE COMMUNICATED INTO OUR REGION AND OUR LOCAL
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A CONSEQUENCE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH WHILE ALSO DISPLACING THE AXIS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE PENINSULA.

THUS BY WEDNESDAY THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR A WAVE TO APPROACH OUT
OF CARIBBEAN BRINGING US SOME REAL RAIN CHANCES. GUIDANCE (GFS)
OFFERS 60 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT
UP 40 PERCENT AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AS WE GO ALONG. TAFB ANALYSES
THIS WAVE NEAR BARBADOS AT 60W TODAY AND IT IS APPARENT IN THE
IMAGERY.

GUIDANCE ALSO INCREASES OUR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE WAVE`S
REINFORCING OUR EASTERLIES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
CASE FOR SMALL-CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY TOO. WE
NEED TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STRUCTURE OF THE FEATURE...AND AS
IT IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK...MORE HARD DATA WILL
BE AVAILABLE TOMORROW. THE BRIDGETOWN SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING WAS
NOT TOO ENCOURAGING BUT SAN JUAN LOOKED BETTER WITH LOTS OF EAST
WIND.

Great bunch of forecasters at EYW. Tough place at times to "get it right". Folks forget that there are big military assets in the Lower Keys.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
EXTENDING OUT TO 40 NM

* UNTIL 9 PM AST

* AT 7:52 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. DURING THE PASSAGE OF ONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE AIRPORT IN ST THOMAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS.

MARINERS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 45 KNOTS...STEEP AND HIGH WAVES GREATER THAN 8 FEET...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[bvigal]

Wow! That was some mess tonight. Was downtown at meeting when it hit, waited almost an hour for it to letup so I could drive up the hill, because I knew there would be a torrent coming down, and rocks, too, since we've not had regular, decent rain for some time. Coming up the hill, lightning about every 2-4 seconds. Who needs street lights? A 80' big crewed charter yacht today here, owners and captain friends of mine, measured 44kt gust near our airport. Friday a 37ft yacht was knocked down by wind gust, and since they had their hatches open, sank in 1 minute. duhhhh. ("hey, it's rental, man") they are lucky to be alive, we knew squalls would contain very strong gusts. on my laptop using wireless, didn't want to 'plug in' until lightning lets up. MJ, you must have got it, too. Luis, this one that just hit us looks like it missed PR, maybe Fajardo area.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
EXTENDING OUT TO 40 NM

* UNTIL 9 PM AST

* AT 7:52 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. DURING THE PASSAGE OF ONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE AIRPORT IN ST THOMAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS.

MARINERS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 45 KNOTS...STEEP AND HIGH WAVES GREATER THAN 8 FEET...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

Wow! That was some mess tonight. Was downtown at meeting when it hit, waited almost an hour for it to letup so I could drive up the hill, because I knew there would be a torrent coming down, and rocks, too, since we've not had regular, decent rain for some time. Coming up the hill, lightning about every 2-4 seconds. Who needs street lights? A 80' big crewed charter yacht today here, owners and captain friends of mine, measured 44kt gust near our airport. Friday a 37ft yacht was knocked down by wind gust, and since they had their hatches open, sank in 1 minute. duhhhh. ("hey, it's rental, man") they are lucky to be alive, we knew squalls would contain very strong gusts. on my laptop using wireless, didn't want to 'plug in' until lightning lets up. MJ, you must have got it, too. Luis, this one that just hit us looks like it missed PR, maybe Fajardo area.
Wow! That was some mess tonight. Was downtown at meeting when it hit, waited almost an hour for it to letup so I could drive up the hill, because I knew there would be a torrent coming down, and rocks, too, since we've not had regular, decent rain for some time. Coming up the hill, lightning about every 2-4 seconds. Who needs street lights? A 80' big crewed charter yacht today here, owners and captain friends of mine, measured 44kt gust near our airport. Friday a 37ft yacht was knocked down by wind gust, and since they had their hatches open, sank in 1 minute. duhhhh. ("hey, it's rental, man") they are lucky to be alive, we knew squalls would contain very strong gusts. on my laptop using wireless, didn't want to 'plug in' until lightning lets up. MJ, you must have got it, too. Luis, this one that just hit us looks like it missed PR, maybe Fajardo area.

Posted: Mon Jun 23,

amazing and only in June my friends with "simples waves" i'm dubfull ( amazed a bit) very convectives waves these last 4 last days, the power of the gusts are very strong reading your replies, hopefully at's not a Gustywind . Back to the topic...hope that we have erase our drought and the others carib residents too, tkanks , gracias la lluvia

[Gustywind]

AWCA82 TJSJ 232009
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE NWS DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS
EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND FOR ALL
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE MAXIMUM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY RANGED FROM 0.75 TO AROUND 1.50 INCH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS...FAST MOVING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS.

$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
910 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
THE NEAR SHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CULEBRA TO THE
MOUTH OF RIO GUAJATACA AT QUEBRADILLAS...OUT TO 40 NM

* UNTIL 10:15 PM AST.

* AT 9:10 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SQUALLS AND CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT
25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH ONE LONG SOLID LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST A FEW
MILES OFF SHORE OF CAROLINA TO JUST A FEW MILES OFF OF LUQUILLO.

MARINERS IN THIS VICINITY CAN EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS...STEEP AND HIGH WAVES IN EXCESS OF 8 FEET...FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 232354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E
VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 62W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
WILL REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY TUE AND EASTERN CUBA EARLY
WED. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODEL...THE WAVE MAY AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED INTO THU. OBSERVATIONS E OF THE WAVE AND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE E INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20
TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.
Waouw 13 lines....for a wave in June...definitely interresting and we should see more, take a breathe and put your belts , decent trend for these solids twave! Note how the guts are at 30 kts and higher nasty at this period...

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 240533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.


THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ALONG 62W HAS BEEN RELOCATED AHEAD NEAR 71W BASED ON
UPPER AIR TIME SERIES DATA FROM SAN JUAN ONLY. THIS DATA
INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED WAVE PASSAGE PRIOR TO 00Z 23 JUNE BUT
HAD NO INDICATIONS OF THE WAVE PASSAGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
A MAXIMUM IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. IN FACT...THE SOUNDING IN SAN
JUAN YESTERDAY MORNING REVEALED A 35 KT PEAK WIND AROUND 850 MB
AND A STRONG LAYER OF 30+ KT WINDS BETWEEN 700 MB AND 850 MB.
HOWEVER...PW VALUES DID NOT INCREASE INITIALLY BUT INSTEAD DID
SO DURING THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERED SE.